IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
14.09.2026 18:45
Tolka Park
Shelbourne
Match Timeline
Drogheda United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
10'
Sean Boyd ↔ Rodrigo Costa Freitas
Shelbourne
22'
Daniel Kelly · Assist: Sean Moore
Shelbourne
40'
Warren Davis · Assist: ethan brien o
Drogheda United
🟨
44'
Kerr Mcinroy
Shelbourne
57'
Leo Burney · Assist: Brandon Kavanagh
Drogheda United
🔄
61'
Evan Caffrey ↔ Alistair Coote
Shelbourne
🔄
61'
Rodrigo Costa Freitas ↔ Ademipo Odubeko
Shelbourne
🔄
68'
Brandon Kavanagh ↔ Shane Farrell
Drogheda United
🔄
68'
Thomas Oluwa ↔ Mark Doyle
Drogheda United
🟨
68'
Alfie Bates
Drogheda United
🔄
69'
Sean Moore ↔ will jarvis
Shelbourne
🔄
79'
Warren Davis ↔ Ryan Markey
Drogheda United
🟨
80'
Alistair Coote
Shelbourne
🟨
83'
will jarvis
Shelbourne
🔄
89'
Alfie Bates ↔ Ryan Brennan
Drogheda United

Shelbourne vs Drogheda United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.93
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.96
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.9%
1.93
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.96
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.2%
1.19
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Shelbourne Win 65.9%
Draw 5.5%
Drogheda United Win 28.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shelbourne1.54
Drogheda United1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WWDLW
58 GF / 54 GA
Drogheda United Drogheda United
WLDWL
40 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
28
BTTS Yes
20
25
Over 2.5
16
3.58
Shots on Goal
3.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shelbourne Shelbourne 38 matches
Drogheda United Drogheda United 33 matches
Shelbourne Statistic Drogheda United
12 Wins 8
15 Draws 12
11 Losses 13
58 Goals For 40
54 Goals Against 51
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
28 BTTS Yes 20
30 Over 1.5 26
25 Over 2.5 16
13 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 8
3.58 Shots On Goal 3.3
11.94 Total Shots 10.2
4.58 Corners 4.07
46.5% Ball Possession 38.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Drogheda United. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shelbourne expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Drogheda United in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Drogheda United having the stronger overall control.

Shelbourne Analysis

Shelbourne come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 36 points from 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 12 draws, and 8 losses, while the 37:39 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Harry Wood (3 goals), D. Kelly (3 goals), John Martin (2 goals), with creative support from Harry Wood (5 assists), John Martin (1 assists), A. Coote (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Drogheda United Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Drogheda United have collected 28 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 10 draws, and 13 losses, while the 33:48 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Mark Doyle (4 goals), Brandon Kavanagh (2 goals), Thomas Oluwa (2 goals), with creative support from Brandon Kavanagh (3 assists), Thomas Oluwa (1 assists), Edwin Agbaje (1 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Shelbourne won 5 times, Drogheda United won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:22 from Shelbourne's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Shelbourne 4-2-3-1 / Drogheda United 3-5-2
H2H summary: Shelbourne wins 5, draws 7, Drogheda United wins 3

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 31 9 12 10 41:44 -3 39
W L L D D
7 31 9 10 12 41:47 -6 37
L W L D W
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation