BRAZIL SERIE B
23.08.2026 19:00
Estadio Primeiro de Maio
Referee: F. Martins
São Bernardo
Match Timeline
Nautico Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
40'
Arnaldo
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Arnaldo ↔ Reginaldo
Nautico Recife
54'
Lucas Lima
São Bernardo
🔄
62'
Leo Indio ↔ Betao
Nautico Recife
🔄
65'
Pedrinho ↔ Leo Jaba
São Bernardo
🔄
66'
Pedro Vitor ↔ Hyoran
São Bernardo
🔄
74'
Samuel Felix ↔ P. Nunez
Nautico Recife
🔄
74'
Kauan Maranhao ↔ Luiz Claudio
Nautico Recife
🔄
81'
Romisson ↔ Hugo Sanches
São Bernardo
🔄
81'
Felipe Garcia ↔ D. Davi
São Bernardo
🔄
85'
B. Borasi ↔ Wendell
Nautico Recife
86'
Derek · Assist: Wendell
Nautico Recife
🔄
90+2'
Dudu Miraima ↔ Galdino
São Bernardo

São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 75.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
75.7%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
São Bernardo Win 38.7%
Draw 37%
Nautico Recife Win 24.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
São Bernardo1.29
Nautico Recife1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WWDLW
32 GF / 26 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
27 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
14
BTTS Yes
9
11
Over 2.5
8
4.39
Shots on Goal
4.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

São Bernardo São Bernardo 23 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 23 matches
São Bernardo Statistic Nautico Recife
8 Wins 8
7 Draws 6
8 Losses 9
32 Goals For 27
26 Goals Against 26
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
14 BTTS Yes 9
16 Over 1.5 13
11 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 9
4.39 Shots On Goal 4.74
11.83 Total Shots 16.35
4.61 Corners 5.96
48.7% Ball Possession 58%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and São Bernardo's more proactive style and Nautico Recife's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. São Bernardo have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nautico Recife. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with São Bernardo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Nautico Recife in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nautico Recife having the stronger overall control.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo sit 12 with 30 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats with a 31:25 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Pedro Vitor (3 goals), Rodrigo Ferreira (3 goals), Dudu Miraíma (2 goals), with creative support from Romisson (4 assists), Dudu Miraíma (3 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife sit 15 with 27 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 26:26, reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their threat comes through Vinícius (4 goals), Kaua Almeida da Costa (3 goals), Dodô (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, São Bernardo won 1 times, Nautico Recife won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:6 from São Bernardo's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (75.7%)
Predicted formations: São Bernardo 4-3-3 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: São Bernardo wins 1, draws 4, Nautico Recife wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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