LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Skonto stadions
Referee: V. Spasjonnikovs
Riga
Match Timeline
Super Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
S. Oulad M'Hand
Riga
🟨
26'
I. Ndiaye
Super Nova
29'
Caio Ferreira · Assist: M. Diop
Riga
37'
M. Diop · Assist: M. Badamosi
Riga
43'
M. Badamosi · Assist: S. Oulad M'Hand
Riga
🔄
46'
I. Ndiaye ↔ M. Tihonovics
Super Nova
🟨
55'
A. Cernomordijs
Riga
🔄
57'
M. Tonisevs ↔ K. Wassom
Riga
🔄
57'
S. Oulad M'Hand ↔ Reginaldo Ramires
Riga
🔄
58'
M. Diop ↔ Juan Christian
Riga
🔄
61'
E. Emsis ↔ R. Sitjakovs
Super Nova
🔄
61'
A. Glaudans ↔ A. Grikovs
Super Nova
🔄
67'
R. Iida ↔ K. Skadmanis
Super Nova
🟨
74'
O. Galo
Riga
🔄
78'
J. Cirulis ↔ K. Romanovs
Super Nova
🔄
80'
A. Ankrah ↔ Abner
Riga
🔄
85'
Caio Ferreira ↔ R. Aouani
Riga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Riga Win 60%
Draw 9.4%
Super Nova Win 30.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Riga2.26
Super Nova1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Riga Riga
WWDLW
59 GF / 27 GA
Super Nova Super Nova
WLDWL
23 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
2.81
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
16
BTTS Yes
12
19
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Riga Riga 21 matches
Super Nova Super Nova 18 matches
Riga Statistic Super Nova
14 Wins 7
4 Draws 3
3 Losses 8
59 Goals For 23
27 Goals Against 26
2.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
16 BTTS Yes 12
20 Over 1.5 14
19 Over 2.5 9
13 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 3
0 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Riga's more proactive style and Super Nova's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Riga arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 30 points compared to Super Nova in 5 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Super Nova. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Super Nova having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Riga Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 30 points from 13 games, Riga bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 42:16, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Badamosi (8 goals), Iago Siqueira (6 goals), S. Panic (6 goals), with creative support from Reginaldo Ramires (5 assists), A. Salazar (5 assists), A. Cernomordijs (4 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Super Nova Analysis

Placed 5 with 17 points from 13 outings, Super Nova continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 15:18 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Glaudans (3 goals), M. Oss (3 goals), V. Lizunovs (3 goals), with creative support from Facu (5 assists), A. Glaudans (1 assists), V. Lizunovs (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Riga won 13 times, Super Nova won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 48:9 from Riga's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 4.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Riga 4-3-2-1 / Super Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Riga wins 13, draws 1, Super Nova wins 0

