ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
--.--.---- --:--
Aesseal New York Stadium
Referee: S. Mulhall
Rotherham
Match Timeline
Luton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
K. Palmer · Assist: S. Morris
Luton
🟨
43'
James Clarke
Rotherham
44'
K. Palmer · Assist: S. Morris
Luton
🔄
46'
C. Lee ↔ D. Yearwood
Rotherham
🔄
61'
D. van den Berg ↔ G. Kodua
Luton
🔄
61'
S. Morris ↔ J. Richards
Luton
🔄
62'
A. Martha ↔ D. Hall
Rotherham
🔄
62'
J. Clarke ↔ J. Holmes
Rotherham
🔄
73'
N. Wells ↔ A. Al Hamadi
Luton
🔄
74'
L. Walsh ↔ G. Saville
Luton
🔄
86'
E. Lawrence ↔ S. Sandal
Luton
🟨
88'
Hakeem Odofin
Luton
🟨
90+1'
Josh Keeley
Luton

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 69.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 51%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
69.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
51%
-
Probability Distribution
Rotherham Win 21%
Draw 9.5%
Luton Win 69.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rotherham1.05
Luton1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rotherham Rotherham
WWDLW
39 GF / 67 GA
Luton Luton
WLDWL
67 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
1.49
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
18
BTTS Yes
25
24
Over 2.5
25
3.07
Shots on Goal
3.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rotherham Rotherham 44 matches
Luton Luton 45 matches
Rotherham Statistic Luton
10 Wins 19
10 Draws 12
24 Losses 14
39 Goals For 67
67 Goals Against 58
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.49
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
18 BTTS Yes 25
29 Over 1.5 34
24 Over 2.5 25
10 Over 3.5 14
10 Clean Sheets 12
19 Failed To Score 9
3.07 Shots On Goal 3.96
9.77 Total Shots 12.73
4.55 Corners 5.89
44.8% Ball Possession 54.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Luton's more proactive style and Rotherham's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Luton. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Luton carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 65 points while Rotherham sit 22 on 40, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Rotherham have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Rotherham Analysis

Rotherham sit 22 with 40 points after 43 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 10 draws, and 23 defeats, and the 36:62 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on S. Nombe (11 goals), J. Rafferty (4 goals), D. Hall (3 goals), with creative support from Joe Powell (4 assists), J. Benson (2 assists), S. McWilliams (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Luton Analysis

