Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
81.7%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
93.5%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
86.7%
|
- |
Real Madrid
Alaves
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Real Madrid
47 matches
Alaves
36 matches
| Real Madrid | Statistic | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Wins | 12 |
| 4 | Draws | 9 |
| 11 | Losses | 15 |
| 103 | Goals For | 50 |
| 54 | Goals Against | 49 |
| 2.19 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.39 |
| 1.15 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.36 |
| 29 | BTTS Yes | 20 |
| 40 | Over 1.5 | 26 |
| 32 | Over 2.5 | 18 |
| 16 | Over 3.5 | 10 |
| 15 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 10 |
| 6.94 | Shots On Goal | 3.97 |
| 18.09 | Total Shots | 11.53 |
| 6.43 | Corners | 4.81 |
| 58.1% | Ball Possession | 48.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Real Madrid's more proactive style and Alaves's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Alaves. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Real Madrid arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 70 points compared to Alaves in 17 on 33, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Real Madrid come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 70 points after 31 matches. They have recorded 22 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a 65:29 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on K. Mbappe (23 goals), Vinícius Júnior (11 goals), F. Valverde (5 goals), with creative support from A. Guler (8 assists), F. Valverde (7 assists), Vinícius Júnior (5 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, their record of 13 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with T. Courtois, Rodrygo, R. Asencio unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Alaves sit 17 with 33 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 35:46, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Boye (11 goals), T. Martinez (8 goals), C. Vicente (5 goals), with creative support from C. Alena (4 assists), T. Martinez (3 assists), Victor Parada (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with F. Garces, C. Protesoni, A. Rebbach unavailable.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Real Madrid won 13 times, Alaves won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 37:10 from Real Madrid's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.
Real Madrid
8
5
9
7
7
7
Lineups
Real Madrid
Athletic Club
Real Madrid
Sevilla
Real Madrid
Oviedo
Real Madrid
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Espanyol
Real Madrid
Real Betis
Real Madrid
Bayern München
Real Madrid
Girona
Real Madrid
Bayern München
Real Madrid
Mallorca
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Elche
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Celta Vigo
Real Madrid
Getafe
Real Madrid
Benfica
Real Madrid
Osasuna
Real Madrid
Benfica
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
Oviedo
Alaves
Barcelona
Alaves
Elche
Alaves
Athletic Club
Alaves
Mallorca
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Osasuna
Alaves
Celta Vigo
Alaves
Villarreal
Alaves
Valencia
Alaves
Levante
Alaves
Girona
Alaves
Sevilla
Alaves
Getafe
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Espanyol
Alaves
Real Betis
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
Athletic Club
Real Madrid
Oviedo
Real Madrid
Girona
Real Madrid
Bayern München
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Elche
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Getafe
Real Madrid
Benfica
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
Monaco
Real Madrid
Levante
Real Madrid
Real Betis
Real Madrid
Sevilla
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Celta Vigo
Real Madrid
Valencia
Real Madrid
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Juventus
Alaves
Oviedo
Alaves
Elche
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Celta Vigo
Alaves
Valencia
Alaves
Levante
Alaves
Sevilla
Alaves
Espanyol
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Villarreal
Alaves
Osasuna
Alaves
Portugalete
Alaves
Barcelona
Alaves
Girona
Alaves
Deportivo Getxo
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
Mallorca
Alaves
Getafe
Alaves
Athletic Club
Alaves
Real Betis
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95:36 | 59 | 94 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 2 |
Real Madrid
Home
|
38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 77:35 | 42 | 86 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
| 3 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72:46 | 26 | 72 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 62:44 | 18 | 69 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 59:48 | 11 | 60 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53:48 | 5 | 54 |
W
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 32:38 | -6 | 51 |
W
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 8 | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 41:44 | -3 | 50 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46:55 | -9 | 49 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 59:61 | -2 | 46 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 43:55 | -12 | 46 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 43:58 | -15 | 45 |
L
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 46:60 | -14 | 43 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 14 |
Alaves
Away
|
38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 44:56 | -12 | 43 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
| 15 | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 49:57 | -8 | 43 |
D
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:61 | -14 | 42 |
L
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44:50 | -6 | 42 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:57 | -10 | 42 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 19 | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 39:55 | -16 | 41 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 26:60 | -34 | 29 |
L
L
L
D
L
|