AUSTRIA BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Innviertel Arena
Referee: D. Pfister
Ried
Match Timeline
Grazer AK
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Tobias Koch
Grazer AK
28'
A. Bajic · Assist: A. Leitner
Ried
35'
K. Mutandwa · Assist: A. Bajic
Ried
🟨
38'
Mathias Olesen
Grazer AK
🟨
38'
Leon Klassen
Grazer AK
🟨
45+1'
Donovan Pines
Grazer AK
🔄
46'
C. Lichtenberger ↔ M. Satin
Grazer AK
🔄
46'
L. Vraa-Jensen ↔ M. Kreuzriegler
Grazer AK
🔄
46'
M. Bagrationi ↔ D. Frieser
Grazer AK
🔄
62'
A. Hofleitner ↔ M. Grosse
Grazer AK
67'
M. Grosse · Assist: D. Frieser
Grazer AK
🔄
72'
J. Nasrawe ↔ J. Mayer
Ried
🔄
72'
N. Bajlicz ↔ M. Rasner
Ried
🔄
75'
T. Koch ↔ T. Paumgartner
Grazer AK
🔄
78'
A. van Wyk ↔ E. E. Aisowieren
Ried
🟨
83'
Ante Bajić
Ried
🟨
90+1'
Martin Rasner
Ried

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Ried Win 53.3%
Draw 14.8%
Grazer AK Win 32%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ried1.43
Grazer AK1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ried Ried
WWDLW
45 GF / 39 GA
Grazer AK Grazer AK
WLDWL
32 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
16
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
15
3.7
Shots on Goal
3.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ried Ried 32 matches
Grazer AK Grazer AK 28 matches
Ried Statistic Grazer AK
14 Wins 7
6 Draws 9
12 Losses 12
45 Goals For 32
39 Goals Against 41
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
16 BTTS Yes 17
25 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 7
10 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 10
3.7 Shots On Goal 3.3
12.19 Total Shots 9.89
4.22 Corners 3.7
48.3% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ried expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Grazer AK in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Grazer AK having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Grazer AK.

Ried Analysis

Ried come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 22 points from 27 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, while the 33:36 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Mutandwa (12 goals), Peter Kiedl (4 goals), Philipp Pomer (4 goals), with creative support from Philipp Pomer (4 assists), A. Bajic (3 assists), A. van Wyk (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grazer AK Analysis

