ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Loftus Road
Referee: L. Doughty
QPR
Match Timeline
Swansea
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
Ronald
Swansea
🟨
23'
Kieran Morgan
QPR
🔄
29'
K. Poku ↔ P. Smyth
QPR
🟨
55'
Kealey Adamson
QPR
🟨
60'
Rhys Norrington-Davies
QPR
🔄
60'
R. Kolli ↔ I. Chair
QPR
🔄
61'
I. Hayden ↔ N. Madsen
QPR
🔄
61'
S. Cook ↔ T. Smith
QPR
🔄
62'
R. Burrell ↔ R. Kone
QPR
🔄
66'
G. Franco ↔ J. Eom
Swansea
🔄
66'
L. Walta ↔ M. Yalcouye
Swansea
🔄
67'
A. Idah ↔ Z. Vipotnik
Swansea
🔄
73'
S. Parker ↔ J. Ward
Swansea
🔄
76'
M. Widell ↔ L. Cullen
Swansea
80'
Z. Vipotnik
Swansea
🟨
90+2'
Ronald
Swansea
90'
R. Norrington-Davies
QPR

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
75.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Probability Distribution
QPR Win 45.2%
Draw 11.2%
Swansea Win 43.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
QPR1.32
Swansea1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
QPR QPR
WWDLW
59 GF / 67 GA
Swansea Swansea
WLDWL
52 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.34
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
28
BTTS Yes
23
27
Over 2.5
21
3.86
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

QPR QPR 44 matches
Swansea Swansea 44 matches
QPR Statistic Swansea
16 Wins 16
10 Draws 10
18 Losses 18
59 Goals For 52
67 Goals Against 57
1.34 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
28 BTTS Yes 23
33 Over 1.5 33
27 Over 2.5 21
16 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 12
12 Failed To Score 10
3.86 Shots On Goal 3.75
12.41 Total Shots 12.36
4.75 Corners 4.66
45.3% Ball Possession 54.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Swansea. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with QPR expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Swansea in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Swansea having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

QPR Analysis

QPR are currently 11 in the standings with 58 points from 43 matches. The record of 16 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats, together with a 58:63 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through R. Burrell (10 goals), R. Kone (9 goals), P. Smyth (6 goals), with creative support from N. Madsen (6 assists), B. Whiteman (5 assists), H. Vale (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with K. Dembele, Z. Larkeche, J. Dunne unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Swansea Analysis

With 57 points from 43 games and a place of 15, Swansea still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 16 wins, 9 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 50:54, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Z. Vipotnik (21 goals), Liam Cullen (6 goals), A. Idah (4 goals), with creative support from Josh Tymon (9 assists), Ronald (5 assists), Gonçalo Franco (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Z. Inoussa, J. Key, E. Galbraith unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, QPR won 5 times, Swansea won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:16 from QPR's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
Predicted formations: QPR 4-4-2 / Swansea 4-2-3-1
Missing players: QPR 4, Swansea 4
H2H summary: QPR wins 5, draws 4, Swansea wins 6
Stats
QPR QPR
Swansea Swansea
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
11
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
4
4 Corner Kicks 5
11 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Goal 11
4 Shots off Goal 2
3 Blocked Shots 4
7 Shots insidebox 7
5 Shots outsidebox 10
8 Goalkeeper Saves 4
523 Total passes 560
436 Passes accurate 474
1.55 expected_goals 2.61
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

