Login Register
BRAZIL › SERIE B
16.10.2026 23:30
Ilha do Retiro
Referee: Andre Luiz Skettino Policarpo Bento

Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.1%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.15
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.1%
1.36 ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.15 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.09 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sport Recife Win 46.5%
Draw 9.9%
Fortaleza EC Win 43.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sport Recife1.17
Fortaleza EC1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WWDLW
45 GF / 35 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
39 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
22
BTTS Yes
15
17
Over 2.5
12
4.24
Shots on Goal
4.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sport Recife Sport Recife 33 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 33 matches
Sport Recife Statistic Fortaleza EC
13 Wins 15
12 Draws 12
8 Losses 6
45 Goals For 39
35 Goals Against 29
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
22 BTTS Yes 15
26 Over 1.5 20
17 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 14
4 Failed To Score 8
4.24 Shots On Goal 4.06
14.18 Total Shots 13.97
4.91 Corners 5.33
54.3% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sport Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fortaleza EC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fortaleza EC. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Sport Recife Analysis

So far, Sport Recife have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 50 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses, while the 44:34 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Chrystian Barletta (8 goals), Perotti (7 goals), Neto Pessoa (3 goals), with creative support from Chrystian Barletta (4 assists), Biel (3 assists), Madson (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Placed 3 with 56 points from 32 outings, Fortaleza EC continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 15 wins, 11 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 37:27 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vitinho (6 goals), Maílton (5 goals), Luiz Fernando (3 goals), with creative support from Maílton (2 assists), Mauricio Junior (2 assists), Lucas Gazal (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sport Recife won 2 times, Fortaleza EC won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:20 from Sport Recife's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Sport Recife 4-2-3-1 / Fortaleza EC 4-3-3
H2H summary: Sport Recife wins 2, draws 3, Fortaleza EC wins 10

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 59:28 31 60
W W W D L
3 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
4 33 15 12 6 39:29 10 57
D W D D W
5 33 16 8 9 34:28 6 56
W L W W L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 33 15 7 11 51:47 4 52
D W L W L
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 10 13 10 40:39 1 43
D L L D D
14 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
15 33 11 9 13 35:40 -5 42
L W W D W
16 33 11 8 14 37:38 -1 41
W W L W D
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 33 4 5 24 21:54 -33 17
L L L L L
20 33 3 4 26 18:73 -55 13
L L L L W
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation