BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Urbano Caldeira
Referee: R. Klein
Santos
Match Timeline
Vitoria
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Willian Arão
Santos
19'
Miguelito · Assist: C. Oliva
Santos
🟨
21'
Caique Gonçalves
Vitoria
🔄
27'
Baralhas ↔ Emmanuel Martinez
Vitoria
🟨
45+4'
Renê Sousa
Vitoria
🔄
46'
C. Oliva ↔ S. Pierri
Santos
🔄
46'
Caique Goncalves ↔ D. Tarzia
Vitoria
🟨
53'
Emmanuel Martínez
Vitoria
54'
A. Barreal
Santos
56'
Gabriel Barbosa · Assist: Miguelito
Santos
🟨
57'
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
🟥
60'
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
VAR
60'
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
🔄
60'
Luan Peres ↔ Joao Ananias
Santos
🔄
69'
Miguelito ↔ Rony
Santos
🔄
71'
Claudinho ↔ Marinho
Vitoria
🔄
71'
Neris ↔ Renato Kayzer
Vitoria
74'
Rene · Assist: D. Tarzia
Vitoria
🔄
75'
Gabriel Bontempo ↔ D. Fernandes
Santos
🔄
76'
A. Barreal ↔ B. Rollheiser
Santos
🟨
79'
Gabriel Brazão
Santos
🔄
88'
↔ Osvaldo
Vitoria
🟨
90+2'
Luan Cândido
Vitoria

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santos Win 70.7%
Draw 0%
Vitoria Win 29.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos1.36
Vitoria1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santos Santos
WWDLW
23 GF / 28 GA
Vitoria Vitoria
WLDWL
20 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
12
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
6
3.29
Shots on Goal
3.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santos Santos 17 matches
Vitoria Vitoria 16 matches
Santos Statistic Vitoria
4 Wins 6
6 Draws 4
7 Losses 6
23 Goals For 20
28 Goals Against 22
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
12 BTTS Yes 7
15 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 4
3.29 Shots On Goal 3.88
12.18 Total Shots 10.31
5.24 Corners 3.88
48.6% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vitoria. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Santos expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Vitoria in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vitoria having the stronger overall control.

Santos Analysis

Santos approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 18 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats with a 23:28 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gabriel Barbosa (6 goals), Neymar (4 goals), Benjamín Rollheiser (3 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Gabriel Bontempo (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vitoria Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Vitoria have collected 22 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 20:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Rene (4 goals), Renato Kayzer (3 goals), Diego Tarzia (2 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Luan Candido (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santos won 10 times, Vitoria won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:18 from Santos's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Santos 4-2-3-1 / Vitoria 4-3-3
Missing players: Santos 7, Vitoria 12
H2H summary: Santos wins 10, draws 2, Vitoria wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 7 3 45:21 24 52
D W L D W
2 24 14 6 4 48:21 27 48
W L W W D
3 25 13 6 6 37:25 12 45
D W D W D
4 25 11 9 5 39:32 7 42
D W W D D
5 25 10 10 5 37:30 7 40
W W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
7 25 10 7 8 33:33 0 37
W W D W L
8 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
9 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
10 25 8 8 9 26:25 1 32
L L L W D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 24 8 6 10 37:40 -3 30
L L L D W
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 24 7 8 9 34:36 -2 29
W D W L D
15 24 7 7 10 27:32 -5 28
W L L W D
16 24 6 7 11 27:37 -10 25
D D L L W
17 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
18 25 5 10 10 26:31 -5 25
L D D D D
19 25 5 8 12 30:42 -12 23
L L D D L
20 24 2 8 14 25:49 -24 14
L W D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B