Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
81.4%
|
- | |
| BTTS | No |
76.3%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
88%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-1 |
-
|
- |
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Racing Montevideo
19 matches
Penarol
25 matches
| Racing Montevideo | Statistic | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wins | 11 |
| 7 | Draws | 6 |
| 2 | Losses | 8 |
| 25 | Goals For | 32 |
| 15 | Goals Against | 26 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.28 |
| 0.79 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.04 |
| 10 | BTTS Yes | 14 |
| 12 | Over 1.5 | 19 |
| 6 | Over 2.5 | 9 |
| 3 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 6 |
| 3 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 0 | Shots On Goal | 4 |
| 0 | Total Shots | 13.33 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 0% | Ball Possession | 42.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Penarol. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Racing Montevideo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Penarol in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Penarol having the stronger overall control. Penarol look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.
Placed 2 with 37 points from 19 outings, Racing Montevideo continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, while the 25:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on Tomas Habib (4 goals), Sebastián da Silva (3 goals), A. Vazquez (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Operating from 3 place with 36 points from 19 games, Penarol bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 11 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a 28:18 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on M. Arezo (7 goals), L. Angulo (4 goals), A. Hernandez (3 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Racing Montevideo won 2 times, Penarol won 6 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:25 from Racing Montevideo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.
Lineups
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
Albion FC
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Juventud
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Progreso
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
Plaza Colonia
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
Miramar
Racing Montevideo
SUD America
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Progreso
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Albion FC
Penarol
Club Nacional
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Club Nacional
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Atletico Torque
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Miramar
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Racing Montevideo
Home
|
15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | 9 | 31 |
L
D
D
D
D
|
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | 8 | 29 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | 10 | 28 |
L
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 4 |
Penarol
Away
|
15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | 7 | 27 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
| 5 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | 1 | 24 |
L
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 6 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | 6 | 23 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | 5 | 22 |
L
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | 2 | 21 |
L
D
D
D
L
|
|
| 9 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | 2 | 20 |
W
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 10 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 |
W
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 |
L
D
D
D
L
|
|
| 12 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 13 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 |
W
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 15 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 16 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 |
W
W
L
L
W
|