QPR
Formation
Swansea
J. Walsh
J. Walsh
K. Adamson
K. Adamson
R. Edwards
R. Edwards
S. Cook
S. Cook
R. Norrington-Davies
R. Norrington-Davies
H. Vale
H. Vale
I. Hayden
I. Hayden
K. Morgan
K. Morgan
K. Poku
K. Poku
R. Kolli
R. Kolli
R. Burrell
R. Burrell
L. Vigouroux
L. Vigouroux
S. Parker
S. Parker
B. Cabango
B. Cabango
C. Burgess
C. Burgess
J. Tymon
J. Tymon
J. Fulton
J. Fulton
L. Walta
L. Walta
Ronald
Ronald
G. Franco
G. Franco
M. Widell
M. Widell
A. Idah
A. Idah
QPR 4-4-2
Starting XI
13
J. Walsh
G
2
K. Adamson
🟨 55'
D
37
R. Edwards
D
5
S. Cook
↓ 61'
D
18
R. Norrington-Davies
⚽ 90' 🟨 60'
D
20
H. Vale
M
15
I. Hayden
↓ 61'
M
21
K. Morgan
🟨 23'
M
17
K. Poku
↓ 29'
M
26
R. Kolli
↓ 60'
F
16
R. Burrell
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
29
B. Hamer
G
10
I. Chair
↑ 60'
M
40
J. Varane
M
27
A. S. Mbengue
D
28
Esquerdinha
D
11
P. Smyth
↑ 29'
F
24
N. Madsen
↑ 61'
M
22
R. Kone
↑ 62'
F
30
T. Smith
↑ 61'
D
Swansea 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
L. Vigouroux
G
41
S. Parker
↓ 73'
D
5
B. Cabango
D
15
C. Burgess
D
14
J. Tymon
D
4
J. Fulton
M
21
L. Walta
↓ 66'
M
35
Ronald
⚽ 2' 🟨 90+2'
M
17
G. Franco
↓ 66'
M
7
M. Widell
↓ 76'
M
33
A. Idah
↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Fisher
G
25
J. Ward
↑ 73'
D
10
J. Eom
↑ 66'
F
8
M. Yalcouye
↑ 66'
M
44
T. Woodward
M
20
L. Cullen
↑ 76'
F
9
Z. Vipotnik
⚽ 80' ↑ 67'
F
6
M. Stamenic
M
18
Gustavo Nunes
F
Last matches: QPR
21.07.26
Fri
QPR
Wycombe
1
0
W
16.07.26
Fri
QPR
SC Wiener Neustadt
3
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
QPR
First Vienna
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
QPR
Ipswich
0
3
L
25.04.26
Cha
QPR
Derby
2
3
L
18.04.26
Cha
QPR
Millwall
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
QPR
Bristol City
0
0
D
06.04.26
Cha
QPR
Preston
1
1
D
03.04.26
Cha
QPR
Watford
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
QPR
Portsmouth
6
1
W
14.03.26
Cha
QPR
Leicester
3
1
W
11.03.26
Cha
QPR
Birmingham
0
1
L
08.03.26
Cha
QPR
Middlesbrough
0
4
L
28.02.26
Cha
QPR
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
24.02.26
Cha
QPR
Southampton
0
5
L
21.02.26
Cha
QPR
Hull City
3
1
W
14.02.26
Cha
QPR
Blackburn
1
3
L
06.02.26
Cha
QPR
Charlton
0
0
D
31.01.26
Cha
QPR
Coventry
2
1
W
24.01.26
Cha
QPR
Wrexham
2
3
L
Last matches: Swansea
24.07.26
Fri
Swansea
Udinese
2
0
W
21.07.26
Fri
Swansea
VfL Bochum
0
2
L
18.07.26
Fri
Swansea
Holstein Kiel
2
2
D
02.05.26
Cha
Swansea
Charlton
3
1
W
25.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Norwich
1
1
D
18.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Southampton
1
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Leicester
1
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
03.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Sheffield Utd
3
3
D
21.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Coventry
0
3
L
13.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Wrexham
0
2
L
10.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Portsmouth
2
1
W
07.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Stoke City
2
0
W
28.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Ipswich
0
3
L
24.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Preston
1
1
D
21.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Bristol City
1
0
W
14.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Derby
0
2
L
08.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Sheffield Wednesday
4
0
W
31.01.26
Cha
Swansea
Watford
2
0
W
24.01.26
Cha
Swansea
Hull City
1
2
L
H2H: QPR vs Swansea
21.04.26
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
2
L
22.10.25
H2H
Swansea
QPR
0
1
W
21.04.25
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
2
L
26.12.24
H2H
Swansea
QPR
3
0
L
