JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
18.04.2026 05:00
Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
Referee: H. Shimizu
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Match Timeline
V-varen Nagasaki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
A. Suzuki · Assist: S. Higashi
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🟨
29'
Diego Pituca
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
30'
H. Teruyama ↔ Dudu Giusti
V-varen Nagasaki
🟨
38'
Thiago Santana
V-varen Nagasaki
⚽
52'
M. Kato · Assist: A. Suzuki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
61'
T. Arslan ↔ K. Kinoshita
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
61'
S. Higashi ↔ S. Nakano
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
66'
H. Onaga ↔ T. Kasayanagi
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
66'
Y. Iwasaki ↔ N. Campbell
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
75'
M. Hasegawa ↔ R. Yamasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
75'
Thiago ↔ Matheus Jesus
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
77'
A. Suzuki ↔ S. Nakamura
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
77'
M. Kato ↔ Y. Nakajima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
87'
H. Kawabe ↔ T. Yamasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🟨
90+2'
Diego Pituca
V-varen Nagasaki
🟥
90+2'
Diego Pituca
V-varen Nagasaki

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 53.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
61%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
53.3%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win 55.1%
Draw 19.8%
V-varen Nagasaki Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.41
V-varen Nagasaki1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WWDLW
16 GF / 18 GA
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WLDWL
12 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
9
BTTS Yes
4
7
Over 2.5
5
4.5
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 11 matches
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 11 matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Statistic V-varen Nagasaki
3 Wins 5
2 Draws 0
6 Losses 6
16 Goals For 12
18 Goals Against 15
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
9 BTTS Yes 4
10 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 3
4.5 Shots On Goal 3.2
16.4 Total Shots 10.4
6.1 Corners 3.4
54.7% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Sanfrecce Hiroshima's more proactive style and V-varen Nagasaki's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring V-varen Nagasaki. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis

Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 7 with 13 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 15:14 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Suzuki (3 goals), R. Germain (3 goals), K. Kinoshita (2 goals), with creative support from A. Suzuki (2 assists), H. Kawabe (2 assists), S. Higashi (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

V-varen Nagasaki sit 8 with 12 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 defeats with a 10:15 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Matheus Jesus (4 goals), Thiago (3 goals), N. Campbell (2 goals), with creative support from Matheus Jesus (2 assists), N. Campbell (2 assists), Motoki Hasegawa (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 4 times, V-varen Nagasaki won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:1 from Sanfrecce Hiroshima's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.3%)
Predicted formations: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1 / V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins 4, draws 0, V-varen Nagasaki wins 0

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)