SWEDEN ETTAN - NORRA
27.09.2026 10:00
Umea Energi Arena

Umeå FC vs FBK Karlstad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.4%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Umeå FC Win 31%
Draw 15.6%
FBK Karlstad Win 53.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Umeå FC1.47
FBK Karlstad1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Umeå FC Umeå FC
WWDLW
51 GF / 50 GA
FBK Karlstad FBK Karlstad
WLDWL
51 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
18
BTTS Yes
16
20
Over 2.5
18
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Umeå FC Umeå FC 34 matches
FBK Karlstad FBK Karlstad 31 matches
Umeå FC Statistic FBK Karlstad
13 Wins 15
6 Draws 6
15 Losses 10
51 Goals For 51
50 Goals Against 44
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
18 BTTS Yes 16
27 Over 1.5 26
20 Over 2.5 18
14 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights FBK Karlstad's more proactive style and Umeå FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FBK Karlstad. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FBK Karlstad having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Umeå FC Analysis

So far, Umeå FC have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 26 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 28:37 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FBK Karlstad Analysis

So far, FBK Karlstad have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 39 points from 23 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 36:32 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Umeå FC won 2 times, FBK Karlstad won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:3 from Umeå FC's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.4%)
H2H summary: Umeå FC wins 2, draws 1, FBK Karlstad wins 0

Standings

North
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 16 3 4 55:19 36 51
W W W W W
2 23 13 4 6 41:30 11 43
L W W W W
3 23 12 6 5 48:22 26 42
L D W L D
4 23 12 6 5 40:27 13 42
W W L L W
5 23 11 6 6 35:23 12 39
D D L L D
6 23 11 6 6 36:32 4 39
D D W W W
7 23 12 3 8 37:38 -1 39
D W W W L
8 23 9 5 9 42:40 2 32
W L L W W
9 23 9 3 11 29:41 -12 30
W L W L D
10 23 8 5 10 31:37 -6 29
W W L W W
11 23 8 4 11 29:38 -9 28
L L W L D
12 23 5 9 9 21:31 -10 24
D L L W L
13 23 6 6 11 34:48 -14 24
L D L L L
14 23 4 6 13 27:44 -17 18
W L L W L
15 23 5 3 15 30:50 -20 18
L W L L L
16 23 3 5 15 43:58 -15 14
L L W L L