01.04.24
H2H
Swansea
QPR
0
1
W
19.09.23
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
1
D
21.01.23
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
1
D
03.09.22
H2H
Swansea
QPR
1
0
L
07.05.22
H2H
Swansea
QPR
0
1
W
25.01.22
H2H
QPR
Swansea
0
0
D
20.04.21
H2H
Swansea
QPR
0
1
W
26.12.20
H2H
QPR
Swansea
0
2
L
11.02.20
H2H
Swansea
QPR
0
0
D
05.01.20
H2H
QPR
Swansea
5
1
W
21.08.19
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
3
L
Last matches: QPR
21.07.26
Fri
QPR
Wycombe
1
0
W
25.04.26
Cha
QPR
Derby
2
3
L
11.04.26
Cha
QPR
Bristol City
0
0
D
03.04.26
Cha
QPR
Watford
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
QPR
Portsmouth
6
1
W
08.03.26
Cha
QPR
Middlesbrough
0
4
L
28.02.26
Cha
QPR
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
14.02.26
Cha
QPR
Blackburn
1
3
L
31.01.26
Cha
QPR
Coventry
2
1
W
24.01.26
Cha
QPR
Wrexham
2
3
L
04.01.26
Cha
QPR
Sheffield Wednesday
3
0
W
01.01.26
Cha
QPR
Norwich
1
2
L
20.12.25
Cha
QPR
Leicester
4
1
W
09.12.25
Cha
QPR
Birmingham
2
1
W
06.12.25
Cha
QPR
West Brom
3
1
W
22.11.25
Cha
QPR
Hull City
3
2
W
05.11.25
Cha
QPR
Southampton
1
2
L
01.11.25
Cha
QPR
Ipswich
1
4
L
18.10.25
Cha
QPR
Millwall
1
2
L
01.10.25
Cha
QPR
Oxford United
0
0
D
H2H at home: QPR
21.04.26
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
2
L
21.04.25
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
2
L
19.09.23
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
1
D
21.01.23
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
1
D
25.01.22
H2H
QPR
Swansea
0
0
D
26.12.20
H2H
QPR
Swansea
0
2
L
05.01.20
H2H
QPR
Swansea
5
1
W
21.08.19
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
3
L
Last matches: Swansea
25.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Norwich
1
1
D
11.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Leicester
1
0
W
03.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Sheffield Utd
3
3
D
13.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Wrexham
0
2
L
10.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Portsmouth
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Ipswich
0
3
L
14.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Derby
0
2
L
31.01.26
Cha
Swansea
Watford
2
0
W
24.01.26
Cha
Swansea
Hull City
1
2
L
04.01.26
Cha
Swansea
Millwall
1
2
L
29.12.25
Cha
Swansea
Oxford United
1
0
W
26.12.25
Cha
Swansea
Coventry
0
1
L
13.12.25
Cha
Swansea
Stoke City
1
2
L
29.11.25
Cha
Swansea
West Brom
2
3
L
22.11.25
Cha
Swansea
Bristol City
0
3
L
05.11.25
Cha
Swansea
Preston
1
2
L
01.11.25
Cha
Swansea
Charlton
1
1
D
18.10.25
Cha
Swansea
Southampton
0
0
D
30.09.25
Cha
Swansea
Blackburn
2
1
W
20.09.25
Cha
Swansea
Birmingham
0
1
L
H2H away: Swansea
21.04.26
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
2
W
21.04.25
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
2
W
19.09.23
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
1
D
21.01.23
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
1
D
25.01.22
H2H
QPR
Swansea
0
0
D
26.12.20
H2H
QPR
Swansea
0
2
W
05.01.20
H2H
QPR
Swansea
5
1
L
21.08.19
H2H
QPR
Swansea
1
3
W

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15
QPR Home
46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

QPR 4 missing
-
K. Dembele
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Z. Larkeche
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
J. Dunne
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
K. Saito
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Swansea 4 missing
-
Z. Inoussa
Questionable Back Injury
OUT
-
J. Key
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
E. Galbraith
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
I. Samuels-Smith
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT