BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal Alfredo Joao Krieck
Santa Catarina
Match Timeline
São Luiz
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
79'
Brener
Santa Catarina

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santa Catarina Win 50.1%
Draw 18.2%
São Luiz Win 31.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Catarina1.31
São Luiz1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Catarina Santa Catarina
WWDLW
10 GF / 8 GA
São Luiz São Luiz
WLDWL
8 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
2
BTTS Yes
1
3
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Catarina Santa Catarina 7 matches
São Luiz São Luiz 8 matches
Santa Catarina Statistic São Luiz
3 Wins 3
1 Draws 2
3 Losses 3
10 Goals For 8
8 Goals Against 9
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
2 BTTS Yes 1
3 Over 1.5 4
3 Over 2.5 1
1 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward São Luiz. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward São Luiz having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Santa Catarina Analysis

Placed 5 with 10 points from 7 outings, Santa Catarina continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, while the 10:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Alex Goncalves (2 goals), Mendes (2 goals), Ze Leandro (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

São Luiz Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 11 points from 7 games, São Luiz bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 8:7, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Brandao (2 goals), Thiago Andre (2 goals), Valber Junior (2 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Santa Catarina won 1 times, São Luiz won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:4 from Santa Catarina's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.8%)
H2H summary: Santa Catarina wins 1, draws 1, São Luiz wins 0
Last matches: Santa Catarina
27.06.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Sao Jose
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Sao Jose
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
3
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Guarany de Bagé
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Guarany de Bagé
3
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
4
4
D
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
0
1
L
Last matches: São Luiz
19.07.26
Ser
São Luiz
CSA
0
0
D
12.07.26
Ser
São Luiz
Velo Clube
2
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
São Luiz
Velo Clube
1
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Blumenau
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Blumenau
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
3
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cascavel
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cianorte
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cianorte
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Santa Catarina
4
4
D
11.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cascavel
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
0
2
L
27.03.26
Fri
São Luiz
Ypiranga-RS
0
2
L
27.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Azuriz
0
0
D
19.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Barra
0
2
L
13.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
2
L
06.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
30.06.25
Ser
São Luiz
Sao Jose
1
2
L
H2H: Santa Catarina vs São Luiz
23.05.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
1
0
W
18.04.26
H2H
São Luiz
Santa Catarina
4
4
D
Last matches: Santa Catarina
27.06.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Sao Jose
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cascavel
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Joinville
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Guarany de Bagé
3
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Catarina
Cianorte
1
0
W
H2H at home: Santa Catarina
23.05.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
1
0
W
Last matches: São Luiz
04.07.26
Ser
São Luiz
Velo Clube
1
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
São Luiz
Blumenau
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cascavel
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
São Luiz
Cianorte
1
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
0
2
L
27.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Azuriz
0
0
D
13.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Guarany de Bagé
1
2
L
06.07.25
Ser
São Luiz
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
14.06.25
Ser
São Luiz
Joinville
1
2
L
02.06.25
Ser
São Luiz
Marcílio Dias
0
3
L
18.05.25
Ser
São Luiz
Sao Jose
0
3
L
26.04.25
Ser
São Luiz
Barra
0
3
L
H2H away: São Luiz
23.05.26
H2H
Santa Catarina
São Luiz
1
0
L

Standings

Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)