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ARGENTINA › PRIMERA NACIONAL
24.10.2026 19:00
Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes

Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 53.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
53.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Quilmes Win 55.8%
Draw 10.3%
San Martin Tucuman Win 33.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Quilmes0.93
San Martin Tucuman0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Quilmes Quilmes
WWDLW
30 GF / 29 GA
San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman
WLDWL
39 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1.08
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1
7
BTTS Yes
16
10
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Quilmes Quilmes 34 matches
San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman 36 matches
Quilmes Statistic San Martin Tucuman
10 Wins 11
9 Draws 15
15 Losses 10
30 Goals For 39
29 Goals Against 36
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1
7 BTTS Yes 16
14 Over 1.5 25
10 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 5
14 Clean Sheets 13
19 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring San Martin Tucuman. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward San Martin Tucuman having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Quilmes Analysis

Quilmes sit 14 with 39 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 30:28, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

San Martin Tucuman Analysis

San Martin Tucuman are currently 10 in the standings with 43 points from 33 matches. The record of 10 wins, 13 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 35:33 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Quilmes won 2 times, San Martin Tucuman won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:13 from Quilmes's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.18 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.8%)
H2H summary: Quilmes wins 2, draws 6, San Martin Tucuman wins 3

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 14 4 33:15 18 62
W D D W D
2 34 16 12 6 41:28 13 60
D W W L W
3 34 16 10 8 51:42 9 58
W D L D D
4 34 18 4 12 40:33 7 58
L W W W D
5 34 14 10 10 37:31 6 52
W D L W L
6 34 14 9 11 40:29 11 51
L W D L W
7 34 14 8 12 35:31 4 50
W D W W L
8 34 13 9 12 40:33 7 48
L D W W D
9 34 12 11 11 36:34 2 47
D D L L W
10 34 11 13 10 38:35 3 46
W L W D L
11 34 12 9 13 28:34 -6 45
W L L L W
12 34 11 8 15 31:41 -10 41
L W W L L
13 34 10 10 14 27:38 -11 40
L W D L W
14 34 10 9 15 30:29 1 39
L L D W L
15 34 7 16 11 29:33 -4 37
L W L W D
16 34 10 6 18 26:35 -9 36
W L W L W
17 34 9 9 16 24:33 -9 36
L L L W D
18 34 6 8 20 25:57 -32 26
W L L L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation