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01.05.2026 13:00
Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Referee: M. Marchetti
Sampdoria
Match Timeline
Sudtirol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
30'
Salvatore Molina
Sudtirol
⚽
31'
O. Abildgaard · Assist: M. Brunori
Sampdoria
🟨
53'
Matteo Palma
Sampdoria
🔄
61'
K. Zedadka ↔ S. Verdi
Sudtirol
🔄
61'
S. Tronchin ↔ D. Crnigoj
Sudtirol
🟨
62'
Domen Črnigoj
Sudtirol
🔄
69'
M. Palma ↔ D. Hadzikadunic
Sampdoria
🔄
69'
L. Cherubini ↔ M. Cicconi
Sampdoria
🔄
74'
L. Henderson ↔ F. Conti
Sampdoria
🔄
77'
H. El Kaouakibi ↔ F. Davi
Sudtirol
🔄
82'
S. Molina ↔ R. Odogwu
Sudtirol
🔄
82'
S. Merkaj ↔ R. Tonin
Sudtirol
🟨
90+3'
Francesco Conti
Sampdoria
🔄
90+2'
T. Begic ↔ N. Pierini
Sampdoria
🔄
90+1'
M. Brunori ↔ M. Coda
Sampdoria

Sampdoria vs Sudtirol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 25.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 28.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
25.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
28.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sampdoria Win 47.9%
Draw 7.6%
Sudtirol Win 44.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sampdoria1.1
Sudtirol1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sampdoria Sampdoria
D L W W W
5 GF / 5 GA
Sudtirol Sudtirol
L L D D L
4 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
0.95
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
20
BTTS Yes
21
15
Over 2.5
16
3.54
Shots on Goal
3.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sampdoria Sampdoria 37 matches
Sudtirol Sudtirol 37 matches
Sampdoria Statistic Sudtirol
10 Wins 8
12 Draws 16
15 Losses 13
35 Goals For 38
48 Goals Against 49
0.95 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
20 BTTS Yes 21
25 Over 1.5 27
15 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 8
13 Failed To Score 13
3.54 Shots On Goal 3.35
12.57 Total Shots 11.89
4.81 Corners 4.19
50% Ball Possession 39.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Sudtirol. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Sudtirol arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sampdoria expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sudtirol in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sudtirol having the stronger overall control.

Sampdoria Analysis

Sampdoria are currently 12 in the standings with 41 points from 36 matches. The record of 10 wins, 11 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 34:47 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Coda (9 goals), Fabio Depaoli (3 goals), Tjaš Begić (3 goals), with creative support from M. Coda (3 assists), Simone Pafundi (3 assists), O. Abildgaard (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sudtirol Analysis

Sudtirol approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 40 points from 36 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 16 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 37:46 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Pecorino (9 goals), S. Merkaj (9 goals), D. Casiraghi (4 goals), with creative support from D. Casiraghi (7 assists), S. Molina (4 assists), R. Odogwu (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Sampdoria won 2 times, Sudtirol won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:10 from Sampdoria's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.4%)
Predicted formations: Sampdoria 4-2-3-1 / Sudtirol 3-5-2
H2H summary: Sampdoria wins 2, draws 1, Sudtirol wins 4

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation