LATVIA VIRSLIGA
18.07.2026 16:00
Skonto stadions
Referee: E. Malcevs

Riga vs Tukums Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Riga Win 88%
Draw 6%
Tukums Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Riga2.39
Tukums1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Riga Riga
WWDLW
82 GF / 33 GA
Tukums Tukums
WLDWL
42 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
2.65
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
2
19
BTTS Yes
23
25
Over 2.5
20
3.5
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Riga Riga 31 matches
Tukums Tukums 25 matches
Riga Statistic Tukums
22 Wins 3
5 Draws 10
4 Losses 12
82 Goals For 42
33 Goals Against 50
2.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 2
19 BTTS Yes 23
29 Over 1.5 25
25 Over 2.5 20
16 Over 3.5 12
11 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 1
3.5 Shots On Goal 0
8 Total Shots 0
1 Corners 0
26.5% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Riga's more proactive style and Tukums's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Riga come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Tukums. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tukums having the stronger overall control. Riga arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 55 points compared to Tukums in 9 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Riga Analysis

Riga approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 55 points after 22 outings. The return of 17 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 65:19, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 9 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums sit 9 with 17 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 37:44, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Riga won 12 times, Tukums won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 54:9 from Riga's perspective. 13 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Riga 3-5-2 / Tukums 3-5-2
H2H summary: Riga wins 12, draws 2, Tukums wins 1

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Riga Home
31 22 7 2 86:30 56 73
W W D D L
2 29 23 4 2 70:21 49 73
W D W D W
3 30 18 6 6 48:29 19 60
W D W D W
4 31 12 7 12 41:43 -2 43
D D D W L
5 31 10 9 12 35:35 0 39
D L D L D
6 30 10 5 15 29:40 -11 35
L L W W D
7 31 8 8 15 32:49 -17 32
L D L W W
8 31 5 11 15 21:52 -31 26
D D L W L
9 31 5 9 17 44:61 -17 24
D L W L L
10 31 4 6 21 30:76 -46 18
W L D L L