ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
--.--.---- --:--
Select Car Leasing Stadium
Referee: M. Corlett
Reading
Match Timeline
Cardiff
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
40'
R. Colwill · Assist: R. Wintle
Cardiff
🟨
41'
Gabriel Osho
Cardiff
55'
O. Kellyman · Assist: R. Wintle
Cardiff
🟨
63'
Daniel Kyerewaa
Reading
🟨
63'
Ryan Wintle
Cardiff
🟨
64'
Paudie O’Connor
Reading
🔄
67'
A. Robertson ↔ D. Turnbull
Cardiff
🟨
69'
Finley Burns
Reading
🟨
72'
Dylan Lawlor
Cardiff
73'
D. Kyerewaa
Reading
🔄
74'
P. Lane ↔ J. Marriott
Reading
🔄
82'
D. Lawlor ↔ W. Fish
Cardiff
🔄
82'
C. Willock ↔ Y. Salech
Cardiff
🔄
82'
R. Colwill ↔ J. Colwill
Cardiff
86'
P. Ng · Assist: O. Kellyman
Cardiff
🔄
88'
R. Nyambe ↔ K. Abrefa
Reading
🔄
88'
H. Roberts ↔ M. Ritchie
Reading
🔄
88'
A. Rinomhota ↔ L. Fraser
Reading
🟨
90+10'
William Fish
Cardiff
🔄
90'
O. Tanner ↔ C. Robinson
Cardiff

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
58.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Reading Win 27.1%
Draw 7.8%
Cardiff Win 65.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Reading1.28
Cardiff1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Reading Reading
WWDLW
64 GF / 58 GA
Cardiff Cardiff
WLDWL
77 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.79
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.02
30
BTTS Yes
22
22
Over 2.5
22
3.68
Shots on Goal
5.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Reading Reading 44 matches
Cardiff Cardiff 43 matches
Reading Statistic Cardiff
16 Wins 24
14 Draws 10
14 Losses 9
64 Goals For 77
58 Goals Against 44
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.79
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.02
30 BTTS Yes 22
37 Over 1.5 33
22 Over 2.5 22
12 Over 3.5 14
8 Clean Sheets 16
6 Failed To Score 7
3.68 Shots On Goal 5.07
10.66 Total Shots 15.14
3.8 Corners 6.07
49.1% Ball Possession 61.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cardiff. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Reading have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Cardiff carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 82 points while Reading sit 10 on 62, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Reading expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Cardiff in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cardiff having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Reading Analysis

With 62 points from 43 games and a place of 10, Reading still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 16 wins, 14 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 62:55, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Marriott (16 goals), L. Wing (11 goals), Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan (9 goals), with creative support from L. Wing (11 assists), Matt Ritchie (6 assists), Kami Doyle (5 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 10 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Cardiff Analysis

Cardiff come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 82 points from 42 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 24 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses, while the 76:42 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Y. Salech (13 goals), C. Willock (8 goals), O. Kellyman (8 goals), with creative support from Ollie Tanner (11 assists), R. Kpakio (6 assists), C. Willock (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Reading won 4 times, Cardiff won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:22 from Reading's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: Reading 3-4-2-1 / Cardiff 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Reading wins 4, draws 6, Cardiff wins 5