From their first 43 matches, Luton have collected 65 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 18 wins, 11 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 57:50 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Clark (11 goals), G. Kodua (9 goals), J. Richards (5 goals), with creative support from L. Walsh (6 assists), G. Saville (5 assists), E. Lawrence (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Rotherham won 0 times, Luton won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:6 from Rotherham's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.17 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.5%)
Predicted formations: Rotherham 4-2-3-1 / Luton 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Rotherham wins 0, draws 3, Luton wins 3
Stats
Rotherham Rotherham
Luton Luton
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
3
2 Corner Kicks 6
13 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 2
36% Ball Possession 64%
15 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Goal 4
5 Shots off Goal 7
7 Blocked Shots 3
8 Shots insidebox 9
7 Shots outsidebox 5
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
320 Total passes 592
214 Passes accurate 506
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Rotherham
Formation
Luton
T. Cann
T. Cann
J. Rafferty
J. Rafferty
E. Adegboyega
E. Adegboyega
Z. Jules
Z. Jules
J. Baptiste
J. Baptiste
D. Gore
D. Gore
C. Lee
C. Lee
A. Martha
A. Martha
J. Clarke
J. Clarke
H. Gray
H. Gray
S. Nombe
S. Nombe
J. Keeley
J. Keeley
N. Lonwijk
N. Lonwijk
H. Odoffin
H. Odoffin
K. Naismith
K. Naismith
J. Johnson
J. Johnson
D. van den Berg
D. van den Berg
L. Walsh
L. Walsh
S. Morris
🎯
S. Morris
K. Palmer
⚽ 2
K. Palmer
E. Lawrence
E. Lawrence
N. Wells
N. Wells
Rotherham 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
T. Cann
G
2
J. Rafferty
D
36
E. Adegboyega
D
3
Z. Jules
D
15
J. Baptiste
D
44
D. Gore
M
51
C. Lee
↓ 46'
11
A. Martha
↓ 62'
M
37
J. Clarke
↓ 62'
24
H. Gray
M
10
S. Nombe
F
Substitutes
50
B. Childs
G
9
J. Hugill
F
16
D. Yearwood
↑ 46'
M
22
D. Hall
↑ 62'
D
29
G. Biancheri
F
23
J. Holmes
↑ 62'
F
39
H. Duncan
Luton 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
24
J. Keeley
🟨 90+1'
G
17
N. Lonwijk
D
16
H. Odoffin
🟨 88'
D
3
K. Naismith
D
38
J. Johnson
D
6
D. van den Berg
↓ 61'
M
8
L. Walsh
↓ 74'
M
14
S. Morris
🎯 8' 🎯 44' ↓ 61'
M
54
K. Palmer
⚽ 8' ⚽ 44'
M
32
E. Lawrence
↓ 86'
M
21
N. Wells
↓ 73'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Shea
G
22
D. Cole
F
23
G. Saville
↑ 74'
M
12
A. Al Hamadi
↑ 73'
F
30
G. Kodua
↑ 61'
F
4
S. Sandal
↑ 86'
M
27
J. Richards
↑ 61'
M
Last matches: Rotherham
04.08.26
Fri
Rotherham
Derby
1
1
D
28.07.26
Fri
Rotherham
Darlington 1883
2
0
W
25.07.26
Fri
Rotherham
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
21.07.26
Fri
Rotherham
Alfreton Town
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Rotherham
Matlock Town
1
1
D
14.07.26
Fri
Rotherham
AFC Emley
1
1
D
10.07.26
Fri
Rotherham
Parkgate
1
0
W
02.05.26
Lea
Rotherham
Wycombe
2
3
L
25.04.26
Lea
Rotherham
Reading
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lea
Rotherham
Leyton Orient
2
0
W
14.04.26
Lea
Rotherham
Wigan
0
3
L
11.04.26
Lea
Rotherham
Barnsley
1
3
L
07.04.26
Lea
Rotherham
Port Vale
0
1
L
03.04.26
Lea
Rotherham
Stevenage
0
0
D
21.03.26
Lea
Rotherham
Lincoln
0
3
L
17.03.26
Lea
Rotherham
Peterborough
0
5
L
14.03.26
Lea
Rotherham
Bolton
2
2
D
07.03.26
Lea
Rotherham
Huddersfield
0
1
L
03.03.26
Lea
Rotherham
Mansfield Town
0
0
D
28.02.26
Lea
Rotherham
Plymouth
1
0
W
Last matches: Luton
02.08.26
Fri
Luton
GO Ahead Eagles
0
1
L
25.07.26
Fri
Luton
Al Kholood
2
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Luton
Barnet
2
2
D
11.07.26
Fri
Luton
Hitchin Town
5
0
W
02.05.26
Lea
Luton
Bolton
3
2
W
25.04.26
Lea
Luton
Barnsley
2
1
W
18.04.26
Lea
Luton
Mansfield Town
2
2
D
15.04.26
Lea
Luton
Northampton
2
1
W
06.04.26
Lea
Luton
AFC Wimbledon
3
0
W
03.04.26
Lea
Luton
Peterborough
2
1
W
21.03.26
Lea
Luton
Stockport County
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lea
Luton
Exeter City
3
2
W
14.03.26
Lea
Luton
Wycombe
2
1
W
10.03.26
Lea
Luton
Doncaster
1
1
D
07.03.26
Lea
Luton
Reading
2
3
L
28.02.26
Lea
Luton
Port Vale
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lea
Luton
Burton Albion
1
1
D
18.02.26
Lea
Luton
Wigan
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lea
Luton
Cardiff
1
3
L
07.02.26
Lea
Luton
Bradford
2
1
W
H2H: Rotherham vs Luton
21.04.26
H2H
Rotherham
Luton
0
2
L
15.11.25
H2H
Luton
Rotherham
0
0
D
15.04.23
H2H
Rotherham
Luton
0
2
L
12.11.22
H2H
Luton
Rotherham
1
1
D
04.05.21
H2H
Luton
Rotherham
0
0
D
04.11.20
H2H
Rotherham
Luton
0
1
L
Last matches: Rotherham
04.08.26
Fri
Rotherham
Derby
1
1
D
25.07.26
Fri
Rotherham
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lea
Rotherham
Reading
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lea
Rotherham
Barnsley
1
3
L
03.04.26
Lea
Rotherham
Stevenage
0
0
D
14.03.26
Lea
Rotherham
Bolton
2
2
D
03.03.26
Lea
Rotherham
Mansfield Town
0
0
D
28.02.26
Lea
Rotherham
Plymouth
1
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Rotherham
Doncaster
1
2
L
07.02.26
Lea
Rotherham
Cardiff
0
3
L
27.01.26
Lea
Rotherham
Northampton
2
1
W
24.01.26
Lea
Rotherham
AFC Wimbledon
1
1
D
01.01.26
Lea
Rotherham
Peterborough
0
2
L
20.12.25
Lea
Rotherham
Huddersfield
1
3
L
10.12.25
Lea
Rotherham
Blackpool
0
3
L
29.11.25
Lea
Rotherham
Wycombe
1
1
D
08.11.25
Lea
Rotherham
Lincoln
3
0
W
04.11.25
Lea
Rotherham
Burton Albion
2
2
D
01.11.25
FA
Rotherham
Swindon Town
1
2
L
18.10.25
Lea
Rotherham
Leyton Orient
1
0
W
H2H at home: Rotherham
21.04.26
H2H
Rotherham
Luton
0
2
L
15.04.23
H2H
Rotherham
Luton
0
2
L
04.11.20
H2H
Rotherham
Luton
0
1
L
Last matches: Luton
18.07.26
Fri
Luton
Barnet
2
2
D
11.07.26
Fri
Luton
Hitchin Town
5
0
W
02.05.26
Lea
Luton
Bolton
3
2
W
18.04.26
Lea
Luton
Mansfield Town
2
2
D
06.04.26
Lea
Luton
AFC Wimbledon
3
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Luton
Wycombe
2
1
W
10.03.26
Lea
Luton
Doncaster
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lea
Luton
Port Vale
1
1
D
18.02.26
Lea
Luton
Wigan
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lea
Luton
Cardiff
1
3
L
27.01.26
Lea
Luton
Huddersfield
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lea
Luton
Plymouth
0
1
L
01.01.26
Lea
Luton
Exeter City
0
1
L
18.12.25
Lea
Luton
Reading
2
3
L
09.12.25
Lea
Luton
Leyton Orient
1
1
D
06.12.25
FA
Luton
Fleetwood Town
2
2
D
22.11.25
Lea
Luton
Barnsley
0
5
L
08.11.25
Lea
Luton
Stockport County
3
0
W
25.10.25
Lea
Luton
Northampton
1
0
W
04.10.25
Lea
Luton
Stevenage
0
2
L
H2H away: Luton
21.04.26
H2H
Rotherham
Luton
0
2
W
15.04.23
H2H
Rotherham
Luton
0
2
W
04.11.20
H2H
Rotherham
Luton
0
1
W

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7
Luton Away
46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two