JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
Referee: H. Shimizu
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Match Timeline
V-varen Nagasaki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
A. Suzuki · Assist: S. Higashi
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🟨
29'
Diego Pituca
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
30'
H. Teruyama ↔ Dudu Giusti
V-varen Nagasaki
🟨
38'
Thiago Santana
V-varen Nagasaki
52'
M. Kato · Assist: A. Suzuki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
61'
T. Arslan ↔ K. Kinoshita
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
61'
S. Higashi ↔ S. Nakano
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
66'
H. Onaga ↔ T. Kasayanagi
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
66'
Y. Iwasaki ↔ N. Campbell
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
75'
M. Hasegawa ↔ R. Yamasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
75'
Thiago ↔ Matheus Jesus
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
77'
A. Suzuki ↔ S. Nakamura
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
77'
M. Kato ↔ Y. Nakajima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
87'
H. Kawabe ↔ T. Yamasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🟨
90+2'
Diego Pituca
V-varen Nagasaki
🟥
90+2'
Diego Pituca
V-varen Nagasaki

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 53.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
61%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
53.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win 55.1%
Draw 19.8%
V-varen Nagasaki Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.41
V-varen Nagasaki1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WWDLW
16 GF / 18 GA
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WLDWL
12 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
9
BTTS Yes
4
7
Over 2.5
5
4.5
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 11 matches
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 11 matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Statistic V-varen Nagasaki
3 Wins 5
2 Draws 0
6 Losses 6
16 Goals For 12
18 Goals Against 15
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
9 BTTS Yes 4
10 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 3
4.5 Shots On Goal 3.2
16.4 Total Shots 10.4
6.1 Corners 3.4
54.7% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Sanfrecce Hiroshima's more proactive style and V-varen Nagasaki's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring V-varen Nagasaki. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis

Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 7 with 13 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 15:14 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Suzuki (3 goals), R. Germain (3 goals), K. Kinoshita (2 goals), with creative support from A. Suzuki (2 assists), H. Kawabe (2 assists), S. Higashi (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

V-varen Nagasaki sit 8 with 12 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 defeats with a 10:15 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Matheus Jesus (4 goals), Thiago (3 goals), N. Campbell (2 goals), with creative support from Matheus Jesus (2 assists), N. Campbell (2 assists), Motoki Hasegawa (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 4 times, V-varen Nagasaki won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:1 from Sanfrecce Hiroshima's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.3%)
Predicted formations: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1 / V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins 4, draws 0, V-varen Nagasaki wins 0
Stats
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
4
6 Corner Kicks 1
5 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 1
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 3
8 Blocked Shots 4
12 Shots insidebox 4
10 Shots outsidebox 4
1 Goalkeeper Saves 7
520 Total passes 337
413 Passes accurate 234
2.70 expected_goals 0.25
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Formation
V-varen Nagasaki
K. Osako
K. Osako
T. Shiotani
T. Shiotani
H. Araki
H. Araki
S. Sasaki
S. Sasaki
N. Arai
N. Arai
H. Kawabe
H. Kawabe
T. Matsumoto
T. Matsumoto
S. Higashi
🎯
S. Higashi
M. Kato
M. Kato
T. Arslan
T. Arslan
A. Suzuki
🎯
A. Suzuki
G. Hatano
G. Hatano
R. Shindo
R. Shindo
I. Arai
I. Arai
H. Teruyama
H. Teruyama
H. Onaga
H. Onaga
H. Yamaguchi
H. Yamaguchi
Diego Pituca
Diego Pituca
S. Yoneda
S. Yoneda
M. Hasegawa
M. Hasegawa
Y. Iwasaki
Y. Iwasaki
Thiago
Thiago
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
K. Osako
G
33
T. Shiotani
D
4
H. Araki
D
19
S. Sasaki
D
13
N. Arai
M
6
H. Kawabe
↓ 87'
M
14
T. Matsumoto
M
24
S. Higashi
🎯 10' ↓ 61'
M
11
M. Kato
⚽ 52' ↓ 77'
30
T. Arslan
↓ 61'
F
10
A. Suzuki
⚽ 10' 🎯 52' ↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
99
I. Ouchi
G
3
T. Yamasaki
↑ 87'
D
39
S. Nakamura
↑ 77'
F
41
N. Maeda
F
17
K. Kinoshita
↑ 61'
F
25
Y. Chajima
M
9
R. Germain
F
15
S. Nakano
↑ 61'
D
35
Y. Nakajima
↑ 77'
M
V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
13
G. Hatano
G
50
R. Shindo
D
29
I. Arai
D
48
H. Teruyama
↓ 30'
D
22
H. Onaga
↓ 66'
M
5
H. Yamaguchi
M
21
Diego Pituca
🟨 29' 🟨 90+2' 🟥 90+2'
M
23
S. Yoneda
M
41
M. Hasegawa
↓ 75'
F
8
Y. Iwasaki
↓ 66'
F
9
Thiago
↓ 75' 🟨 38'
F
Substitutes
1
M. Goto
G
4
Dudu Giusti
↑ 30'
D
18
R. Yamasaki
↑ 75'
F
10
Matheus Jesus
↑ 75'
M
3
M. Sekiguchi
D
33
T. Kasayanagi
↑ 66'
M
24
R. Yamada
M
11
N. Campbell
↑ 66'
M
34
T. Matsumoto
M
Last matches: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
14.07.26
Fri
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
NK Slaven Belupo
3
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sturm Graz
1
5
L
06.06.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kawasaki Frontale
1
0
W
30.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
23.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
4
2
W
17.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
4
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka
1
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
02.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Fagiano Okayama
0
1
L
29.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
25.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
11.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
05.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
27.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
1
2
L
22.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulse
1
3
L
18.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
14.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka
2
0
W
27.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
22.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
Last matches: V-varen Nagasaki
17.07.26
Fri
V-varen Nagasaki
Utrecht
2
3
L
14.07.26
Fri
V-varen Nagasaki
NEC Nijmegen
1
3
L
06.06.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
30.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
23.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
0
1
L
17.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
2
2
D
09.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
06.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
W
03.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
29.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
2
1
W
25.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
1
1
D
11.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
05.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
0
3
L
21.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
W
18.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
15.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
08.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
2
3
L
28.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
1
0
W
21.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
W
13.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
0
2
L
H2H: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs V-varen Nagasaki
18.04.26
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
2
0
W
06.02.26
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
3
W
11.08.18
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
2
0
W
28.04.18
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
2
W
Last matches: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
30.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
23.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
4
2
W
06.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
11.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
05.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
14.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka
2
0
W
27.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
14.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
H2H at home: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
18.04.26
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
2
0
W
11.08.18
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
2
0
W
Last matches: V-varen Nagasaki
17.07.26
Fri
V-varen Nagasaki
Utrecht
2
3
L
14.07.26
Fri
V-varen Nagasaki
NEC Nijmegen
1
3
L
06.06.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
23.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
0
1
L
09.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
29.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
2
1
W
11.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
21.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
W
08.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
2
3
L
21.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
W
13.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
0
2
L
17.01.26
Fri
V-varen Nagasaki
Omiya Ardija
2
0
W
H2H away: V-varen Nagasaki
18.04.26
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
2
0
L
11.08.18
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
2
0
L

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)