03.05.2026 19:00
Estadio Gigante de Arroyito
Referee: H. Mastrangelo
Rosario Central
Match Timeline
Tigre
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Joaquin Mosqueira
Tigre
38'
A. Soto · Assist: C. Quintana
Rosario Central
VAR
42'
Alexis Soto
Rosario Central
🔄
46'
J. Mosqueira ↔ B. Leyes
Tigre
🟨
52'
Juan Villalba
Tigre
🔄
59'
S. Medina ↔ D. Romero
Tigre
🔄
59'
T. Serrago ↔ E. Cabrera
Tigre
🔄
64'
L. Duarte ↔ L. Raffin
Rosario Central
🔄
64'
S. Segovia ↔ M. Cabrera
Rosario Central
🔄
67'
F. Oviedo ↔ E. Copetti
Rosario Central
🔄
67'
A. Soto ↔ L. Rios
Rosario Central
🟨
76'
Facundo Mallo
Rosario Central
🔄
77'
L. Ramos ↔ K. Gutierrez
Rosario Central
🔄
80'
S. Lopez ↔ M. Fernandez
Tigre
🔄
80'
J. Elias ↔ J. Saralegui
Tigre
81'
D. Romero
Tigre
🟥
90+6'
Jabes Saralegui
Tigre

Rosario Central vs Tigre Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 92.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
92.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Rosario Central Win 92.2%
Draw 0%
Tigre Win 7.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rosario Central1.14
Tigre1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rosario Central Rosario Central
WWDLW
25 GF / 15 GA
Tigre Tigre
WLDWL
19 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.19
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
9
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
4
5
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rosario Central Rosario Central 19 matches
Tigre Tigre 16 matches
Rosario Central Statistic Tigre
11 Wins 5
4 Draws 7
4 Losses 4
25 Goals For 19
15 Goals Against 14
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
9 BTTS Yes 8
14 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 5
5 Shots On Goal 4.2
13.83 Total Shots 13.07
5.11 Corners 3.67
57.8% Ball Possession 42.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tigre. Rosario Central arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 140 points compared to Tigre in 21 on 107, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Tigre arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Rosario Central Analysis

So far, Rosario Central have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 140 points from 88 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted - wins, - draws, and - losses, while the 0:0 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Di Maria (4 goals), A. Veliz (4 goals), E. Copetti (4 goals), with creative support from J. Campaz (4 assists), A. Di Maria (3 assists), J. Fernandez (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tigre Analysis

Tigre approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 21 with 107 points from 88 matches. Across the season they have posted - wins, - draws, and - defeats, and the 0:0 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on David Romero (6 goals), I. Russo (4 goals), A. Barrionuevo (2 goals), with creative support from I. Russo (3 assists), David Romero (2 assists), A. Barrionuevo (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Rosario Central won 2 times, Tigre won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:13 from Rosario Central's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.44 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 / Tigre 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Rosario Central wins 2, draws 4, Tigre wins 3

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
W L W D L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
W W W D W
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
D D W D L
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W D L D W
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
D D D L W
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D W W L L
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
W D D D L
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
L L L D L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
D D D L L
10
Tigre Away
16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L D W D
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
D W L W W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
D L L L W
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
L W D D W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L W L L D
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L D D L
Knockout Phase