Grazer AK approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 20 points after 27 outings. The return of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats, together with goals at 31:39, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Harakate (11 goals), D. Maderner (6 goals), Alexander Hofleitner (4 goals), with creative support from R. Harakate (4 assists), D. Maderner (2 assists), Alexander Hofleitner (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, which underlines a weak split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Ried won 1 times, Grazer AK won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:12 from Ried's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.38 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.2%)
Predicted formations: Ried 4-2-3-1 / Grazer AK 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Ried wins 1, draws 2, Grazer AK wins 5
Stats
Ried Ried
Grazer AK Grazer AK
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 4
8 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 1
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Goal 2
7 Shots off Goal 2
4 Blocked Shots 1
11 Shots insidebox 2
6 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
376 Total passes 373
294 Passes accurate 279
2.22 expected_goals 0.53
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Ried
Formation
Grazer AK
A. Leitner
🎯
A. Leitner
N. Havenaar
N. Havenaar
M. Sollbauer
M. Sollbauer
O. Steurer
O. Steurer
P. Pomer
P. Pomer
Y. Maart
Y. Maart
N. Bajlicz
N. Bajlicz
A. Bajic
🎯
A. Bajic
J. Nasrawe
J. Nasrawe
A. van Wyk
A. van Wyk
K. Mutandwa
K. Mutandwa
F. Stolz
F. Stolz
B. Owusu
B. Owusu
D. Pines
D. Pines
L. Vraa-Jensen
L. Vraa-Jensen
M. Olesen
M. Olesen
L. Klassen
L. Klassen
T. Koch
T. Koch
C. Lichtenberger
C. Lichtenberger
M. Bagrationi
M. Bagrationi
A. Hofleitner
A. Hofleitner
R. Harakate
R. Harakate
Ried 3-3-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Leitner
🎯 28'
G
5
N. Havenaar
D
23
M. Sollbauer
D
30
O. Steurer
D
17
P. Pomer
M
6
Y. Maart
M
28
N. Bajlicz
↓ 72'
M
12
A. Bajic
⚽ 28' 🎯 35' 🟨 83'
F
19
J. Nasrawe
↓ 72'
M
29
A. van Wyk
↓ 78'
F
7
K. Mutandwa
⚽ 35'
F
Substitutes
36
M. Kostenbauer
G
3
J. Scherzer
D
25
D. Kirnbauer
D
26
J. Mayer
↑ 72'
M
13
P. Kiedl
F
24
C. Wernitznig
M
8
M. Rasner
↑ 72' 🟨 90+1'
M
47
E. E. Aisowieren
↑ 78'
M
15
J. Boguo
F
Grazer AK 3-1-4-2
Starting XI
12
F. Stolz
G
82
B. Owusu
D
2
D. Pines
🟨 45+1'
D
3
L. Vraa-Jensen
↓ 46'
D
6
M. Olesen
🟨 38'
M
32
L. Klassen
🟨 38'
M
8
T. Koch
↓ 75' 🟨 12'
M
10
C. Lichtenberger
↓ 46'
M
23
M. Bagrationi
↓ 46'
25
A. Hofleitner
↓ 62'
F
22
R. Harakate
F
Substitutes
26
C. Nicht
G
1
J. Meierhofer
G
7
M. Satin
↑ 46'
M
16
F. Baumgartner
F
4
M. Kreuzriegler
↑ 46'
D
28
D. Frieser
🎯 67' ↑ 46'
11
M. Grosse
⚽ 67' ↑ 62'
F
15
L. Graf
D
24
T. Paumgartner
↑ 75'
M
Last matches: Ried
26.06.26
Fri
Ried
Austria Salzburg
2
2
D
25.05.26
Bun
Ried
Rapid Vienna
0
3
L
22.05.26
Bun
Ried
Rapid Vienna
2
1
W
19.05.26
Bun
Ried
Wolfsberger AC
2
1
W
16.05.26
Bun
Ried
SCR Altach
0
2
L
09.05.26
Bun
Ried
Wolfsberger AC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Bun
Ried
FC BW Linz
2
0
W
25.04.26
Bun
Ried
WSG Wattens
0
1
L
17.04.26
Bun
Ried
Grazer AK
1
1
D
11.04.26
Bun
Ried
Wolfsberger AC
0
0
D
03.04.26
Bun
Ried
SCR Altach
3
2
W
27.03.26
Fri
Ried
WSPG Wels
2
1
W
21.03.26
Bun
Ried
FC BW Linz
2
3
L
18.03.26
Cup
Ried
Lask Linz
1
2
L
14.03.26
Bun
Ried
WSG Wattens
2
1
W
08.03.26
Bun
Ried
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
01.03.26
Bun
Ried
Grazer AK
1
2
L
22.02.26
Bun
Ried
WSG Wattens
1
1
D
14.02.26
Bun
Ried
Lask Linz
1
1
D
08.02.26
Bun
Ried
Sturm Graz
0
1
L
Last matches: Grazer AK
24.06.26
Fri
Grazer AK
Slovan Bratislava
0
1
L
19.06.26
Fri
Grazer AK
Gyori ETO FC
2
2
D
16.05.26
Bun
Grazer AK
FC BW Linz
3
0
W
09.05.26
Bun
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
2
2
D
02.05.26
Bun
Grazer AK
WSG Wattens
4
0
W
25.04.26
Bun
Grazer AK
Wolfsberger AC
0
1
L
