ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
19.04.2026 20:00
Estadio Monumental
Referee: Dario Herrera, Argentina
River Plate
Match Timeline
Boca Juniors
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
Adam Bareiro
Boca Juniors
🔄
18'
S. Driussi ↔ M. Salas
River Plate
🟨
34'
Facundo Colidio
River Plate
🟨
42'
Lautaro Rivero
River Plate
VAR
45+3'
Miguel Merentiel
Boca Juniors
45'
L. Paredes
Boca Juniors
🔄
46'
J. Meza ↔ Giuliano Galoppo
River Plate
🔄
57'
K. Paez ↔ J. Freitas
River Plate
🟨
60'
Marcos Acuña
River Plate
🟨
60'
Leandro Paredes
Boca Juniors
🔄
69'
Miguel Merentiel ↔ E. Zeballos
Boca Juniors
🔄
72'
L. Paredes ↔ A. Herrera
Boca Juniors
🔄
72'
T. Aranda ↔ T. Belmonte
Boca Juniors
🔄
82'
A. Bareiro ↔ M. Gimenez
Boca Juniors
🟨
83'
Lucas Martínez Quarta
River Plate
🟨
86'
Milton Giménez
Boca Juniors
🔄
88'
L. Rivero ↔ I. Subiabre
River Plate
🟨
90+4'
Gonzalo Montiel
River Plate
🟨
90+3'
Maximiliano Salas
River Plate
🟨
90+3'
Ander Herrera
Boca Juniors

River Plate vs Boca Juniors Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 52%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 59.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
52%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
59.7%
-
Probability Distribution
River Plate Win 49.5%
Draw 11.7%
Boca Juniors Win 38.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
River Plate1.06
Boca Juniors1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
River Plate River Plate
WWDLW
21 GF / 9 GA
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
WLDWL
24 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.6
Average Goals Conceded
0.56
4
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
6
5.54
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

River Plate River Plate 15 matches
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 18 matches
River Plate Statistic Boca Juniors
10 Wins 9
2 Draws 7
3 Losses 2
21 Goals For 24
9 Goals Against 10
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.6 Avg Goals Conceded 0.56
4 BTTS Yes 8
9 Over 1.5 13
4 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 0
9 Clean Sheets 10
3 Failed To Score 3
5.54 Shots On Goal 4.2
16.23 Total Shots 12
5.38 Corners 4.8
64.5% Ball Possession 61.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Boca Juniors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. River Plate come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with River Plate expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Boca Juniors in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Boca Juniors having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

River Plate Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 149 points from 86 games, River Plate bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded - wins, - draws, and - losses, with a 0:0 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on G. Montiel (4 goals), S. Driussi (4 goals), F. Colidio (2 goals), with creative support from J. Quintero (2 assists), I. Subiabre (2 assists), A. Moreno (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Boca Juniors Analysis

Boca Juniors arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 150 points after 86 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted - wins, - draws, and - losses, while the 0:0 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Miguel Merentiel (4 goals), Adam Bareiro (2 goals), Santiago Ascacíbar (2 goals), with creative support from L. Paredes (3 assists), Miguel Merentiel (2 assists), Adam Bareiro (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, River Plate won 5 times, Boca Juniors won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:13 from River Plate's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.86 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.3%)
Predicted formations: River Plate 4-2-3-1 / Boca Juniors 4-4-2
H2H summary: River Plate wins 5, draws 4, Boca Juniors wins 5

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
W D L W L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
W D W L L
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
W D L W W
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
L D W W W
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
D L W W D
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
W L L W W
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
D D L W D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
L D L L L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
D L L L W
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
D W D W D
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
L W W W W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
L L W L D
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
D D W L D
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L L D L L
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
D D L L D
Knockout Phase