URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Osvaldo Roberto
Referee: E. Ostojich
Racing Montevideo
Match Timeline
Penarol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
M. Olivera
Penarol
🟨
25'
N. Fernandez
Penarol
31'
A. Vazquez
Racing Montevideo
🟨
37'
L. Umpierrez
Penarol
🔄
42'
Jesus Trindade ↔ C. Jaime
Penarol
🔄
46'
M. Olivera ↔ F. Romero
Penarol
🟨
58'
E. Bentancor
Racing Montevideo
🟨
59'
R. Dudok
Racing Montevideo
🔄
59'
E. Bentancor ↔ D. Cheuquepal
Racing Montevideo
🔄
59'
R. Dudok ↔ J. Varela
Racing Montevideo
🔄
67'
B. Barboza ↔ L. Angulo
Penarol
🔄
67'
E. Darias ↔ F. Batista
Penarol
🟨
73'
D. Cheuquepal
Racing Montevideo
74'
A. Hernandez
Penarol
🔄
77'
A. Hernandez ↔ G. Togni
Penarol
🔄
79'
T. Habib ↔ I. Manzur
Racing Montevideo
🔄
87'
J. Bosca ↔ L. Loprete
Racing Montevideo
🟨
90+1'
M. Ferreira
Racing Montevideo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.4%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 88%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.4%
-
BTTS No
76.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
88%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Racing Montevideo Win 39.2%
Draw 18.6%
Penarol Win 42.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Racing Montevideo1.21
Penarol1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo
WWDLW
25 GF / 15 GA
Penarol Penarol
WLDWL
32 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.28
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
10
BTTS Yes
14
6
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 19 matches
Penarol Penarol 25 matches
Racing Montevideo Statistic Penarol
10 Wins 11
7 Draws 6
2 Losses 8
25 Goals For 32
15 Goals Against 26
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
10 BTTS Yes 14
12 Over 1.5 19
6 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 4
0 Total Shots 13.33
0 Corners 4
0% Ball Possession 42.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Penarol. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Racing Montevideo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Penarol in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Penarol having the stronger overall control. Penarol look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Racing Montevideo Analysis

Placed 2 with 37 points from 19 outings, Racing Montevideo continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, while the 25:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on Tomas Habib (4 goals), Sebastián da Silva (3 goals), A. Vazquez (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Penarol Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 36 points from 19 games, Penarol bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 11 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a 28:18 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on M. Arezo (7 goals), L. Angulo (4 goals), A. Hernandez (3 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Racing Montevideo won 2 times, Penarol won 6 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:25 from Racing Montevideo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.4%)
Predicted formations: Racing Montevideo 4-4-2 / Penarol 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Racing Montevideo wins 2, draws 7, Penarol wins 6

Lineups

Racing Montevideo
Formation
Penarol
F. Varese
F. Varese
G. Cotugno
G. Cotugno
F. Alvarez
F. Alvarez
E. Bentancor
E. Bentancor
M. Ferreira
M. Ferreira
E. Da Silva
E. Da Silva
J. Bosca
J. Bosca
A. Vazquez
A. Vazquez
R. Dudok
R. Dudok
T. Habib
T. Habib
S. Da Silva
S. Da Silva
W. Aguerre
W. Aguerre
B. Barboza
B. Barboza
M. Lemos
M. Lemos
L. Ferreira
L. Ferreira
M. Olivera
M. Olivera
Jesus Trindade
Jesus Trindade
N. Fernandez
N. Fernandez
J. Cabrera
J. Cabrera
E. Darias
E. Darias
L. Umpierrez
L. Umpierrez
A. Hernandez
A. Hernandez
Racing Montevideo 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
F. Varese
4
G. Cotugno
13
F. Alvarez
20
E. Bentancor
↓ 59' 🟨 58'
17
M. Ferreira
🟨 90+1'
10
E. Da Silva
5
J. Bosca
↓ 87'
39
A. Vazquez
⚽ 31'
19
R. Dudok
↓ 59' 🟨 59'
18
T. Habib
↓ 79'
9
S. Da Silva
Substitutes
1
F. Machado
3
Brazionis
15
D. Cheuquepal
↑ 59' 🟨 73'
7
J. Varela
↑ 59'
8
L. Loprete
↑ 87'
11
F. Suarez
22
T. Fernandez
81
I. Manzur
↑ 79'
Penarol 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
29
W. Aguerre
36
B. Barboza
↓ 67'
3
M. Lemos
6
L. Ferreira
15
M. Olivera
↓ 46' 🟨 19'
21
Jesus Trindade
↓ 42'
8
N. Fernandez
🟨 25'
7
J. Cabrera
13
E. Darias
↓ 67'
32
L. Umpierrez
🟨 37'
99
A. Hernandez
⚽ 74' ↓ 77'
Substitutes
1
S. Britos
4
F. Romero
↑ 46'
27
Lucas Hernandez
28
I. Alegre
16
T. Olase
18
G. Barbas
23
G. Togni
↑ 77'
77
L. Angulo
↑ 67'
9
F. Batista
↑ 67'
11
C. Jaime
↑ 42'
Last matches: Racing Montevideo
26.07.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
L
06.06.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
0
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
2
1
W
29.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
2
1
W
26.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Albion FC
3
1
W
21.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
4
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
Last matches: Penarol
18.07.26
Pri
Penarol
Boston River
3
0
W
07.06.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro
1
0
W
01.06.26
Pri
Penarol
Central Espanol
0
1
L
28.05.26
CON
Penarol
Santa Fe
0
1
L
24.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
22.05.26
CON
Penarol
Corinthians
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro Largo
3
2
W
07.05.26
CON
Penarol
Platense
1
1
D
04.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
01.05.26
CON
Penarol
Corinthians
0
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Wanderers
0
1
L
20.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Juventud
2
2
D
17.04.26
CON
Penarol
Platense
1
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
10.04.26
CON
Penarol
Santa Fe
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Progreso
2
0
W
29.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Boston River
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro
3
1
W
H2H: Racing Montevideo vs Penarol
12.07.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
1
D
29.03.26
H2H
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1
2
W
20.01.26
H2H
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1
0
L
31.08.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
4
L
09.03.25
H2H
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
0
2
W
30.09.24
H2H
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
16.06.24
H2H
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
15.03.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
2
L
02.12.23
H2H
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
08.05.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
0
2
L
17.10.19
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
3
3
D
23.03.19
H2H
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
2
2
D
21.07.18
H2H
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
04.02.18
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
0
2
L
03.12.17
H2H
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
4
0
L
Last matches: Racing Montevideo
30.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
2
1
W
26.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
4
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
02.11.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
1
2
L
20.10.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
0
0
D
05.10.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Plaza Colonia
0
1
L
29.09.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
0
0
D
13.09.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
4
L
17.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
03.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
1
0
W
18.09.22
Seg
Racing Montevideo
Miramar
0
2
L
02.09.22
Seg
Racing Montevideo
SUD America
4
2
W
H2H at home: Racing Montevideo
12.07.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
1
D
31.08.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
4
L
15.03.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
2
L
08.05.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
0
2
L
17.10.19
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
3
3
D
04.02.18
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
0
2
L
Last matches: Penarol
07.06.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro Largo
3
2
W
07.05.26
CON
Penarol
Platense
1
1
D
01.05.26
CON
Penarol
Corinthians
0
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Wanderers
0
1
L
10.04.26
CON
Penarol
Santa Fe
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Progreso
2
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Boston River
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Albion FC
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Club Nacional
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Penarol
Central Espanol
1
2
L
30.11.25
Pri
Penarol
Club Nacional
0
1
L
16.11.25
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
09.11.25
Pri
Penarol
Atletico Torque
2
0
W
25.10.25
Pri
Penarol
Cerro
0
2
L
11.10.25
Pri
Penarol
Miramar
2
2
D
27.09.25
Pri
Penarol
Cerro Largo
3
1
W
13.09.25
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
2
2
D
31.08.25
Pri
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
4
1
W
H2H away: Penarol
12.07.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
1
D
31.08.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
4
W
15.03.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
2
W
08.05.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
0
2
W
17.10.19
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
3
3
D
04.02.18
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
0
2
W

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D D D D
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
L D W W D
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
L D W L L
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D W L W
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
L D D W L
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W W L W W
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
L D W L W
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D D D L
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
W L D W D
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W W D W D
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L D D D L
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
W D D W W
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L D D L L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W L D L L
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
W L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
W W L L W