BRAZIL SERIE B
24.08.2026 22:30
Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho
Referee: D. Serafim
Sport Recife
Match Timeline
America Mineiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
Claudinho · Assist: Juan Alano
Sport Recife
45'
Clayson · Assist: Juan Alano
Sport Recife
VAR
58'
Kayky Almeida
America Mineiro
🔄
65'
Felipe Amaral ↔ Otavio Goncalves
America Mineiro
🔄
66'
Guilherme Parede ↔ G. Italo
America Mineiro
🔄
67'
Clayson ↔ Marlon Douglas
Sport Recife
🔄
76'
Willian Oliveira ↔ Biel Fonseca
Sport Recife
🔄
76'
Diego Hernandez ↔ Dudu
Sport Recife
🔄
78'
Willian Bigode ↔ Alex Silva
America Mineiro
🔄
82'
Juan Alano ↔ de Pena Carlos
Sport Recife
🔄
83'
Claudinho ↔ Augusto
Sport Recife
🔄
87'
Gustavo Barreto ↔ Heitor
America Mineiro
🔄
87'
Fabio ↔ M. Rodrigues
America Mineiro
VAR
90+5'
Biel Fonseca
Sport Recife
90'
Pedro Perotti
Sport Recife

Sport Recife vs America Mineiro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sport Recife Win 74%
Draw 5.2%
America Mineiro Win 20.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sport Recife1.44
America Mineiro0.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WWDLW
29 GF / 22 GA
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WLDWL
16 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
0.7
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
14
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
13
4.22
Shots on Goal
4.26

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sport Recife Sport Recife 23 matches
America Mineiro America Mineiro 23 matches
Sport Recife Statistic America Mineiro
8 Wins 2
11 Draws 5
4 Losses 16
29 Goals For 16
22 Goals Against 39
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 0.7
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
14 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 17
9 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 9
4.22 Shots On Goal 4.26
13.57 Total Shots 12.22
4.74 Corners 5.22
54.2% Ball Possession 53.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Sport Recife's more proactive style and America Mineiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors America Mineiro. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Sport Recife arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 35 points compared to America Mineiro in 19 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sport Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and America Mineiro in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward America Mineiro having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sport Recife Analysis

So far, Sport Recife have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 35 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 11 draws, and 3 losses, while the 28:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Chrystian Barletta (6 goals), Perotti (6 goals), Biel Fonseca (1 goals), with creative support from Chrystian Barletta (3 assists), Biel Fonseca (3 assists), Carlos De Pena (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

America Mineiro Analysis

America Mineiro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 11 points from 21 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 14 defeats with a 15:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gonzalo Mastriani (4 goals), Matías Segovia (2 goals), Paulo Victor (2 goals), with creative support from Matías Segovia (2 assists), Willian Bigode (2 assists), Gonzalo Mastriani (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Sport Recife won 3 times, America Mineiro won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:25 from Sport Recife's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.79 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Sport Recife 4-2-3-1 / America Mineiro 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Sport Recife wins 3, draws 4, America Mineiro wins 7

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
Promotion
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