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CHINA › SUPER LEAGUE
17.10.2026 12:00
Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.1%
Odds 1.74
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.33
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.30
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.1%
1.74 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.33 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.30 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.17 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Shandong Luneng Win 76.1%
Draw 5.9%
Hangzhou Greentown Win 18.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shandong Luneng1.76
Hangzhou Greentown1.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shandong Luneng Shandong Luneng
WWDLW
47 GF / 44 GA
Hangzhou Greentown Hangzhou Greentown
WLDWL
50 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.74
Average Goals Scored
1.72
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.79
20
BTTS Yes
20
18
Over 2.5
20
4.74
Shots on Goal
5.26

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shandong Luneng Shandong Luneng 27 matches
Hangzhou Greentown Hangzhou Greentown 29 matches
Shandong Luneng Statistic Hangzhou Greentown
13 Wins 10
5 Draws 7
9 Losses 12
47 Goals For 50
44 Goals Against 52
1.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.72
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.79
20 BTTS Yes 20
24 Over 1.5 27
18 Over 2.5 20
11 Over 3.5 15
3 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 6
4.74 Shots On Goal 5.26
13.89 Total Shots 13.81
4.3 Corners 5.37
49.9% Ball Possession 51.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Shandong Luneng's more proactive style and Hangzhou Greentown's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Hangzhou Greentown. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shandong Luneng expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Hangzhou Greentown in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Hangzhou Greentown having the stronger overall control.

Shandong Luneng Analysis

From their first 26 matches, Shandong Luneng have collected 37 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, while the 46:43 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Cryzan (14 goals), Xie Wenneng (4 goals), Zeca (4 goals), with creative support from Cryzan (6 assists), V. Qazaishvili (6 assists), Li Yuanyi (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Hangzhou Greentown Analysis

Hangzhou Greentown are currently 10 in the standings with 31 points from 27 matches. The record of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 47:47 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Alexandru Mitriță (8 goals), Marko Tolić (7 goals), Wang Yudong (6 goals), with creative support from Alexandru Mitriță (9 assists), Wang Yudong (4 assists), Cheng Jin (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Shandong Luneng won 8 times, Hangzhou Greentown won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:21 from Shandong Luneng's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Shandong Luneng 3-4-3 / Hangzhou Greentown 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Shandong Luneng wins 8, draws 2, Hangzhou Greentown wins 4

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 15 7 5 51:31 20 52
L D W L W
2 27 13 4 10 42:42 0 43
W W D W D
3 27 12 10 5 52:33 19 41
W D D D W
4 27 13 5 9 47:44 3 38
D D W L W
5 27 11 5 11 55:58 -3 38
L W L D W
6 27 8 14 5 31:36 -5 38
L D D W D
7 27 11 8 8 44:35 9 36
W D W W D
8 27 13 5 9 59:47 12 34
W W L W L
9 27 7 11 9 28:33 -5 32
D L D L D
10 28 11 8 9 38:32 6 31
W W W W D
11 27 10 6 11 47:47 0 31
L W L W D
12 27 8 5 14 36:47 -11 29
D D L D W
13 28 8 10 10 35:38 -3 28
L D D D D
14 27 7 5 15 35:48 -13 26
D L L L D
15 27 5 12 10 40:47 -7 22
D L D D W
16 27 6 3 18 34:56 -22 14
L L L L L
AFC Champions League Elite League Stage
AFC Champions League 2 Group Stage
Relegation