FRANCE LIGUE 3
19.09.2026 12:45
Stade Robert Diochon

Rouen vs Aubagne Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.5%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.5%
-
BTTS No
56%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Rouen Win 79.5%
Draw 5.7%
Aubagne Win 14.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rouen1.55
Aubagne0.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rouen Rouen
WWDLW
15 GF / 4 GA
Aubagne Aubagne
WLDWL
6 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
0.75
0.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
3
BTTS Yes
3
4
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rouen Rouen 9 matches
Aubagne Aubagne 8 matches
Rouen Statistic Aubagne
6 Wins 1
2 Draws 2
1 Losses 5
15 Goals For 6
4 Goals Against 11
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
0.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
3 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 5
4 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 1
6 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Rouen's more proactive style and Aubagne's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aubagne. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Aubagne having the stronger overall control. Rouen arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 11 points compared to Aubagne in 16 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Aubagne arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Rouen Analysis

Rouen approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 11 points after 5 outings. With 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 8:2, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Aubagne Analysis

Aubagne approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 4 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 2:5 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Rouen won 1 times, Aubagne won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:5 from Rouen's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
H2H summary: Rouen wins 1, draws 1, Aubagne wins 2

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Rouen Home
6 4 2 0 12:2 10 14
W D W W W
2 6 4 0 2 12:5 7 12
W W L W L
3 6 3 3 0 7:4 3 12
D D W D W
4 6 3 2 1 12:10 2 11
L D D W W
5 6 2 4 0 7:2 5 10
D W W D D
6 6 2 3 1 7:6 1 9
W D D W D
7 6 3 0 3 10:11 -1 9
W L L W W
8 6 3 0 3 5:8 -3 9
W L W L W
9 6 2 2 2 4:6 -2 8
L D D W L
10 6 2 2 2 6:8 -2 8
W D W L D
11 6 2 2 2 6:2 4 8
D W W L L
12 6 2 2 2 10:7 3 8
W W L L D
13 6 2 1 3 5:6 -1 7
L D L W L
14 6 2 1 3 6:8 -2 7
L D L W L
15 6 1 2 3 5:9 -4 5
L D D L W
16 6 1 1 4 3:7 -4 4
L D W L L
17 6 1 1 4 5:13 -8 4
D L L L W
18 6 1 0 5 3:11 -8 3
L L L L L
Promotion - Ligue 2
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
Relegation