Stats
Reading Reading
Cardiff Cardiff
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
7 Corner Kicks 9
6 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 2
37% Ball Possession 63%
15 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Goal 9
5 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 3
11 Shots insidebox 7
4 Shots outsidebox 8
6 Goalkeeper Saves 5
258 Total passes 441
174 Passes accurate 368
2.36 expected_goals 1.35
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Reading
Formation
Cardiff
J. Pereira
J. Pereira
F. Burns
F. Burns
P. O'Connor
P. O'Connor
J. R. Dorsett A.
J. R. Dorsett A.
R. Nyambe
R. Nyambe
L. Wing
L. Wing
A. Rinomhota
A. Rinomhota
H. Roberts
H. Roberts
D. Kyerewaa
D. Kyerewaa
P. Lane
P. Lane
K. Ehibhatiomhan
K. Ehibhatiomhan
N. Trott
N. Trott
P. Ng
P. Ng
G. Osho
G. Osho
D. Lawlor
D. Lawlor
J. Bagan
J. Bagan
R. Wintle
🎯
R. Wintle
A. Robertson
A. Robertson
O. Tanner
O. Tanner
R. Colwill
R. Colwill
C. Willock
C. Willock
O. Kellyman
🎯
O. Kellyman
Reading 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
J. Pereira
G
12
F. Burns
🟨 69'
D
15
P. O'Connor
🟨 64'
D
3
J. R. Dorsett A.
D
24
R. Nyambe
↓ 88'
M
10
L. Wing
M
18
A. Rinomhota
↓ 88'
M
5
H. Roberts
↓ 88'
M
11
D. Kyerewaa
⚽ 73' 🟨 63'
F
32
P. Lane
↓ 74'
F
9
K. Ehibhatiomhan
F
Substitutes
31
T. Norcott
G
7
J. Marriott
↑ 74'
F
22
M. Stickland
D
2
K. Abrefa
↑ 88'
D
57
S. Patton
F
30
M. Ritchie
↑ 88'
M
6
L. Fraser
↑ 88'
M
Cardiff 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
N. Trott
G
38
P. Ng
⚽ 86'
D
4
G. Osho
🟨 41'
D
48
D. Lawlor
↓ 82' 🟨 72'
D
3
J. Bagan
D
6
R. Wintle
🎯 40' 🎯 55' 🟨 63'
M
18
A. Robertson
↓ 67'
M
11
O. Tanner
↓ 90'
M
10
R. Colwill
⚽ 40' ↓ 82'
M
16
C. Willock
↓ 82'
M
8
O. Kellyman
⚽ 55' 🎯 86'
F
Substitutes
41
M. Turner
G
14
D. Turnbull
↑ 67'
M
2
W. Fish
↑ 82' 🟨 90+10'
D
22
Y. Salech
↑ 82'
F
23
C. Scanlon
D
47
C. Robinson
↑ 90'
F
27
J. Colwill
↑ 82'
M
Last matches: Reading
01.08.26
Fri
Reading
Charlton
3
0
W
31.07.26
Fri
Reading
Crawley Town
1
0
W
28.07.26
Fri
Reading
Newport County
4
0
W
25.07.26
Fri
Reading
Woking
2
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Reading
Getafe
0
1
L
11.07.26
Fri
Reading
Farnborough
2
1
W
02.05.26
Lea
Reading
Blackpool
0
1
L
25.04.26
Lea
Reading
Rotherham
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lea
Reading
Doncaster
0
1
L
06.04.26
Lea
Reading
Lincoln
1
2
L
03.04.26
Lea
Reading
Huddersfield
1
1
D
28.03.26
Lea
Reading
Wigan
3
0
W
21.03.26
Lea
Reading
Stevenage
0
1
L
17.03.26
Lea
Reading
Burton Albion
2
1
W
14.03.26
Lea
Reading
Plymouth
2
2
D
10.03.26
Lea
Reading
Mansfield Town
0
1
L
07.03.26
Lea
Reading
Luton
3
2
W
28.02.26
Lea
Reading
Bradford
2
1
W
21.02.26
Lea
Reading
Port Vale
1
1
D
17.02.26
Lea
Reading
Bolton
1
1
D
Last matches: Cardiff
01.08.26
Fri
Cardiff
AS Roma
4
1
W
25.07.26
Fri
Cardiff
Forest Green
5
1
W
14.07.26
Fri
Cardiff
Cork City
6
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Cardiff
FC Midtjylland
0
6
L
02.05.26
Lea
Cardiff
Mansfield Town
4
5
L
25.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Northampton
5
1
W
22.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Port Vale
1
0
W
14.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Huddersfield
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Bolton
2
0
W
06.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Peterborough
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Blackpool
0
0
D
17.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Wycombe
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Exeter City
4
0
W
10.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Barnsley
1
1
D
07.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Lincoln
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Doncaster
4
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Plymouth
2
5
L
17.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
AFC Wimbledon
