IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
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Tolka Park

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.1%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Shelbourne Win 66.1%
Draw 6.1%
St Patrick's Athl. Win 27.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shelbourne1.37
St Patrick's Athl.1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WWDLW
53 GF / 45 GA
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WLDWL
47 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.66
Average Goals Scored
1.62
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
24
BTTS Yes
13
22
Over 2.5
11
3.59
Shots on Goal
5.12

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shelbourne Shelbourne 32 matches
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 29 matches
Shelbourne Statistic St Patrick's Athl.
12 Wins 13
12 Draws 9
8 Losses 7
53 Goals For 47
45 Goals Against 27
1.66 Avg Goals Scored 1.62
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
24 BTTS Yes 13
26 Over 1.5 22
22 Over 2.5 11
11 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 9
3.59 Shots On Goal 5.12
12.04 Total Shots 15.65
4.74 Corners 5.38
46.7% Ball Possession 52.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between St Patrick's Athl.'s more proactive style and Shelbourne's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors St Patrick's Athl.. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shelbourne expected to line up in 4-3-3 and St Patrick's Athl. in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward St Patrick's Athl. having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Shelbourne Analysis

Shelbourne arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 34 points after 24 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 35:35 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Harry Wood (3 goals), D. Kelly (3 goals), John Martin (2 goals), with creative support from Harry Wood (5 assists), John Martin (1 assists), A. Coote (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

Placed 2 with 43 points from 25 outings, St Patrick's Athl. continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, while the 40:21 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Kian Leavy (4 goals), Ryan Edmondson (4 goals), Zac Elbouzedi (3 goals), with creative support from Zac Elbouzedi (3 assists), Luke Turner (3 assists), Joe Redmond (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Shelbourne won 7 times, St Patrick's Athl. won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:15 from Shelbourne's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94%)
Predicted formations: Shelbourne 4-3-3 / St Patrick's Athl. 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Shelbourne wins 7, draws 2, St Patrick's Athl. wins 6
Last matches: Shelbourne
02.08.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
0
1
L
30.07.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
23.07.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Kalju Nomme
5
2
W
07.07.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Celtic
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
27.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
22.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
2
D
12.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
25.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
3
4
L
17.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
03.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
L
Last matches: St Patrick's Athl.
02.08.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
1
1
D
24.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
1
1
D
14.07.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Doncaster
2
4
L
10.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
3
0
W
26.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
0
2
L
19.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
2
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
22.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
L
08.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
4
1
W
04.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
2
2
D
24.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
3
1
W
17.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
3
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
06.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
4
1
W
20.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
0
W
H2H: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.
15.05.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
W
06.03.26
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
L
01.11.25
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
17.08.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
2
0
L
16.06.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
W
09.05.25
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
1
W
04.04.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
0
D
30.09.24
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
L
20.05.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
2
W
26.04.24
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
15.03.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
2
W
01.09.23
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
1
W
23.06.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
0
L
19.05.23
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
0
1
L
24.02.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
1
0
L
Last matches: Shelbourne
23.07.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Kalju Nomme
5
2
W
07.07.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Celtic
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
22.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
3
L
12.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
22.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
24.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
3
4
L
17.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
L
16.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
0
D
09.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
L
20.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
31.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Longford Town
4
1
W
20.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
11.12.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Crystal Palace
0
3
L
06.11.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Drita
0
1
L
02.10.25
UEF
Shelbourne
BK Hacken
0
0
D
H2H at home: Shelbourne
06.03.26
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
L
01.11.25
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
09.05.25
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
1
W
30.09.24
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
L
26.04.24
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
01.09.23
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
1
W
19.05.23
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
0
1
L
Last matches: St Patrick's Athl.
14.07.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Doncaster
2
4
L
10.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
26.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
0
2
L
29.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
22.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
2
2
D
17.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
3
1
W
06.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
0
2
L
20.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
3
2
W
20.02.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
08.02.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
0
0
D
16.01.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Bray Wanderers
3
0
W
14.08.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Beşiktaş
2
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Kalju Nomme
2
2
D
17.07.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Hegelmann Litauen
2
0
W
H2H away: St Patrick's Athl.
06.03.26
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
W
01.11.25
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
09.05.25
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
1
L
30.09.24
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
W
26.04.24
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
L
01.09.23
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
1
L
19.05.23
H2H
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
0
1
W

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 6 5 40:22 18 51
D W W D W
2 26 12 8 6 41:22 19 44
D D D W L
3 26 12 8 6 41:28 13 44
D W W W L
4 26 9 10 7 40:38 2 37
D D L L L
5 25 8 10 7 35:36 -1 34
L W D L D
6 26 6 12 8 33:32 1 30
D L W D L
7 25 7 8 10 33:40 -7 29
D D W L L
8 26 6 9 11 31:43 -12 27
D D W L L
9 26 5 10 11 34:47 -13 25
W D D W W
10 26 5 7 14 23:43 -20 22
D D L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation