AUSTRIA › BUNDESLIGA
21.04.2026 18:30
Innviertel Arena
Referee: D. Pfister
Ried
Match Timeline
Grazer AK
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Tobias Koch
Grazer AK
⚽
28'
A. Bajic · Assist: A. Leitner
Ried
⚽
35'
K. Mutandwa · Assist: A. Bajic
Ried
🟨
38'
Mathias Olesen
Grazer AK
🟨
38'
Leon Klassen
Grazer AK
🟨
45+1'
Donovan Pines
Grazer AK
🔄
46'
C. Lichtenberger ↔ M. Satin
Grazer AK
🔄
46'
L. Vraa-Jensen ↔ M. Kreuzriegler
Grazer AK
🔄
46'
M. Bagrationi ↔ D. Frieser
Grazer AK
🔄
62'
A. Hofleitner ↔ M. Grosse
Grazer AK
⚽
67'
M. Grosse · Assist: D. Frieser
Grazer AK
🔄
72'
J. Nasrawe ↔ J. Mayer
Ried
🔄
72'
N. Bajlicz ↔ M. Rasner
Ried
🔄
75'
T. Koch ↔ T. Paumgartner
Grazer AK
🔄
78'
A. van Wyk ↔ E. E. Aisowieren
Ried
🟨
83'
Ante Bajić
Ried
🟨
90+1'
Martin Rasner
Ried

Ried vs Grazer AK Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Ried Win 53.3%
Draw 14.8%
Grazer AK Win 32%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ried1.43
Grazer AK1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ried Ried
WWDLW
45 GF / 39 GA
Grazer AK Grazer AK
WLDWL
32 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
16
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
15
3.7
Shots on Goal
3.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ried Ried 32 matches
Grazer AK Grazer AK 28 matches
Ried Statistic Grazer AK
14 Wins 7
6 Draws 9
12 Losses 12
45 Goals For 32
39 Goals Against 41
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
16 BTTS Yes 17
25 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 7
10 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 10
3.7 Shots On Goal 3.3
12.19 Total Shots 9.89
4.22 Corners 3.7
48.3% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ried expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Grazer AK in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Grazer AK having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Grazer AK.

Ried Analysis

Ried come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 22 points from 27 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, while the 33:36 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Mutandwa (12 goals), Peter Kiedl (4 goals), Philipp Pomer (4 goals), with creative support from Philipp Pomer (4 assists), A. Bajic (3 assists), A. van Wyk (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grazer AK Analysis

Grazer AK approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 20 points after 27 outings. The return of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats, together with goals at 31:39, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Harakate (11 goals), D. Maderner (6 goals), Alexander Hofleitner (4 goals), with creative support from R. Harakate (4 assists), D. Maderner (2 assists), Alexander Hofleitner (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, which underlines a weak split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Ried won 2 times, Grazer AK won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:12 from Ried's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.22 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.2%)
Predicted formations: Ried 4-2-3-1 / Grazer AK 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Ried wins 2, draws 2, Grazer AK wins 5

Standings

Bundesliga: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 2 8 33:26 7 38
?
2 22 10 7 5 42:26 16 37
?
3 22 11 4 7 32:30 2 37
?
4 22 11 3 8 34:30 4 36
?
5 22 9 6 7 26:25 1 33
?
6 22 8 9 5 29:24 5 33
?
7 22 8 7 7 31:30 1 31
?
8 22 7 8 7 22:23 -1 29
?
9
Ried Home
22 8 4 10 26:30 -4 28
?
10 22 7 5 10 31:32 -1 26
?
11 22 4 8 10 22:36 -14 20
?
12 22 4 3 15 20:36 -16 15
?
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Bundesliga (Relegation Group)