BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques
Referee: A. Gomes Stefano
Sao Paulo
Match Timeline
Atletico Paranaense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Arthur Dias
Atletico Paranaense
19'
Artur
Sao Paulo
🔄
23'
R. Toloi ↔ Luis Osorio
Sao Paulo
🔄
46'
Arthur Dias ↔ C. Teran
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
46'
Joao Cruz ↔ Claudinho
Atletico Paranaense
46'
Leozinho
Atletico Paranaense
51'
Leozinho · Assist: L. Esquivel
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
64'
Pablo Maia ↔ Ferreira
Sao Paulo
🔄
64'
Jonathan Calleri ↔ Andre Silva
Sao Paulo
🔄
74'
D. Bobadilla ↔ Danielzinho
Sao Paulo
🔄
75'
Lucas Ramon ↔ Victor Sa
Sao Paulo
🔄
76'
Leozinho ↔ Isaac
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
83'
Gilberto ↔ Gilberto Junior
Atletico Paranaense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.3%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sao Paulo Win 60.3%
Draw 6.6%
Atletico Paranaense Win 33.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Paulo1.19
Atletico Paranaense1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WWDLW
23 GF / 20 GA
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WLDWL
25 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
10
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
9
4.11
Shots on Goal
4.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 18 matches
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 20 matches
Sao Paulo Statistic Atletico Paranaense
7 Wins 9
4 Draws 3
7 Losses 8
23 Goals For 25
20 Goals Against 21
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
10 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 6
4.11 Shots On Goal 4.83
11.83 Total Shots 12.22
6.56 Corners 5.17
53.1% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico Paranaense. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sao Paulo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Paranaense having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Sao Paulo sit 8 with 25 points after 18 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 23:20 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through Jonathan Calleri (6 goals), Luciano (6 goals), Ferreira (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), D. Bobadilla (2 assists), Marcos Antonio (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Placed 4 with 30 points from 18 outings, Atletico Paranaense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 24:18 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Viveros (11 goals), S. Mendoza (5 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from G. Benavidez (5 assists), L. Esquivel (3 assists), Joao Cruz (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sao Paulo won 8 times, Atletico Paranaense won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:12 from Sao Paulo's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.4%)
Predicted formations: Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Sao Paulo 2, Atletico Paranaense 4
H2H summary: Sao Paulo wins 8, draws 3, Atletico Paranaense wins 4
Stats
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
2
7 Corner Kicks 3
7 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 0
70% Ball Possession 30%
18 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Goal 3
7 Shots off Goal 6
8 Blocked Shots 2
6 Shots insidebox 8
12 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
629 Total passes 263
570 Passes accurate 211
0.94 expected_goals 1.79
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Sao Paulo
Formation
Atletico Paranaense
Rafael
Rafael
Lucas Ramon
Lucas Ramon
Robert Arboleda
Robert Arboleda
R. Toloi
R. Toloi
Wendell
Wendell
D. Bobadilla
D. Bobadilla
Pablo Maia
Pablo Maia
Marcos Antonio
Marcos Antonio
Artur
Artur
Jonathan Calleri
Jonathan Calleri
Luciano
Luciano
Santos
Santos
Arthur Dias
Arthur Dias
F. Aguirre
F. Aguirre
L. Esquivel
🎯
L. Esquivel
Gilberto
Gilberto
Jadson
Jadson
Luiz Gustavo
Luiz Gustavo
S. Mendoza
S. Mendoza
Leozinho
⚽ 2
Leozinho
Joao Cruz
Joao Cruz
K. Viveros
K. Viveros
Sao Paulo 4-3-3
Starting XI
23
Rafael
G
19
Lucas Ramon
↓ 75'
5
Robert Arboleda
D
2
R. Toloi
↓ 23'
D
18
Wendell
D
16
D. Bobadilla
↓ 74'
M
29
Pablo Maia
↓ 64'
M
8
Marcos Antonio
M
37
Artur
⚽ 19'
F
9
Jonathan Calleri
↓ 64'
F
10
Luciano
F
Substitutes
31
Carlos Coronel
G
80
Cauly
M
27
Victor Sa
↑ 75'
F
94
Danielzinho
↑ 74'
M
11
Ferreira
↑ 64'
F
17
Andre Silva
↑ 64'
F
53
Isac
D
54
Luis Osorio
↑ 23'
D
34
P. dos Santos
F
43
G. Santana
M
56
N. Bosshardt
D
48
Djhordney
M
Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
23
Santos
G
4
Arthur Dias
↓ 46' 🟨 18'
D
33
F. Aguirre
D
37
L. Esquivel
🎯 51'
D
12
Gilberto
↓ 83'
M
16
Jadson
M
14
Luiz Gustavo
M
7
S. Mendoza
M
21
Leozinho
⚽ 46' ⚽ 51' ↓ 76'
F
8
Joao Cruz
↓ 46'
9
K. Viveros
F
Substitutes
42
Mateus Soares
27
J. Portilla
M
6
Leo Derik
11
Isaac
↑ 76'
3
Leo
D
22
C. Teran
↑ 46'
D
70
Renan Peixoto
F
2
Gilberto Junior
↑ 83'
19
J. Rivaldo
F
53
Dudu Kogitzki
M
26
Claudinho
↑ 46'
D
63
Diogo Riquelme
M
Last matches: Sao Paulo
16.08.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
1
D
08.08.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
1
2
L
26.07.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
15.08.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
0
W
30.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
0
D
25.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
2
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
09.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
3
L
H2H: Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense
23.07.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
06.08.25
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
1
0
L
31.07.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
10.11.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
04.07.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
1
2
W
29.10.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
21.06.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
31.07.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
1
0
L
10.04.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
4
0
W
25.11.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
07.08.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
1
2
W
17.01.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
27.08.20
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
10.11.19
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
21.08.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
0
1
W
Last matches: Sao Paulo
16.08.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
29.01.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
2
1
W
H2H at home: Sao Paulo
23.07.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
31.07.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
10.11.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
21.06.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
10.04.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
4
0
W
25.11.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
27.08.20
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
10.11.19
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
09.08.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Santos
2
0
W
30.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
0
D
11.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
09.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
15.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
3
L
25.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
1
0
W
H2H away: Atletico Paranaense
23.07.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
W
31.07.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
L
10.11.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
L
21.06.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
L
10.04.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
4
0
L
25.11.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
27.08.20
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
L
10.11.19
H2H
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
W

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 22 13 6 3 44:19 25 45
W W D D W
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 23 10 8 5 34:28 6 38
W D D D D
5 23 10 6 7 32:32 0 36
W W W L W
6 23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
8 22 9 5 8 30:27 3 32
W D W D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 23 5 9 9 24:28 -4 24
D D D L L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 23 5 8 10 27:37 -10 23
D D L W L
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Sao Paulo 2 missing
-
Sabino
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Lucas Moura
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
Atletico Paranaense 4 missing
-
Mycael
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
G. Benavidez
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Felipinho
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
B. Zapelli
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT