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FRANCE › LIGUE 2
19.10.2026 18:45
Stade Paul Lignon
Referee: Geoffrey Kubler

Rodez vs Montpellier Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.7%
Odds 2.56
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.65
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.7%
2.56 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.65 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.23 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Rodez Win 36.1%
Draw 4.2%
Montpellier Win 59.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rodez1.74
Montpellier1.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rodez Rodez
WWDLW
30 GF / 28 GA
Montpellier Montpellier
WLDWL
24 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
2.14
Average Goals Scored
1.85
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
10
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
5
5.63
Shots on Goal
4.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rodez Rodez 14 matches
Montpellier Montpellier 13 matches
Rodez Statistic Montpellier
6 Wins 8
2 Draws 3
6 Losses 2
30 Goals For 24
28 Goals Against 15
2.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
10 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 8
9 Over 2.5 5
8 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 1
5.63 Shots On Goal 4.63
14.5 Total Shots 13.13
6.63 Corners 5.63
46.4% Ball Possession 57.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Montpellier's more proactive style and Rodez's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Montpellier carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 15 points while Rodez sit 15 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Rodez have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Montpellier. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rodez expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Montpellier in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Montpellier having the stronger overall control.

Rodez Analysis

Rodez approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 7 points from 8 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats with a 14:18 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Ibrahima Baldé (5 goals), C. Roubiou (2 goals), R. Lipinski (1 goals), with creative support from R. Lipinski (3 assists), R. Ponti (1 assists), J. Mendes (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Montpellier Analysis

Placed 3 with 15 points from 8 outings, Montpellier continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 8:5 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through N. Pays (2 goals), T. Sainte-Luce (1 goals), N. Mukiele (1 goals), with creative support from T. Sainte-Luce (1 assists), N. Mukiele (1 assists), F. Tardieu (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Rodez won 3 times, Montpellier won 6 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:17 from Rodez's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Rodez 5-3-2 / Montpellier 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Rodez wins 3, draws 0, Montpellier wins 6

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 1 1 22:8 14 22
W W D L W
2 9 4 5 0 19:11 8 17
W D D W D
3 9 5 2 2 12:10 2 17
L W W W W
4 9 5 1 3 11:8 3 16
W W W L L
5 8 4 3 1 8:5 3 15
W D W L D
6 9 4 2 3 11:9 2 14
W W W L D
7 9 3 4 2 15:13 2 13
W L D L W
8 9 4 1 4 11:11 0 13
L W L L W
9 9 3 3 3 16:16 0 12
L W W W D
10 9 3 2 4 13:15 -2 11
W L L W D
11 9 2 5 2 7:9 -2 11
L D D W D
12 9 1 6 2 6:6 0 9
W D L D D
13 9 2 2 5 11:15 -4 8
L L L W D
14 9 2 2 5 11:16 -5 8
L D W L W
15 9 2 2 5 8:15 -7 8
L L D W L
16 9 0 7 2 9:12 -3 7
D L D D D
17
Rodez Home
8 2 1 5 14:18 -4 7
L L L L D
18 9 1 3 5 13:20 -7 6
D L D L L
Promotion - Ligue 1
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3