17.04.26
Bun
Grazer AK
Ried
1
1
D
11.04.26
Bun
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
0
1
L
04.04.26
Bun
Grazer AK
FC BW Linz
2
1
W
26.03.26
Fri
Grazer AK
SV Kapfenberg
2
0
W
21.03.26
Bun
Grazer AK
WSG Wattens
5
1
W
14.03.26
Bun
Grazer AK
Wolfsberger AC
2
0
W
08.03.26
Bun
Grazer AK
WSG Wattens
0
2
L
01.03.26
Bun
Grazer AK
Ried
2
1
W
21.02.26
Bun
Grazer AK
TSV Hartberg
0
1
L
15.02.26
Bun
Grazer AK
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
08.02.26
Bun
Grazer AK
Wolfsberger AC
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Grazer AK
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Grazer AK
Voitsberg
5
1
W
21.01.26
Fri
Grazer AK
Radomlje
1
1
D
H2H: Ried vs Grazer AK
21.04.26
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
2
1
W
17.04.26
H2H
Grazer AK
Ried
1
1
D
01.03.26
H2H
Grazer AK
Ried
2
1
L
27.09.25
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
0
0
D
29.03.24
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
0
1
L
01.09.23
H2H
Grazer AK
Ried
1
0
L
10.06.20
H2H
Grazer AK
Ried
4
2
L
23.08.19
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
1
2
L
Last matches: Ried
26.06.26
Fri
Ried
Austria Salzburg
2
2
D
22.05.26
Bun
Ried
Rapid Vienna
2
1
W
19.05.26
Bun
Ried
Wolfsberger AC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Bun
Ried
Wolfsberger AC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Bun
Ried
FC BW Linz
2
0
W
03.04.26
Bun
Ried
SCR Altach
3
2
W
27.03.26
Fri
Ried
WSPG Wels
2
1
W
18.03.26
Cup
Ried
Lask Linz
1
2
L
14.03.26
Bun
Ried
WSG Wattens
2
1
W
08.03.26
Bun
Ried
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
14.02.26
Bun
Ried
Lask Linz
1
1
D
31.01.26
Cup
Ried
Rapid Vienna
3
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Ried
Austria Salzburg
4
1
W
23.01.26
Fri
Ried
České Budějovice
2
0
W
13.12.25
Bun
Ried
SCR Altach
3
0
W
29.11.25
Bun
Ried
Wolfsberger AC
1
0
W
08.11.25
Bun
Ried
FC BW Linz
2
1
W
26.10.25
Bun
Ried
Rapid Vienna
0
2
L
04.10.25
Bun
Ried
WSG Wattens
2
0
W
27.09.25
Bun
Ried
Grazer AK
0
0
D
H2H at home: Ried
21.04.26
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
2
1
W
27.09.25
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
0
0
D
29.03.24
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
0
1
L
23.08.19
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
1
2
L
Last matches: Grazer AK
16.05.26
Bun
Grazer AK
FC BW Linz
3
0
W
25.04.26
Bun
Grazer AK
Wolfsberger AC
0
1
L
11.04.26
Bun
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
0
1
L
21.03.26
Bun
Grazer AK
WSG Wattens
5
1
W
08.03.26
Bun
Grazer AK
WSG Wattens
0
2
L
21.02.26
Bun
Grazer AK
TSV Hartberg
0
1
L
08.02.26
Bun
Grazer AK
Wolfsberger AC
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Grazer AK
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
21.01.26
Fri
Grazer AK
Radomlje
1
1
D
07.12.25
Bun
Grazer AK
Sturm Graz
1
2
L
23.11.25
Bun
Grazer AK
Rapid Vienna
2
1
W
08.11.25
Bun
Grazer AK
Austria Vienna
1
2
L
25.10.25
Bun
Grazer AK
Lask Linz
0
1
L
27.09.25
Bun
Grazer AK
Ried
0
0
D
13.09.25
Bun
Grazer AK
FC BW Linz
0
3
L
24.08.25
Bun
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
1
1
D
09.08.25
Bun
Grazer AK
Red Bull Salzburg
0
5
L
25.07.25
Cup
Grazer AK
Dornbirn
0
1
L
H2H away: Grazer AK
21.04.26
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
2
1
L
27.09.25
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
0
0
D
29.03.24
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
0
1
W
23.08.19
H2H
Ried
Grazer AK
1
2
W

Standings

Bundesliga: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 2 8 33:26 7 38
?
2 22 10 7 5 42:26 16 37
?
3 22 11 4 7 32:30 2 37
?
4 22 11 3 8 34:30 4 36
?
5 22 9 6 7 26:25 1 33
?
6 22 8 9 5 29:24 5 33
?
7 22 8 7 7 31:30 1 31
?
8 22 7 8 7 22:23 -1 29
?
9
Ried Home
22 8 4 10 26:30 -4 28
?
10 22 7 5 10 31:32 -1 26
?
11 22 4 8 10 22:36 -14 20
?
12 22 4 3 15 20:36 -16 15
?
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Bundesliga (Relegation Group)