ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
21.11.2026 12:30
St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton vs Derby Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
Probability Distribution
Southampton Win 0%
Draw 0%
Derby Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Southampton1.99
Derby1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Southampton Southampton
WWDLW
25 GF / 12 GA
Derby Derby
WLDWL
15 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
2.27
Average Goals Scored
1.07
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
10
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
8
4.88
Shots on Goal
3.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Southampton Southampton 11 matches
Derby Derby 14 matches
Southampton Statistic Derby
7 Wins 3
2 Draws 3
2 Losses 8
25 Goals For 15
12 Goals Against 22
2.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.07
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
10 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 2
0 Failed To Score 4
4.88 Shots On Goal 3.63
16.38 Total Shots 12.25
5.63 Corners 6.38
58.8% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Southampton won 2 times, Derby won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:9 from Southampton's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.83 goals per game.

Predicted formations: Southampton 4-2-3-1 / Derby 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Southampton wins 2, draws 4, Derby wins 0

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 13:6 7 17
W W L D W
2 8 4 3 1 22:11 11 15
D W W W W
3 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
D D W W D
4 7 4 2 1 15:10 5 14
W W D L W
5 8 4 2 2 10:8 2 14
L D W W D
6 8 3 4 1 10:7 3 13
D D D L W
7 8 4 1 3 13:12 1 13
W W D W W
8 8 4 1 3 11:12 -1 13
W L L W W
9 8 3 3 2 7:10 -3 12
L D D L D
10 8 2 5 1 12:11 1 11
D W L D D
11 8 3 2 3 15:15 0 11
D D L W L
12 8 3 2 3 7:8 -1 11
L W W D D
13 8 4 2 2 19:10 9 10
L W W D D
14 8 2 4 2 9:12 -3 10
W L D D W
15 8 3 1 4 11:15 -4 10
W W L L L
16 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
D W L L D
17 8 3 0 5 16:17 -1 9
L L W W L
18 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L L W L W
19 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D D W L L
20 8 2 2 4 7:10 -3 8
L L W L L
21 8 1 4 3 10:12 -2 7
W L D L L
22
Derby Away
8 1 2 5 7:14 -7 5
D L L L W
23 8 1 1 6 8:15 -7 4
D L L W L
24 8 0 4 4 9:17 -8 4
D L D L D
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One