Login Register
18.10.2026 17:45
Estadio Juan Domingo Perón
Referee: Facundo Tello
Racing Club
Match Timeline
Independiente
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Juan Barinaga
Racing Club
🟨
17'
Matías Zaracho
Racing Club
⚽
29'
Matías Zaracho
Racing Club
🔄
45'
Luciano Cabral ↔ Matías Abaldo
Independiente
🟨
49'
Mateo Ezequiel Martínez
Racing Club
🟨
64'
Gonzalo Escudero
Racing Club
⚽
65'
Maximiliano Meza
Independiente
🔄
72'
Tomás Conechny ↔ Duván Vergara
Racing Club
🔄
72'
Matías Zaracho ↔ Diego Ulises·Ortegoza
Racing Club
🔄
73'
Matías Kranevitter ↔ Leonel Pérez
Racing Club
🔄
76'
Juan Barinaga ↔ Ezequiel Cannavo
Racing Club
🔄
78'
Chimy Ávila ↔ Iván Morales
Independiente
🔄
78'
Santiago Arias ↔ Leonardo Godoy
Independiente
🔄
81'
Lautaro Diaz ↔ Elías David Torres
Racing Club
🔄
86'
Nahuel Banegas ↔ Facundo Zabala
Independiente
🟨
87'
Iván Morales
Independiente
🔄
89'
Maximiliano Meza ↔ Lautaro Millán
Independiente
🟨
90+2'
Leonardo Godoy
Independiente
🟨
90+3'
Leonel Pérez
Racing Club

Racing Club vs Independiente Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 47%
Odds 3.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 2.52
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
47%
3.57 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
2.52 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.46 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Racing Club Win 37.2%
Draw 15.7%
Independiente Win 47%
Expected Goals (xG)
Racing Club1.22
Independiente1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Racing Club Racing Club
WWDLW
40 GF / 40 GA
Independiente Independiente
WLDWL
42 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
20
BTTS Yes
17
17
Over 2.5
13
3.8
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Racing Club Racing Club 34 matches
Independiente Independiente 32 matches
Racing Club Statistic Independiente
12 Wins 13
8 Draws 9
14 Losses 10
40 Goals For 42
40 Goals Against 41
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
20 BTTS Yes 17
25 Over 1.5 24
17 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 10
8 Failed To Score 7
3.8 Shots On Goal 3.86
12.8 Total Shots 12.72
4.5 Corners 5.59
56.9% Ball Possession 52.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Racing Club expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Independiente in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independiente. Racing Club have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Racing Club Analysis

With 21 points from 16 games and a place of 8, Racing Club still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 17:15, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Matías Zaracho (3 goals), A. Martínez (2 goals), M. Miljevic (2 goals), with creative support from S. Solari (2 assists), Matías Zaracho (1 assists), A. Martínez (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Independiente Analysis

Placed 5 with 24 points from 16 outings, Independiente continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, while the 24:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Gabriel Ávalos (4 goals), S. Montiel (3 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (3 goals), with creative support from S. Montiel (4 assists), M. Abaldo (3 assists), Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Racing Club won 6 times, Independiente won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:11 from Racing Club's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.3%)
Predicted formations: Racing Club 5-3-2 / Independiente 4-3-3
H2H summary: Racing Club wins 6, draws 4, Independiente wins 5

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
D L D W W
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
W D W L W
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
W D W L D
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W W D W W
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L W W W D
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
W D D D D
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
L L W W W
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
D L W W L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
W W L D D
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
D L L L L
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
D W L D W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
L W D D D
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
L D L L L
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L L L W L
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
W L L L L
Knockout Phase