Lineups

Riga
Formation
Super Nova
F. Orols
F. Orols
M. Tonisevs
M. Tonisevs
A. Cernomordijs
A. Cernomordijs
Paulo Eduardo
Paulo Eduardo
R. Jurkovskis
R. Jurkovskis
A. Ankrah
A. Ankrah
Caio Ferreira
Caio Ferreira
S. Oulad M'Hand
🎯
S. Oulad M'Hand
O. Galo
O. Galo
M. Diop
🎯
M. Diop
M. Badamosi
🎯
M. Badamosi
D. Veisbuks
D. Veisbuks
I. Ndiaye
I. Ndiaye
M. Oss
M. Oss
J. Cirulis
J. Cirulis
R. Iida
R. Iida
Bamba
Bamba
E. Emsis
E. Emsis
Facu
Facu
A. Glaudans
A. Glaudans
N. Pathe
N. Pathe
V. Lizunovs
V. Lizunovs
Riga 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
91
F. Orols
23
M. Tonisevs
↓ 57'
34
A. Cernomordijs
🟨 55'
33
Paulo Eduardo
13
R. Jurkovskis
40
A. Ankrah
↓ 80'
99
Caio Ferreira
⚽ 29' ↓ 85'
18
S. Oulad M'Hand
🎯 43' ↓ 57' 🟨 25'
4
O. Galo
🟨 74'
22
M. Diop
⚽ 37' 🎯 29' ↓ 58'
19
M. Badamosi
⚽ 43' 🎯 37'
Substitutes
1
K. Zviedris
44
M. Kazainis
29
E. Maurs-Boks
7
R. Aouani
↑ 85'
5
K. Wassom
↑ 57'
10
Reginaldo Ramires
↑ 57'
70
Juan Christian
↑ 58'
11
B. Pena
3
Abner
↑ 80'
Super Nova 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
90
D. Veisbuks
20
I. Ndiaye
↓ 46' 🟨 26'
25
M. Oss
5
J. Cirulis
↓ 78'
3
R. Iida
↓ 67'
9
Bamba
6
E. Emsis
↓ 61'
14
Facu
7
A. Glaudans
↓ 61'
27
N. Pathe
10
V. Lizunovs
Substitutes
13
S. Vilkovs
18
M. Vasilevskis
24
R. Sitjakovs
↑ 61'
21
M. Tihonovics
↑ 46'
22
K. Skadmanis
↑ 67'
16
K. Romanovs
↑ 78'
29
A. Baghdasaryan
19
A. Grikovs
↑ 61'
Last matches: Riga
07.07.26
UEF
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
0
2
L
03.07.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
29.06.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
21.06.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
28.04.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
3
3
D
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
18.04.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
14.04.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
4
1
W
09.04.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
04.04.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
8
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Riga
Legia Warszawa
1
3
L
Last matches: Super Nova
06.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
01.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
22.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
15.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
H2H: Riga vs Super Nova
24.05.26
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
14.04.26
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
W
30.08.25
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
2
6
W
22.06.25
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
W
01.05.25
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
5
W
06.03.25
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
W
29.10.23
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
1
1
D
06.08.23
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
5
W
31.05.23
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
5
1
W
20.04.23
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
0
4
W
30.09.22
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
W
17.07.22
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
1
0
W
10.05.22
H2H
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
W
01.04.22
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
W
Last matches: Riga
03.07.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
3
0
W
21.06.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
09.04.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
14.03.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
4
2
W
27.01.26
Fri
Riga
Pyunik Yerevan
1
1
D
23.01.26
Fri
Riga
Žilina
3
2
W
27.08.25
UEF
Riga
Sparta Praha
1
0
W
07.08.25
UEF
Riga
Beitar Jerusalem
3
0
W
24.07.25
UEF
Riga
Dila
2
1
W
H2H at home: Riga
24.05.26
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
22.06.25
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
W
06.03.25
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
W
29.10.23
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
1
1
D
31.05.23
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
5
1
W
17.07.22
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
1
0
W
01.04.22
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
W
Last matches: Super Nova
01.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
22.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
08.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Paide
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
11.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Trans Narva
3
1
W
14.01.26
Fri
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
2
5
L
H2H away: Super Nova
24.05.26
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
L
22.06.25
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
L
06.03.25
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
L
29.10.23
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
1
1
D
31.05.23
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
5
1
L
17.07.22
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
1
0
L
01.04.22
H2H
Riga
Super Nova
2
0
L

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 18 2 2 54:16 38 56
D W W W L
2
Riga Home
22 17 4 1 65:19 46 55
W W D W W
3 22 12 4 6 37:26 11 40
D L D W L
4 22 8 4 10 28:34 -6 28
L W L L L
5 22 7 6 9 25:29 -4 27
W L D W D
6 22 6 7 9 24:38 -14 25
L W W W L
7 22 7 3 12 23:35 -12 24
L W L L D
8 22 4 8 10 15:33 -18 20
W L D L W
9 22 3 8 11 37:44 -7 17
L L L L W
10 22 3 4 15 21:55 -34 13
W L W L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga