ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
St. Mary's Stadium
Referee: E. Bell
Southampton
Match Timeline
Bristol City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
S. Bell · Assist: S. Twine
Bristol City
🟨
28'
Shea Charles
Southampton
29'
C. Larin · Assist: R. Manning
Southampton
🔄
57'
K. Matsuki ↔ T. Fellows
Southampton
🔄
57'
C. Archer ↔ L. Scienza
Southampton
🟨
62'
Flynn Downes
Southampton
63'
S. Bell · Assist: T. Horvat
Bristol City
🔄
70'
F. Azaz ↔ C. Jander
Southampton
🔄
71'
J. Bree ↔ R. Stewart
Southampton
🔄
73'
S. Bell ↔ M. Sykes
Bristol City
74'
R. Stewart · Assist: T. Fellows
Southampton
🟨
76'
Cameron Pring
Bristol City
🟨
80'
Cyle Larin
Southampton
🔄
81'
T. Horvat ↔ R. Dickie
Bristol City
🔄
87'
F. Downes ↔ C. Bragg
Southampton
🟨
90+8'
Robert Dickie
Bristol City
🟨
90+1'
Sam Morsy
Bristol City

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 73.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
73.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Southampton Win 73.7%
Draw 0%
Bristol City Win 26.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Southampton1.57
Bristol City1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Southampton Southampton
WWDLW
83 GF / 55 GA
Bristol City Bristol City
WLDWL
59 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
33
BTTS Yes
20
29
Over 2.5
20
5.3
Shots on Goal
4.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Southampton Southampton 47 matches
Bristol City Bristol City 45 matches
Southampton Statistic Bristol City
25 Wins 17
12 Draws 10
10 Losses 18
83 Goals For 59
55 Goals Against 57
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
33 BTTS Yes 20
40 Over 1.5 31
29 Over 2.5 20
14 Over 3.5 12
12 Clean Sheets 13
5 Failed To Score 16
5.3 Shots On Goal 4.11
14 Total Shots 12.42
5.66 Corners 5.02
55.7% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Southampton come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Bristol City. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Southampton Analysis

Southampton approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 75 points after 43 outings. They have recorded 21 wins, 12 draws, and 10 losses, with a 70:50 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on A. Armstrong (11 goals), F. Azaz (11 goals), L. Scienza (7 goals), with creative support from L. Scienza (10 assists), F. Azaz (8 assists), Tom Fellows (5 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 11 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Roerslev Rasmussen, A. McCarthy unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Bristol City Analysis

Bristol City are currently 10 in the standings with 58 points from 43 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 16 wins, 10 draws, and 17 losses, while the 52:51 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on S. Twine (11 goals), A. Mehmeti (10 goals), E. Riis (9 goals), with creative support from A. Mehmeti (7 assists), S. Twine (6 assists), R. McCrorie (6 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with R. Atkinson, L. McNally, J. Williams unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Southampton won 2 times, Bristol City won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:11 from Southampton's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Southampton 4-2-3-1 / Bristol City 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Southampton 2, Bristol City 4
H2H summary: Southampton wins 2, draws 1, Bristol City wins 4
Stats
Southampton Southampton
Bristol City Bristol City
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
7 Corner Kicks 3
14 Fouls 10
5 Offsides 1
