NORWAY ELITESERIEN
27.07.2026 17:00
Lerkendal Stadion
Referee: O. Nilsen
Rosenborg
Match Timeline
Fredrikstad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
A. Pereira · Assist: O. Selnaes
Rosenborg
13'
E. K. Ceide · Assist: O. Selnaes
Rosenborg
🟨
32'
Adrian Nilsen Pereira
Rosenborg
🔄
46'
J. Svensson ↔ A. F. Witry
Rosenborg
🔄
46'
J. Nunez ↔ S. Laghzaoui
Fredrikstad
🔄
57'
S. Rafn ↔ G. Wesseh
Fredrikstad
🔄
67'
O. Ohlenschlaeger ↔ J. Jezierski
Fredrikstad
🔄
70'
D. Duris ↔ J. Reitan-Sunde
Rosenborg
🔄
70'
A. Pereira ↔ T. Dahl
Rosenborg
🔄
75'
U. Fredriksen ↔ J. Nysveen
Fredrikstad
🔄
75'
F. Ghebreyohannes ↔ S. Owusu
Fredrikstad
77'
A. Chiakha · Assist: M. Bomholt
Rosenborg
🔄
81'
O. Selnaes ↔ H. Volden
Rosenborg
🔄
85'
E. K. Ceide ↔ N. Sahsah
Rosenborg
88'
I. Fossum
Rosenborg

Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.1%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Rosenborg Win 77.1%
Draw 13.7%
Fredrikstad Win 9.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rosenborg1.35
Fredrikstad1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rosenborg Rosenborg
WWDLW
26 GF / 28 GA
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
WLDWL
33 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
8
BTTS Yes
16
11
Over 2.5
13
3.62
Shots on Goal
3.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rosenborg Rosenborg 21 matches
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 23 matches
Rosenborg Statistic Fredrikstad
9 Wins 9
4 Draws 6
8 Losses 8
26 Goals For 33
28 Goals Against 35
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
8 BTTS Yes 16
17 Over 1.5 20
11 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 3
9 Failed To Score 5
3.62 Shots On Goal 3.54
11.62 Total Shots 11.31
5.62 Corners 4.23
52.6% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fredrikstad. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rosenborg expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Fredrikstad in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fredrikstad having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Rosenborg Analysis

So far, Rosenborg have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 15 points from 13 matches. The record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 15:18 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Amin Chiakha (5 goals), Simen Nordli (3 goals), Dino Islamović (2 goals), with creative support from Emil Konradsen Ceide (3 assists), Ole Selnaes (3 assists), Mads Bomholt (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fredrikstad Analysis

So far, Fredrikstad have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 14 points from 13 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 15:23 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Daniel Eid (2 goals), Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (2 goals), Rocco Robert Shein (1 goals), with creative support from Daniel Eid (1 assists), Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (1 assists), Rocco Robert Shein (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Rosenborg won 3 times, Fredrikstad won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:4 from Rosenborg's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.8%)
Predicted formations: Rosenborg 4-4-2 / Fredrikstad 3-4-3
Missing players: Rosenborg 3, Fredrikstad 5
H2H summary: Rosenborg wins 3, draws 2, Fredrikstad wins 1

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 16 2 2 52:17 35 50
W W W W W
2 20 15 2 3 51:20 31 47
W D W L W
3 20 11 3 6 43:30 13 36
W W W W L
4 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
5 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
6 20 9 3 8 36:29 7 30
W W L W W
7 20 8 3 9 24:31 -7 27
D L W W W
8 20 8 2 10 37:31 6 26
L L D W W
9 20 6 7 7 23:26 -3 25
D D D L L
10 20 6 5 9 27:41 -14 23
L L D L D
11 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
12 20 6 4 10 22:34 -12 22
W L L D W
13 20 5 5 10 18:27 -9 20
L D D W L
14 20 5 4 11 20:37 -17 19
L W D L W
15 20 3 9 8 31:45 -14 18
L W L D D
16 20 4 4 12 22:41 -19 16
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen