BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
05.09.2026 16:00
Stadion Spartak
Referee: R. Gidzhenov
Spartak Varna
Match Timeline
CSKA Sofia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
I. Pittas · Assist: A. Martino
CSKA Sofia
33'
B. Hanne · Assist: Jota Lopes
Spartak Varna
🟨
36'
Ángelo Martino
CSKA Sofia
🔄
46'
F. Rodriguez ↔ J. Gbamin
CSKA Sofia
🟨
51'
Anton Ivanov
Spartak Varna
🔄
57'
M. Ebong ↔ C. Itu
CSKA Sofia
🔄
58'
R. Sousa ↔ T. Marinov
Spartak Varna
🔄
58'
Jota Lopes ↔ A. Gomes
Spartak Varna
🟨
65'
Plamen Iliev
Spartak Varna
🔄
70'
D. Valverde ↔ D. Lozev
Spartak Varna
🔄
70'
J. Eto'o ↔ I. Solet
CSKA Sofia
🟨
77'
Pastor
CSKA Sofia
🔄
77'
A. Ivanov ↔ Bua
Spartak Varna
🔄
77'
A. Ahmedov ↔ T. Chunchukov
Spartak Varna
🔄
81'
B. Jordao ↔ Leo Pereira
CSKA Sofia
🟨
90+3'
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
CSKA Sofia

Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.1%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.3%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.83
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.1%
1.22
BTTS Yes
62.3%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.83
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
3.66
HT / FT Home / Home
-
10.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
19.00
Probability Distribution
Spartak Varna Win 40%
Draw 13.9%
CSKA Sofia Win 46.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Spartak Varna1.42
CSKA Sofia1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Spartak Varna Spartak Varna
WWDLW
23 GF / 21 GA
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia
WLDWL
42 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.83
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
7
BTTS Yes
11
7
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
1.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 15 matches
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 23 matches
Spartak Varna Statistic CSKA Sofia
6 Wins 13
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 6
23 Goals For 42
21 Goals Against 29
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
7 BTTS Yes 11
9 Over 1.5 19
7 Over 2.5 17
5 Over 3.5 9
4 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 1.73
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 1.18
0% Ball Possession 14.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around CSKA Sofia's more proactive style and Spartak Varna's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward CSKA Sofia. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Spartak Varna expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and CSKA Sofia in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward CSKA Sofia having the stronger overall control. CSKA Sofia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. CSKA Sofia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 13 points while Spartak Varna sit 9 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Spartak Varna Analysis

Spartak Varna approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 7 points from 6 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 8:12 goal balance points toward mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

CSKA Sofia Analysis

CSKA Sofia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 13 points after 5 matches. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:3, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Spartak Varna won 1 times, CSKA Sofia won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:19 from Spartak Varna's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.89 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1 / CSKA Sofia 5-3-2
H2H summary: Spartak Varna wins 1, draws 1, CSKA Sofia wins 7

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 8 1 0 21:4 17 25
D W W W W
2 10 7 3 0 24:7 17 24
D W W D W
3 9 7 2 0 16:7 9 23
W W D D W
4 10 7 1 2 19:10 9 22
W W L W L
5 10 5 2 3 15:12 3 17
D L L W W
6 10 5 1 4 16:14 2 16
W W W L L
7 10 2 5 3 9:8 1 11
L D W L D
8 10 2 4 4 10:15 -5 10
L D D D L
9 10 2 3 5 9:19 -10 9
D D W L W
10 10 2 2 6 8:18 -10 8
L L L D W
11 10 1 4 5 11:18 -7 7
W L D L D
12 10 2 1 7 5:13 -8 7
D L W L L
13 10 1 3 6 11:20 -9 6
D D L L W
14 10 1 2 7 10:19 -9 5
D L L D L
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