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UGANDA › PREMIER LEAGUE
22.10.2026 13:00
Mutesa II Stadium

SC Villa vs Mbarara City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.1%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.1%
- ▥
BTTS No
60.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
SC Villa Win 77.1%
Draw 4.7%
Mbarara City Win 18.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Villa1.64
Mbarara City0.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
SC Villa SC Villa
WWDLW
14 GF / 3 GA
Mbarara City Mbarara City
WLDWL
2 GF / 3 GA
Key Stats
2.33
Average Goals Scored
0.4
0.5
Average Goals Conceded
0.6
3
BTTS Yes
1
2
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SC Villa SC Villa 6 matches
Mbarara City Mbarara City 5 matches
SC Villa Statistic Mbarara City
4 Wins 1
2 Draws 2
0 Losses 2
14 Goals For 2
3 Goals Against 3
2.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.4
0.5 Avg Goals Conceded 0.6
3 BTTS Yes 1
5 Over 1.5 1
2 Over 2.5 1
1 Over 3.5 0
3 Clean Sheets 2
0 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around SC Villa's more proactive style and Mbarara City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Mbarara City having the stronger overall control. SC Villa arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 14 points compared to Mbarara City in 14 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. SC Villa come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mbarara City.

SC Villa Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 14 points from 6 games, SC Villa bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a 14:3 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Mbarara City Analysis

Mbarara City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 5 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, and the 2:3 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)

Standings

Regular Season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 13:3 10 16
W D W W W
2 6 4 2 0 14:3 11 14
W D W W W
3 6 4 2 0 11:2 9 14
W D W D W
4 6 3 2 1 6:2 4 11
D W D L W
5 5 3 1 1 13:2 11 10
W D W W L
6 6 3 1 2 4:4 0 10
W W W D L
7 6 3 0 3 6:9 -3 9
L L L W W
8 4 2 2 0 5:3 2 8
W W D D
9 6 2 2 2 4:5 -1 8
L W W D L
10 6 2 1 3 9:7 2 7
D W L L W
11 6 2 1 3 4:9 -5 7
D L L W L
12 6 2 1 3 4:10 -6 7
L L W D L
13 5 1 2 2 2:3 -1 5
W L D D L
14 6 1 2 3 4:6 -2 5
L D D L W
15 5 1 1 3 3:7 -4 4
D L L L W
16 6 1 0 5 3:13 -10 3
L W L L L
17 6 0 2 4 3:13 -10 2
L L D L L
18 5 0 1 4 1:8 -7 1
L L L D L