BRAZIL SERIE A
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Estadio Do MorumBIS

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.6%
Odds 2.00
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 2.15
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.6%
2.00
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.95
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
2.15
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.17
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Sao Paulo Win 70.6%
Draw 10.8%
Santos Win 18.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Paulo1.38
Santos1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WWDLW
25 GF / 23 GA
Santos Santos
WLDWL
32 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
12
BTTS Yes
15
8
Over 2.5
14
3.9
Shots on Goal
3.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 20 matches
Santos Santos 21 matches
Sao Paulo Statistic Santos
7 Wins 6
5 Draws 7
8 Losses 8
25 Goals For 32
23 Goals Against 33
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
12 BTTS Yes 15
15 Over 1.5 19
8 Over 2.5 14
3 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 2
3.9 Shots On Goal 3.8
11.75 Total Shots 12.75
6.35 Corners 5.35
53.6% Ball Possession 49.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Sao Paulo's more proactive style and Santos's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Santos. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Sao Paulo sit 8 with 25 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats with a 23:20 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jonathan Calleri (5 goals), Luciano (5 goals), Ferreirinha (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Jonathan Calleri (1 assists), Luciano (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Santos Analysis

Santos sit 15 with 21 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 27:31 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals), Neymar (4 goals), Álvaro Barreal (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Miguelito (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Sao Paulo won 6 times, Santos won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:14 from Sao Paulo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.2%)
Predicted formations: Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1 / Santos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sao Paulo wins 6, draws 3, Santos wins 5
Last matches: Sao Paulo
26.07.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
29.01.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
2
1
W
Last matches: Santos
25.07.26
Ser
Santos
Chapecoense-sc
2
2
D
16.07.26
Ser
Santos
Botafogo
1
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Santos
União São João
3
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Santos
Vitoria
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Santos
Gremio
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Santos
Coritiba
0
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Santos
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santos
Palmeiras
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Santos
Bahia
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Santos
Fluminense
2
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Santos
Flamengo
1
3
L
02.04.26
Ser
Santos
Remo
2
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Santos
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
19.03.26
Ser
Santos
Internacional
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Santos
Corinthians
1
1
D
11.03.26
Ser
Santos
Mirassol
2
2
D
26.02.26
Ser
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
04.02.26
Ser
Santos
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
H2H: Sao Paulo vs Santos
29.07.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
0
0
D
04.02.26
H2H
Santos
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
31.01.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
2
0
W
21.09.25
H2H
Santos
Sao Paulo
1
0
L
20.04.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
2
1
W
01.02.25
H2H
Santos
Sao Paulo
3
1
L
14.02.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
0
1
L
12.11.23
H2H
Santos
Sao Paulo
0
0
D
16.07.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
4
1
W
12.02.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
3
1
W
21.08.22
H2H
Santos
Sao Paulo
1
0
L
02.05.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
2
1
W
20.02.22
H2H
Santos
Sao Paulo
0
3
W
07.10.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
20.06.21
H2H
Santos
Sao Paulo
2
0
L
Last matches: Sao Paulo
23.07.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
29.01.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
2
1
W
H2H at home: Sao Paulo
29.07.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
0
0
D
31.01.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
2
0
W
20.04.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
2
1
W
14.02.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
0
1
L
16.07.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
4
1
W
12.02.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
3
1
W
02.05.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
2
1
W
07.10.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
Last matches: Santos
16.07.26
Ser
Santos
Botafogo
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Santos
Gremio
2
3
L
02.05.26
Ser
Santos
Palmeiras
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Santos
Bahia
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Santos
Flamengo
1
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Santos
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
11.03.26
Ser
Santos
Mirassol
2
2
D
12.02.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
28.01.26
Ser
Santos
Chapecoense-sc
2
4
L
H2H away: Santos
29.07.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
0
0
D
31.01.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
2
0
L
20.04.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
2
1
L
14.02.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
0
1
W
16.07.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
4
1
L
12.02.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
3
1
L
02.05.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
2
1
L
07.10.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 3.30
Home 2.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.10
Home 2.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.30
Home 2.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.15
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 1.5 3.20
Under 2.5 1.67
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.69
Draw 3.37
Home 2.11
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.10
Home 2.62
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 2.25
Home 2.45
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 0.75 1.04
Over 1.0 1.09
Over 1.25 1.23
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 1.75 1.45
Over 2.0 1.60
Over 2.25 1.91
Over 2.5 2.18
Over 2.75 2.38
Over 3.0 3.10
Over 3.25 3.37
Over 3.5 3.85
Over 3.75 4.56
Over 4.0 5.70
Over 4.25 6.75
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 6.70
Under 0.75 7.09
Under 1.0 5.60
Under 1.25 3.69
Under 1.5 2.80
Under 1.75 2.56
Under 2.0 2.20
Under 2.25 1.93
Under 2.5 1.71
Under 2.75 1.49
Under 3.0 1.32
Under 3.25 1.26
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 3.75 1.15
Under 4.0 1.09
Under 4.25 1.05
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 3.35
Home 1.97
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.30
Draw 2.08
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 2.45
Home 2.35
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 1.75 1.47
Over 2.0 1.61
Over 2.25 1.89
Over 2.5 2.16
Over 2.75 2.50
Over 3.0 3.20
Over 3.25 3.55
Over 3.5 3.95
Over 4.5 8.50
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.05
Under 1.75 2.65
Under 2.0 2.28
Under 2.25 1.90
Under 2.5 1.68
Under 2.75 1.52
Under 3.0 1.35
Under 3.25 1.29
Under 3.5 1.23
Under 4.5 1.06

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 5 2 38:16 22 47
W L W W W
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 21 11 4 6 28:19 9 37
D W W W W
4 21 9 7 5 30:25 5 34
D D D D L
5 21 8 8 5 29:25 4 32
D D D W W
6 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
7 21 8 6 7 27:30 -3 30
W L W D W
8 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
9 21 7 8 6 22:20 2 29
D D W W W
10 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
W D W L W
11 21 7 6 8 25:28 -3 27
L D L L W
12 20 7 5 8 25:23 2 26
D L L D L
13 21 7 5 9 22:31 -9 26
L L D W L
14 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
15 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
16 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
17 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
D L L W D
18 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
19 21 5 6 10 24:34 -10 21
L W L W L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
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