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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
17.10.2026 05:00
Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
Referee: Koei Koya
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Match Timeline
Kyoto Sanga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
Kyo Sato
Kyoto Sanga
⚽
48'
Daiki Suga · Assist: Shunki Higashi
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
55'
Ryuma Nakano ↔ Alex Souza
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
55'
Takaaki Shichi ↔ Temma Matsuda
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
63'
Shun Ayukawa ↔ Mutsuki Kato
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
63'
Yotaro Nakajima ↔ Taishi Matsumoto
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
64'
Daiki Suga ↔ Kim Ju-sung
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🟨
67'
Sébastien Haller
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
72'
Takumi Kato ↔ Marco Túlio
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
72'
Sung-jun Yoon ↔ João Pedro
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
73'
Sébastien Haller ↔ Takuma Asano
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
⚽
78'
Akito Suzuki · Assist: Takuma Asano
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
80'
Hiroto Morooka ↔ Takuji Yonemoto
Kyoto Sanga
⚽
82'
Mutsuki Kato · Assist: Akito Suzuki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
86'
Akito Suzuki ↔ Takumu Kawamura
Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76%
Odds 1.37
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.47
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76%
1.37 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.47 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
2.00 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.95 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win 76%
Draw 3.6%
Kyoto Sanga Win 20.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2.18
Kyoto Sanga1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WWDLW
22 GF / 6 GA
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga
WLDWL
11 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
2.44
Average Goals Scored
1.22
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
4
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
6
7.56
Shots on Goal
4.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 9 matches
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 9 matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Statistic Kyoto Sanga
6 Wins 2
2 Draws 2
1 Losses 5
22 Goals For 11
6 Goals Against 16
2.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
4 BTTS Yes 7
7 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 0
1 Failed To Score 2
7.56 Shots On Goal 4.11
20.22 Total Shots 12.67
7 Corners 3.22
60.7% Ball Possession 46.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Sanfrecce Hiroshima's more proactive style and Kyoto Sanga's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Kyoto Sanga. Sanfrecce Hiroshima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 17 points compared to Kyoto Sanga in 14 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Kyoto Sanga in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kyoto Sanga having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis

Sanfrecce Hiroshima approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 17 points after 8 outings. With 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 20:6, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Suzuki (6 goals), S. Haller (3 goals), S. Ayukawa (3 goals), with creative support from A. Suzuki (2 assists), S. Higashi (2 assists), M. Kato (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Kyoto Sanga Analysis

Kyoto Sanga sit 14 with 8 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 11:15 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Rafael Elias (4 goals), R. Nakano (2 goals), Shinnosuke Fukuda (1 goals), with creative support from Rafael Elias (2 assists), R. Nakano (1 assists), Shinnosuke Fukuda (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 5 times, Kyoto Sanga won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:10 from Sanfrecce Hiroshima's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1 / Kyoto Sanga 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins 5, draws 2, Kyoto Sanga wins 4

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 25:6 19 23
W W W W L
2 10 7 2 1 21:8 13 23
W W W W W
3 10 7 0 3 22:17 5 21
L W W W L
4 9 6 2 1 22:10 12 20
W L D W W
5 10 6 1 3 21:16 5 19
W W D L L
6 9 6 1 2 14:9 5 19
L W W W W
7 10 4 4 2 21:16 5 16
W L D W W
8 10 4 4 2 13:9 4 16
D D W D W
9 10 5 0 5 17:21 -4 15
W L W L W
10 10 4 2 4 10:11 -1 14
D W W W L
11 9 4 1 4 12:12 0 13
L L W W W
12 10 4 0 6 12:16 -4 12
W W L L L
13 10 3 3 4 9:16 -7 12
L D D L D
14 10 2 3 5 12:14 -2 9
L L L L D
15 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D D W L
16 10 2 2 6 11:19 -8 8
L L W L L
17 9 2 1 6 11:13 -2 7
W L L D L
18 10 1 4 5 10:18 -8 7
D L L L L
19 10 1 3 6 8:19 -11 6
D D L D W
20 10 0 4 6 4:18 -14 4
L L L D D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League