29.08.2026 20:00
Estadio Gigante de Arroyito
Referee: D. Herrera
Rosario Central
Match Timeline
Gimnasia L.P.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
32'
Nacho Fernández
Gimnasia L.P.
VAR
33'
Marco Rubén
Rosario Central
🟨
45+2'
Ignacio Ovando
Rosario Central
🔄
46'
A. Sandez ↔ A. Soto
Rosario Central
🔄
46'
I. Ovando ↔ F. Mallo Blanco
Rosario Central
🔄
53'
M. Zalazar ↔ F. Torres
Gimnasia L.P.
59'
C. Ledesma
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
67'
G. Cantizano ↔ F. Navarro
Rosario Central
🔄
67'
V. Pizarro ↔ E. Copetti
Rosario Central
🔄
70'
A. Auzmendi ↔ A. Colazo
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
71'
L. Janson ↔ R. Giampaoli
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
76'
Ignacio Miramón
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
78'
Federico Navarro
Rosario Central
🔄
83'
M. Ruben ↔ T. Badaloni
Rosario Central
86'
J. Campaz · Assist: T. Badaloni
Rosario Central
88'
I. Miramon
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
89'
N. Fernandez ↔ A. Max
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
90+2'
Bautista Barros Schelotto
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
90'
M. Seoane ↔ M. Panaro
Gimnasia L.P.

Rosario Central vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.4%
Odds 1.74
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.61
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.4%
1.74
BTTS No
50.8%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
1.61
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.7%
1.28
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 1-0
-
5.50
Probability Distribution
Rosario Central Win 55.4%
Draw 12.9%
Gimnasia L.P. Win 31.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rosario Central1.22
Gimnasia L.P.1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rosario Central Rosario Central
WWDLW
43 GF / 29 GA
Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P.
WLDWL
40 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
15
BTTS Yes
14
16
Over 2.5
15
4.76
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rosario Central Rosario Central 35 matches
Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P. 29 matches
Rosario Central Statistic Gimnasia L.P.
18 Wins 15
8 Draws 4
9 Losses 10
43 Goals For 40
29 Goals Against 35
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
15 BTTS Yes 14
22 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 15
4 Over 3.5 7
14 Clean Sheets 9
11 Failed To Score 7
4.76 Shots On Goal 3.83
13.91 Total Shots 11.25
5.15 Corners 3.83
56.6% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Rosario Central's more proactive style and Gimnasia L.P.'s more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gimnasia L.P.. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Rosario Central Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 28 points from 16 games, Rosario Central bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 20:16, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Enzo Copetti (3 goals), Julián Fernández (2 goals), Ángel Di María (1 goals), with creative support from Ángel Di María (2 assists), Carlos Quintana (2 assists), Julián Fernández (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Gimnasia L.P. Analysis

Gimnasia L.P. are currently 6 in the standings with 26 points from 16 matches. The record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 19:19 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marcelo Torres (4 goals), Agustín Auzmendi (2 goals), Franco Torres (2 goals), with creative support from Alexis Steimbach (4 assists), Agustín Auzmendi (2 assists), Pedro Silva (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Rosario Central won 8 times, Gimnasia L.P. won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:15 from Rosario Central's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.1%)
Predicted formations: Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 / Gimnasia L.P. 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Rosario Central wins 8, draws 2, Gimnasia L.P. wins 5

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
W L W D L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
L W W W D
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
L D D W D
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W W D L D
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W D D D L
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D W W L
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
W W D D D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
W L L L D
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
D D D L L
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L D W D
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
L D W L W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
D D L L L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
L W D D W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L W L L D
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L D D
Knockout Phase