COLOMBIA PRIMERA B
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Estadio Villa Concha

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 77.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
77.3%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Real Santander Win 22.7%
Draw 34.5%
Patriotas Win 42.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Santander0.83
Patriotas1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Santander Real Santander
WWDLW
10 GF / 28 GA
Patriotas Patriotas
WLDWL
16 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
0.63
Average Goals Scored
1
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
9
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Santander Real Santander 16 matches
Patriotas Patriotas 16 matches
Real Santander Statistic Patriotas
1 Wins 5
4 Draws 5
11 Losses 6
10 Goals For 16
28 Goals Against 18
0.63 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
9 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
0 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Patriotas. Patriotas carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 17 points while Real Santander sit 16 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Real Santander have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Patriotas having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Real Santander Analysis

Real Santander sit 16 with 7 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 9:23 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Patriotas Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Patriotas have collected 17 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Their overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 13:17 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Real Santander won 2 times, Patriotas won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:10 from Real Santander's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (77.3%)
H2H summary: Real Santander wins 2, draws 1, Patriotas wins 4
Last matches: Real Santander
26.07.26
Pri
Real Santander
Real Cartagena
1
5
L
18.04.26
Pri
Real Santander
Bogota FC
1
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Real Santander
Leones FC
0
1
L
08.04.26
Pri
Real Santander
Barranquilla
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Real Santander
Envigado
1
3
L
26.03.26
Pri
Real Santander
Union Magdalena
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Real Santander
Tigres FC
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
Real Santander
Orsomarso
0
2
L
10.03.26
Pri
Real Santander
Popayan
1
1
D
05.03.26
Pri
Real Santander
Quindio
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Real Santander
Internacional Palmira
0
1
L
24.02.26
Pri
Real Santander
Ind. Yumbo
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
Real Santander
Real Soacha
2
1
W
04.02.26
Pri
Real Santander
Depor FC
1
1
D
30.01.26
Pri
Real Santander
Patriotas
0
2
L
23.01.26
Pri
Real Santander
Real Cartagena
0
1
L
27.10.25
Pri
Real Santander
Huila
2
1
W
20.10.25
Pri
Real Santander
Internacional Palmira
0
1
L
10.10.25
Pri
Real Santander
Cucuta
0
2
L
04.10.25
Pri
Real Santander
Quindio
0
1
L
Last matches: Patriotas
26.07.26
Pri
Patriotas
Internacional Palmira
3
1
W
18.04.26
Pri
Patriotas
Envigado
0
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Patriotas
Real Cartagena
1
0
W
01.04.26
Pri
Patriotas
Leones FC
1
0
W
26.03.26
Pri
Patriotas
Ind. Yumbo
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Patriotas
Popayan
3
3
D
16.03.26
Pri
Patriotas
Union Magdalena
1
2
L
12.03.26
Pri
Patriotas
Quindio
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pri
Patriotas
Tigres FC
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Patriotas
