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NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE
17.10.2026 19:00
Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel
Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.3%
Odds 1.20
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.46
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.3%
1.20 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.46 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.10 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.40 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sparta Rotterdam Win 39.6%
Draw 12.7%
Willem II Win 47.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sparta Rotterdam2.05
Willem II1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam
WWDLW
28 GF / 29 GA
Willem II Willem II
WLDWL
13 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.93
Average Goals Conceded
2.33
10
BTTS Yes
9
11
Over 2.5
9
4.75
Shots on Goal
2.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 15 matches
Willem II Willem II 12 matches
Sparta Rotterdam Statistic Willem II
4 Wins 2
5 Draws 3
6 Losses 7
28 Goals For 13
29 Goals Against 28
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.93 Avg Goals Conceded 2.33
10 BTTS Yes 9
12 Over 1.5 10
11 Over 2.5 9
10 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 2
4.75 Shots On Goal 2.63
13.75 Total Shots 11.5
6 Corners 3.88
44.3% Ball Possession 39.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Willem II. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Sparta Rotterdam Analysis

Sparta Rotterdam sit 12 with 5 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 10:17 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Zonneveld (4 goals), M. Young (2 goals), N. Þórisson (1 goals), with creative support from B. Kuipers (3 assists), S. Mito (2 assists), M. Zonneveld (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Willem II Analysis

Willem II sit 18 with 2 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats with a 6:20 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Haen (3 goals), Uriel van Aalst (1 goals), A. Ciranni (1 goals), with creative support from Uriel van Aalst (2 assists), N. Tjoe-A-On (2 assists), H. ter Avest (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Sparta Rotterdam won 9 times, Willem II won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:17 from Sparta Rotterdam's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.46 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.3%)
Predicted formations: Sparta Rotterdam 4-2-3-1 / Willem II 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sparta Rotterdam 2, Willem II 5
H2H summary: Sparta Rotterdam wins 9, draws 0, Willem II wins 4

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 2 0 27:7 20 20
W W W W D
2 8 6 1 1 26:10 16 19
W L W W W
3 8 6 1 1 18:8 10 19
L W D W W
4 8 5 2 1 16:8 8 17
D W W W D
5 8 4 3 1 22:10 12 15
D D W W L
6 8 4 2 2 20:14 6 14
W W D D L
7 8 4 2 2 14:15 -1 14
D W L W W
8 8 2 5 1 19:17 2 11
D D D D L
9 8 3 2 3 16:14 2 11
L D L D W
10 8 2 3 3 11:11 0 9
L W D L D
11 8 2 3 3 13:14 -1 9
D D L D L
12 8 2 2 4 11:19 -8 8
W D W D L
13 8 2 2 4 14:25 -11 8
W L W D L
14 8 1 3 4 13:20 -7 6
D L L D L
15 8 1 3 4 7:14 -7 6
D L D L D
16 8 1 1 6 6:21 -15 4
L L L D L
17 8 0 3 5 9:19 -10 3
D D L L D
18 8 0 2 6 7:23 -16 2
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie