BRAZIL SERIE C
25.07.2026 20:00
Referee: K. Goncalves
Santa Cruz
Match Timeline
Figueirense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
32'
Dudu
Figueirense
🟨
35'
Alex Ruan
Santa Cruz
40'
Emerson Galego
Figueirense
🟨
42'
Matheus Vinicius
Santa Cruz
🔄
46'
Matheus Vinicius ↔ Renato
Santa Cruz
🟨
50'
Pedro Favela
Santa Cruz
🔄
51'
Alex Ruan ↔ Nilton
Santa Cruz
🟨
53'
Emerson Galego
Figueirense
🔄
54'
Emerson Galego ↔ Hyuri
Figueirense
🟨
60'
William Alves
Santa Cruz
🔄
65'
Tiago Marques ↔ Eron
Santa Cruz
🔄
65'
Everaldo ↔ Ze Mario
Santa Cruz
🔄
74'
Jhonnathan ↔ Leo Maia
Figueirense
🔄
74'
Lucas Dias ↔ Felipe Santiago
Figueirense
🟨
75'
Raynan
Figueirense
🔄
77'
Ronald ↔ Fabinho
Santa Cruz
🔄
77'
Vitinho ↔ Patrick Allan
Santa Cruz
🟨
79'
Edson Miranda
Santa Cruz
🔄
84'
Breno ↔ Renan Areias
Figueirense
🔄
84'
Igor Bolt ↔ Joao Marcos
Figueirense
🔄
84'
Mailson ↔ Jose Carlos
Figueirense
🟨
90+5'
Joao Marcos
Figueirense

Santa Cruz vs Figueirense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 48.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
48.7%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santa Cruz Win 48.7%
Draw 17.6%
Figueirense Win 33.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Cruz1.12
Figueirense0.81
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Cruz Santa Cruz
WWDLW
15 GF / 11 GA
Figueirense Figueirense
WLDWL
12 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.86
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
6
BTTS Yes
8
3
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Cruz Santa Cruz 15 matches
Figueirense Figueirense 14 matches
Santa Cruz Statistic Figueirense
7 Wins 4
3 Draws 5
5 Losses 5
15 Goals For 12
11 Goals Against 18
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
6 BTTS Yes 8
7 Over 1.5 9
3 Over 2.5 7
1 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Santa Cruz's more proactive style and Figueirense's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Santa Cruz arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 24 points compared to Figueirense in 16 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Figueirense. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Santa Cruz come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Figueirense having the stronger overall control.

Santa Cruz Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 24 points from 14 games, Santa Cruz bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 15:10, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Figueirense Analysis

With 17 points from 14 games and a place of 16, Figueirense still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 12:18, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Santa Cruz won 1 times, Figueirense won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:7 from Santa Cruz's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.4%)
H2H summary: Santa Cruz wins 1, draws 1, Figueirense wins 3

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
L L L W W
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
L D W D D
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W W D W L
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W L W W W
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L W L W W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D D D D
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
D L L L W
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
W W W D W
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation