FRANCE LIGUE 2
18.09.2026 18:00
Stade Paul Lignon
Referee: Gael Angoula
Rodez
Match Timeline
Nancy
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
Ilyes Housni · Assist: Pape Meissa Ba
Nancy
7'
Yannis Nahounou
Rodez
🟨
16'
Loni Laurent
Rodez
20'
Raphael Lipinski · Assist: Antonin Cartillier
Rodez
47'
Pape Meissa Ba · Assist: Nordine Kandil
Nancy
51'
Nehemiah Fernandez · Assist: Nordine Kandil
Nancy
59'
Jean Lambert Evan's · Assist: Mathis Touho
Rodez
🔄
64'
Steven Luyambula Biwa ↔ Corentin Issanchou Roubiou
Rodez
🔄
64'
Nachon Nsingi ↔ Kenny Nagera
Rodez
🔄
64'
Nordine Kandil ↔ Zakaria Fdaouch
Nancy
🟨
72'
Mathis Saka
Rodez
74'
Pape Meissa Ba
Nancy
🔄
80'
Jean Lambert Evan's ↔ Ryan Ponti
Rodez
🔄
80'
Mathis Saka ↔ Octave Joly
Rodez
🔄
80'
Loni Laurent ↔ Damjan Pavlović
Rodez
🔄
86'
El Hadari Raheriniaina ↔ Chafik El Hansar
Nancy
🔄
86'
Pape Meissa Ba ↔ Mamadou Fofana
Nancy
🟨
90+1'
Mathis Magnin
Rodez
🔄
90+4'
Walid Bouabdeli ↔ Jeremy Gelin
Nancy

Rodez vs Nancy Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.4%
Odds 2.43
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.92
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.4%
2.43
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
1.92
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.23
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Rodez Win 63.4%
Draw 9.2%
Nancy Win 27.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rodez1.73
Nancy1.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rodez Rodez
WWDLW
25 GF / 22 GA
Nancy Nancy
WLDWL
23 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
2.27
Average Goals Scored
1.77
2
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
9
BTTS Yes
5
8
Over 2.5
6
6
Shots on Goal
2.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rodez Rodez 11 matches
Nancy Nancy 13 matches
Rodez Statistic Nancy
5 Wins 4
2 Draws 5
4 Losses 4
25 Goals For 23
22 Goals Against 12
2.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
9 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 8
8 Over 2.5 6
7 Over 3.5 5
0 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 4
6 Shots On Goal 2.83
15.67 Total Shots 12.33
7.17 Corners 3.83
48.8% Ball Possession 55%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Nancy's more proactive style and Rodez's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nancy. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rodez expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Nancy in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nancy having the stronger overall control.

Rodez Analysis

From their first 5 matches, Rodez have collected 7 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 11:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ibrahima Baldé (5 goals), C. Roubiou (2 goals), R. Ponti (1 goals), with creative support from R. Lipinski (3 assists), R. Ponti (1 assists), J. Mendes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nancy Analysis

Nancy sit 7 with 7 points after 5 league matches. The record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 3:2 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Bokangu (3 goals), N. Fernandez-Veliz (1 goals), with creative support from I. Housni (2 assists), Z. Fdaouch (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Rodez won 2 times, Nancy won 0 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:7 from Rodez's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.9%)
Predicted formations: Rodez 5-3-2 / Nancy 4-4-2
H2H summary: Rodez wins 2, draws 6, Nancy wins 0

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 19:8 11 16
D L W W W
2 7 4 2 1 9:7 2 14
W W W L D
3 7 3 4 0 15:9 6 13
D W D W W
4 7 3 3 1 6:5 1 12
D W L D W
5 7 2 4 1 10:7 3 10
D L W D D
6
Nancy Away
7 3 1 3 8:7 1 10
W L L W W
7 7 3 1 3 9:9 0 10
L L W D L
8 7 2 4 1 4:5 -1 10
D W D D W
9 7 2 3 2 10:10 0 9
W W D L D
10 7 2 2 3 6:6 0 8
W L D D L
11 7 2 2 3 10:12 -2 8
L W D D L
12 7 2 2 3 10:12 -2 8
L W D L L
13 7 2 2 3 8:11 -3 8
D W L W L
14
Rodez Home
7 2 1 4 14:16 -2 7
L L L D W
15 7 2 1 4 9:13 -4 7
W L W D L
16 7 0 6 1 4:6 -2 6
D D D D D
17 7 0 5 2 3:5 -2 5
L D D D D
18 7 1 2 4 8:14 -6 5
D L L L D
Promotion - Ligue 1
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3