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Goal 5
2 Shots off Goal 2
4 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 3
3 Shots outsidebox 5
4 Goalkeeper Saves 2
524 Total passes 451
443 Passes accurate 384
1.97 expected_goals 0.74
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Bristol City
Formation
Southampton
R. Vitek
R. Vitek
R. McCrorie
R. McCrorie
N. Eile
N. Eile
Neto Borges
Neto Borges
C. Pring
C. Pring
J. Knight
J. Knight
S. Morsy
S. Morsy
S. Bell
⚽ 2
S. Bell
T. Horvat
🎯
T. Horvat
S. Twine
🎯
S. Twine
D. Burgzorg
D. Burgzorg
D. Peretz
D. Peretz
J. Bree
J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
T. Harwood-Bellis
N. Wood
N. Wood
R. Manning
🎯
R. Manning
F. Downes
F. Downes
S. Charles
S. Charles
K. Matsuki
K. Matsuki
C. Archer
C. Archer
F. Azaz
F. Azaz
C. Larin
C. Larin
Bristol City 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
R. Vitek
G
2
R. McCrorie
D
38
N. Eile
D
21
Neto Borges
D
3
C. Pring
🟨 76'
D
12
J. Knight
M
40
S. Morsy
🟨 90+1'
M
20
S. Bell
⚽ 5' ⚽ 63' ↓ 73'
M
14
T. Horvat
🎯 63' ↓ 81'
M
10
S. Twine
🎯 5'
M
11
D. Burgzorg
F
Substitutes
32
L. Thomas
G
16
R. Dickie
↑ 81' 🟨 90+8'
D
48
R. Young
F
17
M. Sykes
↑ 73'
M
19
G. Tanner
D
18
E. Riis
F
30
S. Armstrong
F
44
G. Earthy
M
24
S. Naylor
D
Southampton 4-2-3-1 (estimated from previous match)
Starting XI
41
D. Peretz
G
14
J. Bree
↓ 71'
D
6
T. Harwood-Bellis
D
15
N. Wood
D
3
R. Manning
🎯 29'
D
4
F. Downes
↓ 87' 🟨 62'
M
24
S. Charles
🟨 28'
M
27
K. Matsuki
↓ 57'
M
19
C. Archer
↓ 57'
M
10
F. Azaz
↓ 70'
M
9
C. Larin
⚽ 29' 🟨 80'
F
Substitutes
25
G. Long
G
34
Welington
D
5
J. Stephens
11
R. Stewart
⚽ 74' ↑ 71'
F
18
T. Fellows
🎯 74' ↑ 57'
M
23
S. Edozie
M
13
L. Scienza
↑ 57'
M
48
C. Bragg
↑ 87'
M
20
C. Jander
↑ 70'
M
Last matches: Southampton
01.08.26
Fri
Southampton
Preußen Münster
2
1
W
24.07.26
Fri
Southampton
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Southampton
Eastleigh
3
1
W
12.05.26
Cha
Southampton
Middlesbrough
2
1
W
09.05.26
Cha
Southampton
Middlesbrough
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
Southampton
Preston
3
1
W
28.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Ipswich
2
2
D
25.04.26
FA
Southampton
Manchester City
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Swansea
2
1
W
14.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Blackburn
3
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Derby
2
1
W
07.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Wrexham
5
1
W
04.04.26
FA
Southampton
Arsenal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Oxford United
2
0
W
18.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Norwich
1
0
W
14.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Coventry
2
1
W
11.03.26
Cha
Southampton
West Brom
1
1
D
08.03.26
FA
Southampton
Fulham
1
0
W
28.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Sheffield Wednesday
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Southampton
QPR
5
0
W
Last matches: Bristol City
01.08.26
Fri
Bristol City
Exeter City
1
1
D
01.08.26
Fri
Bristol City
Plymouth
0
0
D
29.07.26
Fri
Bristol City
Newcastle
4
1
W
29.07.26
Fri
Bristol City
Forest Green
2
3
L
25.07.26
Fri
Bristol City
Swindon Town
3
1
W
21.07.26
Fri
Bristol City
Newport County
0
0
D
17.07.26
Fri
Bristol City
Stockport County
0
2
L
02.05.26
Cha
Bristol City
Stoke City
2
0
W
25.04.26
Cha
Bristol City
Birmingham
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
Bristol City
Norwich
2
4
L
11.04.26
Cha
Bristol City
QPR
0
0
D
06.04.26
Cha
Bristol City
Sheffield Utd
1
0
W
03.04.26
Cha
Bristol City
Charlton
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Bristol City
West Brom
0
1
L
14.03.26
Cha
Bristol City
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
