BRAZIL SERIE B
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Estadio Primeiro de Maio
Referee: B. Vasconcelos

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 79.3%
Odds 1.40
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.25
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.41
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
79.3%
1.40
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.25
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.41
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76%
1.23
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50
Correct Score 0-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
São Bernardo Win 42.8%
Draw 20.7%
Cuiaba Win 36.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
São Bernardo1.01
Cuiaba0.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WWDLW
21 GF / 14 GA
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WLDWL
12 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
0.75
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
0.56
8
BTTS Yes
4
7
Over 2.5
2
4.06
Shots on Goal
4.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

São Bernardo São Bernardo 16 matches
Cuiaba Cuiaba 16 matches
São Bernardo Statistic Cuiaba
7 Wins 5
4 Draws 8
5 Losses 3
21 Goals For 12
14 Goals Against 9
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 0.56
8 BTTS Yes 4
10 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 2
2 Over 3.5 1
5 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 8
4.06 Shots On Goal 4.56
10.5 Total Shots 12.69
3.38 Corners 4.63
45.3% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with São Bernardo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cuiaba in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cuiaba having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cuiaba.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 25 points after 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 20:12 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Dudu Miraíma (2 goals), Pedro Vitor (2 goals), Rodrigo Ferreira (2 goals), with creative support from Dudu Miraíma (2 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), Echaporã (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cuiaba Analysis

Cuiaba sit 10 with 23 points after 16 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 12:9 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through João Basso (2 goals), Hernandes (2 goals), Pepê (1 goals), with creative support from Pepê (2 assists), João Basso (1 assists), Hernandes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.3%)
Predicted formations: São Bernardo 4-2-3-1 / Cuiaba 5-4-1

