SPAIN LA LIGA
17.05.2026 17:00
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Referee: J. Sanchez
Sevilla
Match Timeline
Real Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
Vinicius Junior
Real Madrid
🟨
48'
Nemanja Gudelj
Sevilla
🔄
53'
N. Maupay ↔ A. Sanchez
Sevilla
🔄
54'
R. Vargas ↔ C. Ejuke
Sevilla
🔄
54'
N. Gudelj ↔ L. Agoume
Sevilla
🔄
70'
J. A. Carmona ↔ J. Sanchez
Sevilla
🔄
70'
A. Tchouameni ↔ E. Camavinga
Real Madrid
🔄
70'
T. Pitarch ↔ F. Mastantuono
Real Madrid
🔄
77'
B. Diaz ↔ T. Alexander-Arnold
Real Madrid
🔄
77'
Vinicius Junior ↔ G. Garcia
Real Madrid
🔄
78'
Oso ↔ I. Romero
Sevilla
🟨
80'
Alexis Sánchez
Sevilla
🟨
84'
Juanlu Sánchez
Sevilla
🔄
87'
J. Bellingham ↔ A. Leiva
Real Madrid
🟨
90+4'
Lucien Agoumé
Sevilla

Sevilla vs Real Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sevilla Win 42.3%
Draw 3.7%
Real Madrid Win 54%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sevilla1.25
Real Madrid1.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sevilla Sevilla
WWDLW
52 GF / 61 GA
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WLDWL
110 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
2.12
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
24
BTTS Yes
31
23
Over 2.5
33
3.54
Shots on Goal
6.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sevilla Sevilla 39 matches
Real Madrid Real Madrid 52 matches
Sevilla Statistic Real Madrid
14 Wins 35
7 Draws 5
18 Losses 12
52 Goals For 110
61 Goals Against 58
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 2.12
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
24 BTTS Yes 31
32 Over 1.5 45
23 Over 2.5 33
11 Over 3.5 16
6 Clean Sheets 17
9 Failed To Score 5
3.54 Shots On Goal 6.83
11.21 Total Shots 17.85
4.85 Corners 6.44
50.3% Ball Possession 58%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Real Madrid's more proactive style and Sevilla's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Real Madrid. Real Madrid carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 77 points while Sevilla sit 13 on 40, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Sevilla Analysis

From their first 35 matches, Sevilla have collected 40 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. The record of 11 wins, 7 draws, and 17 defeats, together with a 43:56 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Adams (9 goals), D. Sow (5 goals), A. Sanchez (4 goals), with creative support from R. Vargas (5 assists), A. Adams (3 assists), D. Sow (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Real Madrid Analysis

Placed 2 with 77 points from 35 outings, Real Madrid continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 24 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 70:33 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Mbappe (24 goals), Vinícius Júnior (15 goals), F. Valverde (5 goals), with creative support from A. Guler (9 assists), F. Valverde (8 assists), Vinícius Júnior (5 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sevilla won 0 times, Real Madrid won 13 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:29 from Sevilla's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: Sevilla 4-4-2 / Real Madrid 4-4-2
Missing players: Sevilla 2, Real Madrid 7
H2H summary: Sevilla wins 0, draws 2, Real Madrid wins 13

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2