Real Soacha
1
0
W
20.02.26
Pri
Patriotas
Depor FC
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
Patriotas
Bogota FC
0
1
L
09.02.26
Pri
Patriotas
Orsomarso
0
0
D
04.02.26
Pri
Patriotas
Barranquilla
0
2
L
30.01.26
Pri
Patriotas
Real Santander
2
0
W
25.01.26
Pri
Patriotas
Internacional Palmira
1
3
L
23.11.25
Pri
Patriotas
Real Soacha
0
3
L
20.11.25
Pri
Patriotas
Real Cartagena
1
0
W
15.11.25
Pri
Patriotas
Popayan
1
0
W
12.11.25
Pri
Patriotas
Popayan
0
1
L
H2H: Real Santander vs Patriotas
30.01.26
H2H
Patriotas
Real Santander
2
0
L
26.09.25
H2H
Patriotas
Real Santander
2
0
L
19.04.25
H2H
Real Santander
Patriotas
1
1
D
05.08.23
H2H
Real Santander
Patriotas
2
1
W
20.02.23
H2H
Patriotas
Real Santander
1
0
L
04.08.21
H2H
Real Santander
Patriotas
3
2
W
28.07.21
H2H
Patriotas
Real Santander
1
0
L
Last matches: Real Santander
18.04.26
Pri
Real Santander
Bogota FC
1
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Real Santander
Envigado
1
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
Real Santander
Tigres FC
1
1
D
10.03.26
Pri
Real Santander
Popayan
1
1
D
05.03.26
Pri
Real Santander
Quindio
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Real Santander
Real Soacha
2
1
W
04.02.26
Pri
Real Santander
Depor FC
1
1
D
23.01.26
Pri
Real Santander
Real Cartagena
0
1
L
27.10.25
Pri
Real Santander
Huila
2
1
W
10.10.25
Pri
Real Santander
Cucuta
0
2
L
04.10.25
Pri
Real Santander
Quindio
0
1
L
22.09.25
Pri
Real Santander
Depor FC
4
0
W
29.08.25
Pri
Real Santander
Popayan
2
2
D
15.08.25
Pri
Real Santander
Real Cartagena
2
0
W
04.08.25
Pri
Real Santander
Bogota FC
4
0
W
19.07.25
Pri
Real Santander
Barranquilla
2
0
W
12.05.25
Pri
Real Santander
Internacional Palmira
0
3
L
19.04.25
Pri
Real Santander
Patriotas
1
1
D
06.04.25
Pri
Real Santander
Orsomarso
0
0
D
31.03.25
Pri
Real Santander
Cucuta
2
1
W
H2H at home: Real Santander
19.04.25
H2H
Real Santander
Patriotas
1
1
D
05.08.23
H2H
Real Santander
Patriotas
2
1
W
04.08.21
H2H
Real Santander
Patriotas
3
2
W
Last matches: Patriotas
18.04.26
Pri
Patriotas
Envigado
0
2
L
26.03.26
Pri
Patriotas
Ind. Yumbo
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Patriotas
Union Magdalena
1
2
L
06.03.26
Pri
Patriotas
Tigres FC
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Patriotas
Depor FC
1
1
D
09.02.26
Pri
Patriotas
Orsomarso
0
0
D
04.02.26
Pri
Patriotas
Barranquilla
0
2
L
25.01.26
Pri
Patriotas
Internacional Palmira
1
3
L
20.11.25
Pri
Patriotas
Real Cartagena
1
0
W
12.11.25
Pri
Patriotas
Popayan
0
1
L
02.11.25
Pri
Patriotas
Real Soacha
0
1
L
24.10.25
Pri
Patriotas
Depor FC
3
1
W
06.10.25
Pri
Patriotas
Tigres FC
3
2
W
20.09.25
Pri
Patriotas
Leones FC
1
0
W
08.09.25
Pri
Patriotas
Real Soacha
1
0
W
26.08.25
Pri
Patriotas
Internacional Palmira
0
1
L
13.08.25
Pri
Patriotas
Orsomarso
2
2
D
26.07.25
Pri
Patriotas
Barranquilla
1
3
L
13.07.25
Pri
Patriotas
Cucuta
0
2
L
22.06.25
Pri
Patriotas
Jaguares
0
3
L
H2H away: Patriotas
19.04.25
H2H
Real Santander
Patriotas
1
1
D
05.08.23
H2H
Real Santander
Patriotas
2
1
L
04.08.21
H2H
Real Santander
Patriotas
3
2
L

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 12 2 1 29:13 16 38
W W W W W
2 17 10 3 4 28:17 11 33
D W W W L
3 15 10 2 3 27:15 12 32
W L W W W
4 15 9 4 2 20:10 10 31
W W L D W
5 17 7 6 4 26:19 7 27
D L L L W
6 15 6 5 4 16:14 2 23
W W D W L
7 15 6 2 7 21:20 1 20
W L W L W
8 15 5 5 5 15:14 1 20
L W W L D
9 15 4 7 4 13:14 -1 19
D D L W L
10 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
D L L D W
11 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
L W W L D
12 15 2 7 6 15:20 -5 13
L D D D D
13 15 2 7 6 14:19 -5 13
D L D L D
14 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
D W L L L
15 15 1 6 8 12:23 -11 9
L L L D W
16 15 1 4 10 9:23 -14 7
L L L L L