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ITALY › SERIE A
11.10.2026 16:00
Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Referee: Francesco Fourneau
Sassuolo
Match Timeline
AC Milan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
20'
Matteo Gabbia ↔ Koni De Winter
AC Milan
🔄
26'
Fedde Leysen ↔ Cas Odenthal
Sassuolo
🟨
41'
Pervis Estupinan
AC Milan
🟨
45+3'
Koni De Winter
AC Milan
🔄
45'
Pervis Estupinan ↔ Luka Modrić
AC Milan
🔄
60'
Sebastiano Esposito ↔ Kieron Bowie
Sassuolo
🔄
60'
Vasilije Adzic ↔ Kristian Thorstvedt
Sassuolo
⚽
63'
Adrien Rabiot · Assist: Luka Modrić
AC Milan
⚽
68'
Cas Odenthal
Sassuolo
🔄
78'
Yunus Musah ↔ Ardon Jashari
AC Milan
🔄
78'
Christian Pulisic ↔ Alphadjo Cissè
AC Milan
🔄
79'
Ignace Van der Brempt ↔ Simone Cinquegrano
Sassuolo
🔄
79'
Nemanja Matić ↔ Luca Lipani
Sassuolo
🔄
85'
Samuel Chukwueze ↔ Omari Hutchinson
AC Milan
🟨
87'
Gonçalo Ramos
AC Milan
🟨
90+1'
Strahinja Pavlovic
AC Milan
🟨
90+4'
Kristian Thorstvedt
Sassuolo

Sassuolo vs AC Milan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 42.1%
Odds 4.23
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
42.1%
4.23 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.69 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89%
1.49 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
15.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sassuolo Win 42.1%
Draw 16.2%
AC Milan Win 41.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sassuolo1.48
AC Milan1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sassuolo Sassuolo
WWDLW
20 GF / 20 GA
AC Milan AC Milan
WLDWL
17 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.7
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
9
BTTS Yes
6
9
Over 2.5
6
6.57
Shots on Goal
4.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sassuolo Sassuolo 13 matches
AC Milan AC Milan 10 matches
Sassuolo Statistic AC Milan
4 Wins 4
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 2
20 Goals For 17
20 Goals Against 14
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.7
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
9 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 10
9 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 2
6.57 Shots On Goal 4.17
15.86 Total Shots 13.5
4.71 Corners 4
48.7% Ball Possession 60.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around AC Milan's more proactive style and Sassuolo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sassuolo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and AC Milan in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AC Milan having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AC Milan. AC Milan carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 11 points while Sassuolo sit 10 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Sassuolo Analysis

So far, Sassuolo have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 7 points from 5 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 9:9 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Vasilije Adžić (3 goals), Josh Doig (1 goals), Kieron Bowie (1 goals), with creative support from Vasilije Adžić (1 assists), Armand Laurienté (1 assists), Nemanja Matić (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

AC Milan Analysis

AC Milan approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 11 points after 5 outings. The return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 10:4, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Diego Moreira (3 goals), Adrien Rabiot (2 goals), Alphadjo Cissè (2 goals), with creative support from Adrien Rabiot (2 assists), Samuel Chukwueze (2 assists), Gonçalo Ramos (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sassuolo won 4 times, AC Milan won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:28 from Sassuolo's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.8%)
Predicted formations: Sassuolo 4-3-3 / AC Milan 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Sassuolo 8, AC Milan 1
H2H summary: Sassuolo wins 4, draws 4, AC Milan wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 18:8 10 16
W D W W W
2 6 4 2 0 14:3 11 14
D D W W W
3 5 4 1 0 8:3 5 13
W D W W W
4 5 4 0 1 5:2 3 12
W W W L W
5 5 3 2 0 10:4 6 11
W D D W W
6 6 3 2 1 9:6 3 11
D L W W W
7 6 3 1 2 10:6 4 10
W D W L L
8 5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
W L D W W
9 6 3 1 2 9:7 2 10
L W D W W
10 5 2 1 2 9:9 0 7
L W D W L
11 5 2 0 3 5:7 -2 6
L L L W W
12 5 2 0 3 5:10 -5 6
L W L L W
13 5 1 1 3 8:11 -3 4
L L L W D
14 5 1 1 3 5:8 -3 4
D L W L L
15 5 1 1 3 8:12 -4 4
W L D L L
16 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
W L D L L
17 6 1 1 4 4:10 -6 4
L W L D L
18 6 1 1 4 7:14 -7 4
L D W L L
19 5 0 2 3 3:6 -3 2
D L D L L
20 5 0 0 5 4:13 -9 0
L L L L L
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