10.03.26
Cha
Bristol City
Leicester
0
2
L
07.03.26
Cha
Bristol City
Coventry
0
2
L
03.03.26
FA
Bristol City
Port Vale
0
1
L
27.02.26
Cha
Bristol City
Watford
1
2
L
24.02.26
Cha
Bristol City
Blackburn
2
1
W
H2H: Southampton vs Bristol City
21.04.26
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
2
2
D
21.10.25
H2H
Bristol City
Southampton
3
1
L
13.02.24
H2H
Bristol City
Southampton
3
1
L
29.11.23
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
1
0
W
24.09.13
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
2
0
W
30.12.11
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
0
1
L
26.11.11
H2H
Bristol City
Southampton
2
0
L
Last matches: Southampton
12.05.26
Cha
Southampton
Middlesbrough
2
1
W
28.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Ipswich
2
2
D
14.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Blackburn
3
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Southampton
Derby
2
1
W
04.04.26
FA
Southampton
Arsenal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Oxford United
2
0
W
18.03.26
Cha
Southampton
Norwich
1
0
W
24.02.26
Cha
Southampton
QPR
5
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Charlton
1
1
D
14.02.26
FA
Southampton
Leicester
2
1
W
07.02.26
Cha
Southampton
Watford
1
0
W
21.01.26
Cha
Southampton
Sheffield Utd
1
0
W
17.01.26
Cha
Southampton
Hull City
1
2
L
01.01.26
Cha
Southampton
Millwall
0
0
D
20.12.25
Cha
Southampton
Coventry
1
1
D
09.12.25
Cha
Southampton
West Brom
3
2
W
06.12.25
Cha
Southampton
Birmingham
3
1
W
25.11.25
Cha
Southampton
Leicester
3
0
W
08.11.25
Cha
Southampton
Sheffield Wednesday
3
1
W
01.11.25
Cha
Southampton
Preston
0
2
L
H2H at home: Southampton
21.04.26
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
2
2
D
29.11.23
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
1
0
W
24.09.13
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
2
0
W
30.12.11
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
0
1
L
Last matches: Bristol City
01.08.26
Fri
Bristol City
Exeter City
1
1
D
01.08.26
Fri
Bristol City
Plymouth
0
0
D
29.07.26
Fri
Bristol City
Forest Green
2
3
L
25.07.26
Fri
Bristol City
Swindon Town
3
1
W
17.07.26
Fri
Bristol City
Stockport County
0
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Bristol City
Birmingham
1
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Bristol City
QPR
0
0
D
03.04.26
Cha
Bristol City
Charlton
2
1
W
14.03.26
Cha
Bristol City
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
10.03.26
Cha
Bristol City
Leicester
0
2
L
03.03.26
FA
Bristol City
Port Vale
0
1
L
24.02.26
Cha
Bristol City
Blackburn
2
1
W
21.02.26
Cha
Bristol City
Swansea
0
1
L
07.02.26
Cha
Bristol City
Hull City
3
2
W
20.01.26
Cha
Bristol City
Ipswich
0
2
L
17.01.26
Cha
Bristol City
Oxford United
0
0
D
29.12.25
Cha
Bristol City
Millwall
1
2
L
26.12.25
Cha
Bristol City
West Brom
2
1
W
13.12.25
Cha
Bristol City
Coventry
0
1
L
29.11.25
Cha
Bristol City
Portsmouth
1
0
W
H2H away: Bristol City
21.04.26
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
2
2
D
29.11.23
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
1
0
L
24.09.13
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
2
0
L
30.12.11
H2H
Southampton
Bristol City
0
1
W

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Southampton 2 missing
-
M. Roerslev Rasmussen
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
A. McCarthy
Missing Fixture Wrist Injury
OUT
Bristol City 4 missing
-
R. Atkinson
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
L. McNally
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
J. Williams
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
M. Bird
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT