POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
13.05.2026 18:30
zondacrypto Arena
Referee: S. Marciniak
Raków Częstochowa
Match Timeline
Jagiellonia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
10'
L. Diaby-Fadiga ↔ T. Pienko
Raków Częstochowa
🟨
31'
Norbert Wojtuszek
Jagiellonia
⚽
34'
Y. Kobayashi · Assist: S. Lozano
Jagiellonia
🟨
50'
Oskar Repka
Raków Częstochowa
🟨
52'
Bernardo Vital
Jagiellonia
🔄
55'
B. Vital ↔ A. Konstantopoulos
Jagiellonia
🔄
55'
S. Lozano ↔ B. Mazurek
Jagiellonia
🟨
65'
Apostolos Konstantopoulos
Jagiellonia
🔄
67'
P. Makuch ↔ L. Rocha
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
67'
M. Ameyaw ↔ I. Lopez
Raków Częstochowa
🟨
74'
Taras Romanczuk
Jagiellonia
🔄
79'
M. Bulat ↔ V. Kochergin
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
80'
J. Imaz ↔ M. Nahuel
Jagiellonia
🔄
80'
A. Pozo ↔ E. Kozlowski
Jagiellonia
⚽
83'
K. Szmyt · Assist: M. Nahuel
Jagiellonia
🔄
89'
K. Szmyt ↔ B. Wdowik
Jagiellonia

Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 80.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
80.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Raków Częstochowa Win 46.6%
Draw 17.3%
Jagiellonia Win 36.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Raków Częstochowa1.37
Jagiellonia1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
WWDLW
67 GF / 46 GA
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
WLDWL
72 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.49
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1.02
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
24
BTTS Yes
29
20
Over 2.5
28
4.67
Shots on Goal
4.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa 45 matches
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 45 matches
Raków Częstochowa Statistic Jagiellonia
23 Wins 20
9 Draws 15
13 Losses 10
67 Goals For 72
46 Goals Against 53
1.49 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1.02 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
24 BTTS Yes 29
32 Over 1.5 36
20 Over 2.5 28
11 Over 3.5 13
16 Clean Sheets 13
8 Failed To Score 8
4.67 Shots On Goal 4.73
12.96 Total Shots 12.93
4.11 Corners 4.62
50.4% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Raków Częstochowa expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Jagiellonia in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Jagiellonia having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Jagiellonia. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Raków Częstochowa Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 49 points from 31 games, Raków Częstochowa bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 14 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, with a 45:37 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on J. Brunes (15 goals), L. Rocha (10 goals), L. Diaby-Fadiga (7 goals), with creative support from M. Ameyaw (5 assists), L. Diaby-Fadiga (4 assists), Oskar Repka (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Jagiellonia Analysis

Placed 2 with 49 points from 31 outings, Jagiellonia continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses, while the 51:39 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Afimico Pululu (13 goals), Jesús Imaz (13 goals), A. Pozo (3 goals), with creative support from Jesús Imaz (6 assists), Afimico Pululu (5 assists), A. Pozo (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Raków Częstochowa won 7 times, Jagiellonia won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:20 from Raków Częstochowa's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.21 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.7%)
Predicted formations: Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3 / Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Raków Częstochowa wins 7, draws 3, Jagiellonia wins 4

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation