SPAIN LA LIGA
21.04.2026 19:30
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Referee: J. Martinez
Real Madrid
Match Timeline
Alaves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
30'
K. Mbappe · Assist: A. Guler
Real Madrid
🟨
35'
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Real Madrid
🔄
45+2'
Eder Militao ↔ A. Rudiger
Real Madrid
50'
Vinicius Junior · Assist: F. Valverde
Real Madrid
🔄
58'
A. Guler ↔ F. Mastantuono
Real Madrid
🔄
58'
J. Bellingham ↔ B. Diaz
Real Madrid
🔄
58'
J. Guridi ↔ C. Alena
Alaves
🔄
58'
D. Suarez ↔ P. Ibanez
Alaves
🔄
63'
T. Alexander-Arnold ↔ D. Carvajal
Real Madrid
🔄
63'
A. Tchouameni ↔ E. Camavinga
Real Madrid
🔄
66'
L. Boye ↔ I. Diabate
Alaves
🔄
66'
Yusi ↔ Calebe
Alaves
🔄
75'
A. Blanco ↔ A. Guevara
Alaves
🟨
90'
Ángel Pérez
Alaves
90'
T. Martinez · Assist: A. Guevara
Alaves

Real Madrid vs Alaves Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 93.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
93.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
86.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Real Madrid Win 81.7%
Draw 0%
Alaves Win 18.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Madrid1.86
Alaves1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WWDLW
103 GF / 54 GA
Alaves Alaves
WLDWL
50 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
2.19
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
29
BTTS Yes
20
32
Over 2.5
18
6.94
Shots on Goal
3.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Madrid Real Madrid 47 matches
Alaves Alaves 36 matches
Real Madrid Statistic Alaves
32 Wins 12
4 Draws 9
11 Losses 15
103 Goals For 50
54 Goals Against 49
2.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
29 BTTS Yes 20
40 Over 1.5 26
32 Over 2.5 18
16 Over 3.5 10
15 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 10
6.94 Shots On Goal 3.97
18.09 Total Shots 11.53
6.43 Corners 4.81
58.1% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Real Madrid's more proactive style and Alaves's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Alaves. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Real Madrid arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 70 points compared to Alaves in 17 on 33, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Real Madrid Analysis

Real Madrid come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 70 points after 31 matches. They have recorded 22 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a 65:29 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on K. Mbappe (23 goals), Vinícius Júnior (11 goals), F. Valverde (5 goals), with creative support from A. Guler (8 assists), F. Valverde (7 assists), Vinícius Júnior (5 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, their record of 13 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with T. Courtois, Rodrygo, R. Asencio unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Alaves Analysis

Alaves sit 17 with 33 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 35:46, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Boye (11 goals), T. Martinez (8 goals), C. Vicente (5 goals), with creative support from C. Alena (4 assists), T. Martinez (3 assists), Victor Parada (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with F. Garces, C. Protesoni, A. Rebbach unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Real Madrid won 13 times, Alaves won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 37:10 from Real Madrid's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Real Madrid 4-4-2 / Alaves 4-4-2
Missing players: Real Madrid 3, Alaves 3
H2H summary: Real Madrid wins 13, draws 0, Alaves wins 2

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2