Lineups

São Bernardo
Formation
Cuiaba
Alex Alves
Alex Alves
Rodrigo Ferreira
Rodrigo Ferreira
Jemerson
Jemerson
Augusto
Augusto
Pará
Pará
Dudu Miraíma
Dudu Miraíma
Foguinho
Foguinho
Daniel Amorim
Daniel Amorim
Romisson
Romisson
Echaporã
Echaporã
Lucas Rian
Lucas Rian
Marcelo Carné
Marcelo Carné
Kauan Cristtyan
Kauan Cristtyan
João Basso
João Basso
Vitor Mendes
Vitor Mendes
Alan Empereur
Alan Empereur
Marlon Lopes
Marlon Lopes
Pepê
Pepê
Calebe Costa
Calebe Costa
Raul
Raul
Weverson
Weverson
Vinicius Peixoto
Vinicius Peixoto
São Bernardo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Alex Alves
G
2
Rodrigo Ferreira
D
35
Jemerson
D
97
Augusto
D
6
Pará
D
26
Dudu Miraíma
M
8
Foguinho
M
89
Daniel Amorim
M
17
Romisson
M
27
Echaporã
M
7
Lucas Rian
F
Substitutes
12
Júnior Oliveira
G
21
Hugo
D
25
Wellington Manzoli
D
3
Helder Maciel
D
33
Mário Sergio
D
14
Lucas Lima
M
77
Marcão Silva
M
42
Hyoran
M
37
Daniel Davi Simão Roque
F
70
Lucas Reis
F
10
Fabrício Daniel
F
29
Pedrinho
F
Cuiaba 5-4-1
Starting XI
31
Marcelo Carné
G
41
Kauan Cristtyan
D
13
João Basso
D
4
Vitor Mendes
D
33
Alan Empereur
D
6
Marlon Lopes
D
8
Pepê
M
5
Calebe Costa
M
30
Raul
M
53
Weverson
M
29
Vinicius Peixoto
F
Substitutes
1
João Carlos
G
14
Eric
D
91
Luisão
D
36
Lorenzo
D
97
Luiz Otavio
M
37
Railan
M
27
Rodrigo Rodrigues
F
20
David
M
96
Pedro Henrique
F
77
Jean Dias
F
Last matches: São Bernardo
06.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Vila Nova
1
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Criciuma
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Juventude
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Sport Recife
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
CRB
3
2
W
31.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Novorizontino
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Atletico Goianiense
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
America Mineiro
1
1
D
12.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Londrina
3
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Ponte Preta
3
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Goias
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Nautico Recife
3
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Botafogo SP
2
1
W
02.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Operario-PR
1
2
L
21.03.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Ceara
1
1
D
Last matches: Cuiaba
02.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
America Mineiro
1
0
W
25.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Londrina
2
2
D
21.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Avai
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Vila Nova
1
0
W
09.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
CRB
2
0
W
22.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Athletic Club
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Goias
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Operario-PR
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ceara
0
2
L
31.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
21.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
0
0
D
Last matches: São Bernardo
21.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Juventude
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Sport Recife
0
0
D
31.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Novorizontino
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
America Mineiro
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Ponte Preta
3
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Goias
1
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Operario-PR
1
2
L
Last matches: Cuiaba
21.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Avai
0
1
L
09.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
22.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Athletic Club
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Goias
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Operario-PR
0
0
D
31.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.31
Draw 2.94
Home 2.52
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.35
Draw 1.91
Home 3.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.14
Over 1.25 1.42
Over 1.5 1.62
Over 1.75 1.83
Over 2.0 2.20
Over 2.25 2.61
Over 2.5 2.99
Over 3.5 6.34
Under 0.5 6.07
Under 1.25 2.99
Under 1.5 2.36
Under 1.75 2.05
Under 2.0 1.71
Under 2.25 1.52
Under 2.5 1.41
Under 3.5 1.13
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.90
Home 2.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 1.91
Home 3.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 2.10
Home 2.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.12
Over 1.5 1.57
Over 2.5 2.88
Over 3.5 6.00
Over 4.5 15.00
Over 5.5 29.00
Under 0.5 6.00
Under 1.5 2.25
Under 2.5 1.40
Under 3.5 1.12
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.14
Draw 2.90
Home 2.43
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.20
Draw 1.83
Home 3.17
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.74
Draw 2.08
Home 2.85
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 0.75 1.12
Over 1.0 1.15
Over 1.25 1.39
Over 1.5 1.59
Over 1.75 1.76
Over 2.0 2.01
Over 2.25 2.31
Over 2.5 2.62
Over 2.75 3.20
Over 3.0 4.45
Over 3.25 4.85
Over 3.5 5.25
Over 3.75 7.33
Over 4.0 9.20
Over 4.5 12.00
Over 5.5 29.00
Under 0.5 5.55
Under 0.75 5.02
Under 1.0 4.40
Under 1.25 2.88
Under 1.5 2.29
Under 1.75 2.00
Under 2.0 1.67
Under 2.25 1.48
Under 2.5 1.38
Under 2.75 1.26
Under 3.0 1.14
Under 3.25 1.11
Under 3.5 1.09
Under 3.75 1.05
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 3.00
Home 2.48
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 1.93
Home 3.30
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.35
Draw 2.23
Home 2.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.09
Over 1.25 1.34
Over 1.5 1.52
Over 1.75 1.68
Over 2.0 1.97
Over 2.25 2.32
Over 2.5 2.65
Over 2.75 3.25
Over 3.5 5.40
Over 4.5 11.50
Under 0.5 6.50
Under 1.25 3.10
Under 1.5 2.40
Under 1.75 2.10
Under 2.0 1.79
Under 2.25 1.58
Under 2.5 1.44
Under 2.75 1.32
Under 3.5 1.13
Under 4.5 1.01

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 9 6 2 20:12 8 33
W W W W D
2 17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W L W L
3 16 8 6 2 27:14 13 30
W W W D W
4 17 8 5 4 17:8 9 29
W D W W W
5 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W W D L W
6 16 8 4 4 20:17 3 28
W W W L W
7 17 6 8 3 21:15 6 26
D L L D D
8 16 7 4 5 21:14 7 25
L L L D W
9 16 7 3 6 16:21 -5 24
W W L D L
10 16 5 8 3 12:9 3 23
W D L W W
11 16 5 7 4 16:16 0 22
L W L D D
12 16 6 3 7 21:19 2 21
D L L D L
13 16 5 6 5 18:19 -1 21
L W D D W
14 17 5 5 7 20:18 2 20
D W L W W
15 16 5 4 7 24:29 -5 19
L W D D L
16 16 5 3 8 24:24 0 18
W D W W L
17 16 4 5 7 15:20 -5 17
L L L D W
18 16 3 4 9 16:24 -8 13
L L W L L
19 17 2 2 13 11:33 -22 8
L L L L L
20 16 1 3 12 10:27 -17 6
L L L W L
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