LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Skonto stadions
Referee: S. Vasjkovs
Riga
Match Timeline
Grobiņa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
45'
R. Jurkovskis · Assist: M. Tonisevs
Riga
🟨
65'
M. Sidorovs
Grobiņa
🔄
66'
M. Fjodorovs ↔ J. Ribeiro
Grobiņa
🔄
66'
O. Rascevskis ↔ A. Aruna
Grobiņa
🔄
73'
M. Diop ↔ R. Aouani
Riga
🔄
73'
Caio Ferreira ↔ Juan Christian
Riga
🔄
86'
M. Sidorovs ↔ R. Gaucis
Grobiņa
🔄
86'
J. Krautmanis ↔ I. Matyushenko
Grobiņa
🟨
90+1'
M. Badamosi
Riga
🔄
90+3'
M. Tonisevs ↔ Abner
Riga
90'
M. Badamosi
Riga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.7%
Odds 1.12
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds 2.62
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.7%
1.12
BTTS BTTS No
26%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
2.62
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.57
Correct Score 2-0
-
6.50
Probability Distribution
Riga Win 79.7%
Draw 0%
Grobiņa Win 20.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Riga2.35
Grobiņa1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Riga Riga
WWDLW
62 GF / 27 GA
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WLDWL
24 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
2.82
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
16
BTTS Yes
13
20
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Riga Riga 22 matches
Grobiņa Grobiņa 22 matches
Riga Statistic Grobiņa
15 Wins 4
4 Draws 10
3 Losses 8
62 Goals For 24
27 Goals Against 36
2.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
16 BTTS Yes 13
21 Over 1.5 17
20 Over 2.5 7
13 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 3
0 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Riga's more proactive style and Grobiņa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Riga come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Grobiņa having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Riga arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 33 points compared to Grobiņa in 9 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Grobiņa.

Riga Analysis

Riga approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 33 points after 14 outings. The return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 45:17, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Badamosi (9 goals), D. Lemajic (6 goals), Iago Siqueira (6 goals), with creative support from Reginaldo Ramires (5 assists), A. Salazar (5 assists), R. Savalnieks (5 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Grobiņa Analysis

So far, Grobiņa have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 12 points from 14 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 9:23 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Puzirevskis (4 goals), A. Kholod (2 goals), D. Druzinins (1 goals), with creative support from M. Sidorovs (2 assists), A. Puzirevskis (1 assists), R. Baravykas (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Riga won 8 times, Grobiņa won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:2 from Riga's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.11 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Riga wins 8, draws 1, Grobiņa wins 0

