BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Arena Pernambuco
Retrô
Match Timeline
Lagarto
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
Bruninho
Lagarto
31'
Bruno Marques
Retrô

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 85.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
85.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Retrô Win 48.3%
Draw 37.5%
Lagarto Win 14.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Retrô1.52
Lagarto1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Retrô Retrô
WWDLW
9 GF / 14 GA
Lagarto Lagarto
WLDWL
10 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.43
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.86
5
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Retrô Retrô 7 matches
Lagarto Lagarto 7 matches
Retrô Statistic Lagarto
2 Wins 1
1 Draws 3
4 Losses 3
9 Goals For 10
14 Goals Against 13
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.86
5 BTTS Yes 6
6 Over 1.5 6
6 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 2
0 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Lagarto having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lagarto. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Retrô Analysis

Retrô approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 7 points from 7 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 9:14 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Radsley (4 goals), Bruno Marques (1 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lagarto Analysis

Lagarto sit 5 with 6 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 10:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Rhuann (5 goals), Erik Gabriel (3 goals), Alessandro (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Retrô won 1 times, Lagarto won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Retrô's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (85.8%)
H2H summary: Retrô wins 1, draws 1, Lagarto wins 0
Last matches: Retrô
14.06.26
Ser
Retrô
Treze
3
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Retrô
Serra Branca
0
0
D
17.05.26
Ser
Retrô
Decisão
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Retrô
Sergipe
0
1
L
04.05.26
Ser
Retrô
Sergipe
1
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Decisão
2
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Lagarto
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Serra Branca
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Treze
0
3
L
Last matches: Lagarto
27.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
CSA
0
2
L
21.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
CSA
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Serra Branca
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Serra Branca
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Retrô
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
5
4
W
05.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
1
D
10.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
2
2
D
03.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
União Carmolandense
0
1
L
19.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Barcelona BA
2
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
1
W
06.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Penedense
4
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
ASA
0
1
L
16.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Jequié
2
1
W
11.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Juazeirense
1
2
L
H2H: Retrô vs Lagarto
24.05.26
H2H
Retrô
Lagarto
1
1
D
18.04.26
H2H
Lagarto
Retrô
1
2
W
Last matches: Retrô
14.06.26
Ser
Retrô
Treze
3
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Retrô
Decisão
2
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Retrô
Sergipe
1
3
L
12.04.26
Ser
Retrô
Serra Branca
2
2
D
H2H at home: Retrô
24.05.26
H2H
Retrô
Lagarto
1
1
D
Last matches: Lagarto
27.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
CSA
0
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Serra Branca
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
1
D
03.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
União Carmolandense
0
1
L
12.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
1
W
28.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
ASA
0
1
L
11.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Juazeirense
1
2
L
25.05.25
Ser
Lagarto
Jequié
1
3
L
10.05.25
Ser
Lagarto
Penedense
1
0
W
26.04.25
Ser
Lagarto
Barcelona BA
2
2
D
H2H away: Lagarto
24.05.26
H2H
Retrô
Lagarto
1
1
D

Standings

Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)