BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
São Luiz
Match Timeline
Guarany de Bagé
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
56'
Thiago Andre
São Luiz
80'
Vidmar
São Luiz

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 37.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 51.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
37.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
51.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
São Luiz Win 30.2%
Draw 37.7%
Guarany de Bagé Win 32.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
São Luiz1.12
Guarany de Bagé0.71
Recent Form (Last 5)
São Luiz São Luiz
WWDLW
6 GF / 9 GA
Guarany de Bagé Guarany de Bagé
WLDWL
2 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
0.33
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
1
BTTS Yes
1
1
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

São Luiz São Luiz 7 matches
Guarany de Bagé Guarany de Bagé 6 matches
São Luiz Statistic Guarany de Bagé
2 Wins 1
2 Draws 1
3 Losses 4
6 Goals For 2
9 Goals Against 9
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 0.33
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
1 BTTS Yes 1
3 Over 1.5 3
1 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. São Luiz arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 8 points compared to Guarany de Bagé in 6 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Guarany de Bagé arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Guarany de Bagé having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Guarany de Bagé. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

São Luiz Analysis

São Luiz come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 8 points from 6 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 6:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Brandao (2 goals), Valber Junior (2 goals), Bruno Cardoso (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Guarany de Bagé Analysis

Guarany de Bagé approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 4 points from 6 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 2:9, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, São Luiz won 5 times, Guarany de Bagé won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:6 from São Luiz's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.78 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (69.8%)
H2H summary: São Luiz wins 5, draws 1, Guarany de Bagé wins 3
Last matches: São Luiz
20.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Blumenau
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
3
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cascavel
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Santa Catarina
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cianorte
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cianorte
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Santa Catarina
4
4
D
11.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cascavel
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
0
2
L
27.03.26
Fri
São Luiz
Ypiranga-RS
0
2
L
27.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Azuriz
0
0
D
19.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Barra
0
2
L
13.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
2
L
06.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
30.06.25
Ser
São Luiz
Sao Jose
1
2
L
14.06.25
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
1
2
L
07.06.25
Ser
São Luiz
Marcílio Dias
3
0
W
02.06.25
Ser
São Luiz
Marcílio Dias
0
3
L
26.05.25
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
0
1
L
Last matches: Guarany de Bagé
07.06.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cianorte
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cascavel
0
4
L
10.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Santa Catarina
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Santa Catarina
0
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cascavel
0
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cianorte
1
3
L
27.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
2
1
W
20.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
13.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Sao Jose
1
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
21.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Barra
0
3
L
15.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Azuriz
0
1
L
01.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Barra
0
2
L
25.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Azuriz
0
0
D
18.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
11.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Sao Jose
1
0
W
H2H: São Luiz vs Guarany de Bagé
16.05.26
H2H
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
2
0
W
26.04.26
H2H
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
1
W
13.07.25
H2H
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
2
1
L
03.05.25
H2H
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
23.02.25
H2H
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
2
W
21.02.25
H2H
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
0
1
L
15.02.25
H2H
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
1
W
24.02.24
H2H
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
1
0
L
12.02.22
H2H
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
2
2
D
Last matches: São Luiz
20.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Blumenau
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
3
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cianorte
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Santa Catarina
4
4
D
11.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cascavel
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
São Luiz
Ypiranga-RS
0
2
L
19.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Barra
0
2
L
30.06.25
Ser
São Luiz
Sao Jose
1
2
L
07.06.25
Ser
São Luiz
Marcílio Dias
3
0
W
26.05.25
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
0
1
L
10.05.25
Ser
São Luiz
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
03.05.25
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
São Luiz
Azuriz
1
2
L
H2H at home: São Luiz
16.05.26
H2H
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
2
0
W
03.05.25
H2H
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
21.02.25
H2H
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
0
1
L
Last matches: Guarany de Bagé
30.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
0
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Santa Catarina
0
3
L
19.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cascavel
0
2
L
05.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cianorte
1
3
L
20.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
05.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Sao Jose
1
0
W
21.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Barra
0
3
L
25.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Azuriz
0
0
D
18.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
03.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
1
L
19.04.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
0
1
L
H2H away: Guarany de Bagé
16.05.26
H2H
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
2
0
L
03.05.25
H2H
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
L
21.02.25
H2H
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
0
1
W

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)