Lineups

Riga
Formation
Grobiņa
F. Orols
F. Orols
M. Tonisevs
🎯
M. Tonisevs
A. Cernomordijs
A. Cernomordijs
Paulo Eduardo
Paulo Eduardo
R. Jurkovskis
R. Jurkovskis
A. Ankrah
A. Ankrah
Caio Ferreira
Caio Ferreira
S. Oulad M'Hand
S. Oulad M'Hand
K. Wassom
K. Wassom
M. Diop
M. Diop
M. Badamosi
M. Badamosi
V. Kudrjavcevs
V. Kudrjavcevs
K. Rupeiks
K. Rupeiks
O. Olatunde-Matthew
O. Olatunde-Matthew
D. Druzinins
D. Druzinins
J. Krautmanis
J. Krautmanis
R. Baravykas
R. Baravykas
O. Rascevskis
O. Rascevskis
M. Fjodorovs
M. Fjodorovs
G. Kluskins
G. Kluskins
M. Sidorovs
M. Sidorovs
A. Puzirevskis
A. Puzirevskis
Riga 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
91
F. Orols
23
M. Tonisevs
🎯 45' ↓ 90+3'
34
A. Cernomordijs
33
Paulo Eduardo
13
R. Jurkovskis
⚽ 45'
40
A. Ankrah
99
Caio Ferreira
↓ 73'
18
S. Oulad M'Hand
5
K. Wassom
22
M. Diop
↓ 73'
19
M. Badamosi
⚽ 90' 🟨 90+1'
Substitutes
1
K. Zviedris
44
M. Kazainis
29
E. Maurs-Boks
7
R. Aouani
↑ 73'
70
Juan Christian
↑ 73'
11
B. Pena
3
Abner
↑ 90+3'
28
A. Mandeke
Grobiņa 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
V. Kudrjavcevs
2
K. Rupeiks
8
O. Olatunde-Matthew
3
D. Druzinins
7
J. Krautmanis
↓ 86'
27
R. Baravykas
11
O. Rascevskis
↓ 66'
23
M. Fjodorovs
↓ 66'
32
G. Kluskins
14
M. Sidorovs
↓ 86' 🟨 65'
99
A. Puzirevskis
Substitutes
12
N. Pincuks
87
J. Ribeiro
↑ 66'
19
R. Gaucis
↑ 86'
13
A. Aruna
↑ 66'
10
D. Dobrecovs
29
I. Matyushenko
↑ 86'
25
D. Sirbu
20
H. Yamada
17
R. Bethers
Last matches: Riga
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
20.05.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
1
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
28.04.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
3
3
D
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
18.04.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
14.04.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
4
1
W
09.04.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
04.04.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
8
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Riga
Legia Warszawa
1
3
L
20.03.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
1
W
14.03.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
4
2
W
07.03.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
24.02.26
Fri
Riga
Flora Tallinn
3
0
W
12.02.26
Fri
Riga
LNZ Cherkasy
3
1
W
05.02.26
Fri
Riga
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
2
L
27.01.26
Fri
Riga
Pyunik Yerevan
1
1
D
Last matches: Grobiņa
25.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
2
L
15.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
02.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
3
L
13.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
09.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
1
L
05.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
1
1
D
21.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
14.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
2
L
07.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
25.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Metta / LU
3
1
W
15.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Hegelmann Litauen
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Minija
1
1
D
31.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Banga
5
3
W
24.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Suduva Marijampole
1
1
D
H2H: Riga vs Grobiņa
18.04.26
H2H
Grobiņa
Riga
0
3
W
02.11.25
H2H
Grobiņa
Riga
1
1
D
10.08.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
14.06.25
H2H
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
W
19.04.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
31.08.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
6
1
W
22.06.24
H2H
Grobiņa
Riga
0
6
W
02.05.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
10.03.24
H2H
Grobiņa
Riga
0
1
W
Last matches: Riga
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
09.04.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
14.03.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
4
2
W
27.01.26
Fri
Riga
Pyunik Yerevan
1
1
D
23.01.26
Fri
Riga
Žilina
3
2
W
27.08.25
UEF
Riga
Sparta Praha
1
0
W
07.08.25
UEF
Riga
Beitar Jerusalem
3
0
W
24.07.25
UEF
Riga
Dila
2
1
W
H2H at home: Riga
10.08.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
19.04.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
31.08.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
6
1
W
02.05.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
Last matches: Grobiņa
25.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
05.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
1
1
D
21.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
25.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Metta / LU
3
1
W
15.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Hegelmann Litauen
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Suduva Marijampole
1
1
D
21.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
2
3
L
H2H away: Grobiņa
10.08.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
L
19.04.25
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
L
31.08.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
6
1
L
02.05.24
H2H
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 17.00
Draw 7.50
Home 1.12
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 10.00
Draw 2.88
Home 1.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 9.00
Draw 3.50
Home 1.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.00
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.44
Over 3.5 2.00
Over 4.5 3.40
Over 5.5 6.00
Over 6.5 9.00
Over 7.5 13.00
Over 8.5 21.00
Over 9.5 21.00
Under 0.5 21.00
Under 1.5 5.50
Under 2.5 2.62
Under 3.5 1.73
Under 4.5 1.30
Under 5.5 1.11
Under 6.5 1.04
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Under 9.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 15.00
Draw 6.60
Home 1.12
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 11.60
Draw 2.76
Home 1.51
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 11.10
Draw 3.80
Home 1.32
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.5 1.09
Over 1.75 1.11
Over 2.0 1.14
Over 2.25 1.26
Over 2.5 1.38
Over 2.75 1.46
Over 3.0 1.57
Over 3.25 1.79
Over 3.5 1.98
Over 3.75 2.17
Over 4.0 2.56
Over 4.25 2.81
Over 4.5 3.05
Over 4.75 3.58
Over 5.0 4.65
Over 5.25 4.94
Over 5.5 5.20
Over 6.0 8.50
Under 0.5 16.50
Under 1.0 12.50
Under 1.5 5.25
Under 1.75 4.89
Under 2.0 4.45
Under 2.25 3.20
Under 2.5 2.62
Under 2.75 2.38
Under 3.0 2.14
Under 3.25 1.89
Under 3.5 1.72
Under 3.75 1.55
Under 4.0 1.40
Under 4.25 1.33
Under 4.5 1.28
Under 4.75 1.21
Under 5.0 1.12
Under 5.25 1.11
Under 5.5 1.10
Under 6.0 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 12.50
Draw 6.25
Home 1.15
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.5 1.42
Over 3.5 2.06
Over 4.5 3.40
Over 5.5 5.60
Under 1.5 5.00
Under 2.5 2.55
Under 3.5 1.63
Under 4.5 1.24
Under 5.5 1.08

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 14 1 1 38:11 27 43
W W W W W
2
Riga Home
16 12 3 1 50:17 33 39
W W W D W
3 16 11 1 4 32:20 12 34
W W W L L
4 16 6 4 6 21:23 -2 22
W D L W W
5 16 6 2 8 18:23 -5 20
L L W W D
6 16 5 3 8 19:24 -5 18
D L W L L
7 16 3 6 7 12:30 -18 15
D D L D D
8 16 2 7 7 29:30 -1 13
L L L D D
9 16 2 7 7 10:26 -16 13
L D L D D
10 16 0 4 12 13:38 -25 4
L D L L L