FRANCE › LIGUE 1
10.05.2026 19:00
Roazhon Park
Referee: T. Leonard
Rennes
Match Timeline
Paris FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
I. Kebbal ↔ M. Lopez
Paris FC
⚽
53'
W. Geubbels
Paris FC
🔄
66'
L. Blas ↔ B. Embolo
Rennes
🔄
67'
S. Szymanski ↔ A. Nordin
Rennes
🔄
71'
W. Geubbels ↔ C. Immobile
Paris FC
⚽
74'
E. Lepaul · Assist: Q. Merlin
Rennes
⚽
75'
D. Coppola
Rennes
🔄
76'
M. Nagida ↔ A. Seidu
Rennes
🔄
76'
H. Traore ↔ A. Camara
Paris FC
🔄
77'
A. Gory ↔ J. Ikone
Paris FC
🔄
83'
P. Lees-Melou ↔ V. Marchetti
Paris FC
🟨
87'
Maxime López
Paris FC
🔄
87'
E. Lepaul ↔ D. Cisse
Rennes
🟨
89'
Ciro Immobile
Paris FC

Rennes vs Paris FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rennes Win 62.3%
Draw 3.9%
Paris FC Win 33.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rennes1.62
Paris FC1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rennes Rennes
WWDLW
62 GF / 50 GA
Paris FC Paris FC
WLDWL
48 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.37
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
19
BTTS Yes
19
25
Over 2.5
18
5.17
Shots on Goal
3.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rennes Rennes 35 matches
Paris FC Paris FC 35 matches
Rennes Statistic Paris FC
18 Wins 12
8 Draws 11
9 Losses 12
62 Goals For 48
50 Goals Against 49
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
19 BTTS Yes 19
29 Over 1.5 25
25 Over 2.5 18
17 Over 3.5 11
11 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 10
5.17 Shots On Goal 3.91
14.83 Total Shots 11.54
6.11 Corners 4.46
54.3% Ball Possession 51.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Rennes's more proactive style and Paris FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Paris FC. Rennes come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rennes expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Paris FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Paris FC having the stronger overall control.

Rennes Analysis

Rennes come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 56 points after 32 matches. With 16 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 56:46, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by B. Embolo (8 goals), Mousa Tamari (6 goals), L. Blas (5 goals), with creative support from Mousa Tamari (6 assists), Valentin Rongier (5 assists), L. Blas (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the split of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Paris FC Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Paris FC have collected 41 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Their overall return of 10 wins, 11 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 44:47 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by I. Kebbal (9 goals), M. Munetsi (4 goals), W. Geubbels (4 goals), with creative support from I. Kebbal (4 assists), M. Simon (3 assists), M. Lopez (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Rennes won 2 times, Paris FC won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from Rennes's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Rennes 4-4-2 / Paris FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Rennes 2, Paris FC 3
H2H summary: Rennes wins 2, draws 0, Paris FC wins 0

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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