4
1
W
14.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Luton
3
1
W
07.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Rotherham
3
0
W
H2H: Reading vs Cardiff
18.04.26
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
3
L
18.10.25
H2H
Cardiff
Reading
2
1
L
31.07.24
H2H
Cardiff
Reading
2
1
L
17.02.23
H2H
Cardiff
Reading
1
0
L
06.08.22
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
2
1
W
09.04.22
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
2
L
02.10.21
H2H
Cardiff
Reading
0
1
W
16.04.21
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
1
D
26.09.20
H2H
Cardiff
Reading
1
2
W
04.02.20
H2H
Cardiff
Reading
5
5
D
31.01.20
H2H
Cardiff
Reading
1
1
D
25.01.20
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
1
D
18.08.19
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
3
0
W
06.05.18
H2H
Cardiff
Reading
0
0
D
11.12.17
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
2
2
D
Last matches: Reading
01.08.26
Fri
Reading
Charlton
3
0
W
02.05.26
Lea
Reading
Blackpool
0
1
L
06.04.26
Lea
Reading
Lincoln
1
2
L
28.03.26
Lea
Reading
Wigan
3
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Reading
Plymouth
2
2
D
28.02.26
Lea
Reading
Bradford
2
1
W
17.02.26
Lea
Reading
Bolton
1
1
D
14.02.26
Lea
Reading
Wycombe
3
2
W
27.01.26
Lea
Reading
Exeter City
2
2
D
24.01.26
Lea
Reading
Barnsley
2
2
D
04.01.26
Lea
Reading
Stockport County
1
0
W
01.01.26
Lea
Reading
Burton Albion
2
0
W
18.12.25
Lea
Reading
Luton
3
2
W
09.12.25
Lea
Reading
Peterborough
1
2
L
22.11.25
Lea
Reading
Rotherham
1
1
D
06.11.25
Lea
Reading
Stevenage
1
0
W
01.11.25
FA
Reading
Carlisle
2
3
L
25.10.25
Lea
Reading
Doncaster
1
1
D
21.10.25
Lea
Reading
Northampton
1
0
W
04.10.25
Lea
Reading
Mansfield Town
1
1
D
H2H at home: Reading
18.04.26
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
3
L
06.08.22
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
2
1
W
09.04.22
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
2
L
16.04.21
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
1
D
25.01.20
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
1
D
18.08.19
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
3
0
W
11.12.17
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
2
2
D
Last matches: Cardiff
25.07.26
Fri
Cardiff
Forest Green
5
1
W
14.07.26
Fri
Cardiff
Cork City
6
1
W
02.05.26
Lea
Cardiff
Mansfield Town
4
5
L
14.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Huddersfield
1
1
D
06.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Peterborough
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Exeter City
4
0
W
10.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Barnsley
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Doncaster
4
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Plymouth
2
5
L
07.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Rotherham
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Burton Albion
2
2
D
17.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Bradford
2
1
W
10.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Leyton Orient
1
1
D
01.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Wycombe
1
1
D
20.12.25
Lea
Cardiff
Lincoln
1
2
L
09.12.25
Lea
Cardiff
Stevenage
1
0
W
22.11.25
Lea
Cardiff
Northampton
3
1
W
08.11.25
Lea
Cardiff
Blackpool
1
3
L
01.11.25
FA
Cardiff
Peterborough
0
1
L
25.10.25
Lea
Cardiff
Bolton
0
1
L
H2H away: Cardiff
18.04.26
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
3
W
06.08.22
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
2
1
L
09.04.22
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
2
W
16.04.21
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
1
D
25.01.20
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
1
1
D
18.08.19
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
3
0
L
11.12.17
H2H
Reading
Cardiff
2
2
D

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two