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RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
16.09.2026 15:30
Arena Khimki
Referee: Rafael Shafeev, Russia
Rodina Moskva
Match Timeline
Rubin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
30'
Brian Mansilla
Rodina Moskva
🟨
41'
Veldin Hodža
Rubin
🟨
50'
Leon Musaev
Rodina Moskva
🟨
50'
Ilya Rozhkov
Rubin
🔄
57'
B. Mansilla ↔ M. Abdusalamov
Rodina Moskva
🔄
58'
Y. Reyna ↔ A. Maksimenko
Rodina Moskva
🟨
59'
Jacques Siwe
Rubin
🔄
64'
J. Siwe ↔ D. Kuznetsov
Rubin
🔄
65'
V. Hodza ↔ N. Lobov
Rubin
🔄
65'
B. Jocic ↔ I. Saavedra
Rubin
🔄
72'
G. Onugkha ↔ I. Timoshenko
Rodina Moskva
🔄
72'
I. Rozhkov ↔ E. Teslenko
Rubin
⚽
79'
D. Machado · Assist: S. Bessmertniy
Rodina Moskva
🔄
80'
S. Bessmertniy ↔ A. Sokol
Rodina Moskva
🔄
80'
D. Maldonado ↔ U. Babaev
Rubin
🔄
81'
L. Musaev ↔ R. Fishchenko
Rodina Moskva
⚽
82'
A. Arroyo · Assist: I. Vujacic
Rubin

Rodina Moskva vs Rubin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 81.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
81.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
80.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rodina Moskva Win 11.8%
Draw 6.6%
Rubin Win 81.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rodina Moskva0.87
Rubin1.76
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva
WWDLW
17 GF / 40 GA
Rubin Rubin
WLDWL
29 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
1.53
2.11
Average Goals Conceded
0.84
10
BTTS Yes
12
12
Over 2.5
6
2.75
Shots on Goal
3.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva 19 matches
Rubin Rubin 19 matches
Rodina Moskva Statistic Rubin
2 Wins 9
5 Draws 7
12 Losses 3
17 Goals For 29
40 Goals Against 16
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
2.11 Avg Goals Conceded 0.84
10 BTTS Yes 12
15 Over 1.5 17
12 Over 2.5 6
7 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 2
2.75 Shots On Goal 3.13
8.13 Total Shots 10.88
3 Corners 4
42.4% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Rubin's more proactive style and Rodina Moskva's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Rubin. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rodina Moskva expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Rubin in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rubin having the stronger overall control. Rodina Moskva have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Rubin carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 10 points while Rodina Moskva sit 14 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Rodina Moskva Analysis

Rodina Moskva sit 14 with 4 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 8:19 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Maksimenko (3 goals), Iker Pozo (2 goals), A. Gharibyan (2 goals), with creative support from A. Maksimenko (1 assists), Iker Pozo (1 assists), A. Gharibyan (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rubin Analysis

Rubin sit 8 with 10 points after 7 league matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 10:9 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Siwe (3 goals), M. Daku (2 goals), I. Rozhkov (1 goals), with creative support from M. Daku (1 assists), I. Rozhkov (1 assists), E. Staver (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Rodina Moskva won 2 times, Rubin won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:3 from Rodina Moskva's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.4%)
Predicted formations: Rodina Moskva 4-2-3-1 / Rubin 5-4-1
Missing players: Rodina Moskva 1, Rubin 1
H2H summary: Rodina Moskva wins 2, draws 1, Rubin wins 1

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 1 2 15:8 7 22
W W W W W
2 10 6 4 0 18:9 9 22
W W D W D
3 10 7 0 3 22:11 11 21
W W W L W
4 10 6 3 1 16:10 6 21
L D D D W
5 10 6 2 2 17:8 9 20
D W W L D
6
Rubin Away
10 2 6 2 12:12 0 12
L D D D W
7 10 2 6 2 11:10 1 12
W D L D D
8 10 3 3 4 14:12 2 12
D L D L W
9 10 4 0 6 15:20 -5 12
L L L W L
10 10 2 6 2 14:15 -1 12
D D W D D
11 10 2 5 3 13:13 0 11
D L W D D
12 10 3 2 5 11:17 -6 11
W L L W L
13 10 2 4 4 13:11 2 10
W D L W L
14 10 1 5 4 11:19 -8 8
L W D D D
15 10 1 2 7 10:25 -15 5
L D L L L
16 10 0 3 7 6:18 -12 3
L L D L L
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL