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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
QPR
FT
2 - 3
Derby
Loftus Road
Referee: J. Busby
QPR
Match Timeline
Derby
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
13'
H. Vale · Assist: D. Bennie
QPR
⚽
25'
O. Fraulo · Assist: M. Johnston
Derby
🔄
46'
A. S. Mbengue ↔ K. Adamson
QPR
🟨
53'
Sammie Szmodics
Derby
⚽
55'
R. Kone · Assist: H. Vale
QPR
🔄
61'
M. Johnston ↔ J. Banel
Derby
🔄
61'
D. Sanderson ↔ C. Forsyth
Derby
🔄
61'
O. Fraulo ↔ D. Ozoh
Derby
🔄
62'
K. Morgan ↔ N. Madsen
QPR
🔄
62'
D. Bennie ↔ R. Burrell
QPR
🟨
63'
Sondre Langås
Derby
🔄
68'
R. Kone ↔ I. Chair
QPR
🟨
70'
Rumarn Burrell
QPR
🔄
75'
L. Travis ↔ L. Salvesen
Derby
⚽
76'
S. Langas · Assist: J. Ward
Derby
🔄
79'
P. Smyth ↔ K. Saito
QPR
🟨
81'
Ben Brereton Díaz
Derby
⚽
88'
J. Banel · Assist: M. Clarke
Derby
🔄
90+1'
S. Szmodics ↔ D. Batth
Derby

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 63.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 51.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
100%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
63.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
51.9%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
QPR Win 50.5%
Draw 0%
Derby Win 49.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
QPR1.31
Derby1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
QPR QPR
WWDLW
60 GF / 69 GA
Derby Derby
WLDWL
64 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
29
BTTS Yes
29
28
Over 2.5
23
3.89
Shots on Goal
3.51

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

QPR QPR 45 matches
Derby Derby 45 matches
QPR Statistic Derby
16 Wins 19
10 Draws 9
19 Losses 17
60 Goals For 64
69 Goals Against 58
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
29 BTTS Yes 29
34 Over 1.5 34
28 Over 2.5 23
16 Over 3.5 11
10 Clean Sheets 12
12 Failed To Score 4
3.89 Shots On Goal 3.51
12.4 Total Shots 10.73
4.73 Corners 4.49
45.4% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, QPR won 5 times, Derby won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:17 from QPR's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: QPR 4-4-2 / Derby 4-2-3-1
Missing players: QPR 5, Derby 3
H2H summary: QPR wins 5, draws 3, Derby wins 7
Stats
QPR QPR
Derby Derby
Shots on Goal
12
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
3
10 Corner Kicks 6
12 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 1
55% Ball Possession 45%
24 Total Shots 12
12 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 6
7 Blocked Shots 3
13 Shots insidebox 9
11 Shots outsidebox 3
0 Goalkeeper Saves 10
359 Total passes 294
283 Passes accurate 208
2.48 expected_goals 1.13
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

QPR
Formation
Derby
P. Nardi
P. Nardi
A. S. Mbengue
↓
A. S. Mbengue
R. Edwards
R. Edwards
J. Clarke-Salter
J. Clarke-Salter
R. Norrington-Davies
R. Norrington-Davies
D. Bennie
🎯 ↓
D. Bennie
J. Varane
J. Varane
K. Morgan
↓
K. Morgan
P. Smyth
↓
P. Smyth
H. Vale
⚽ 🎯
H. Vale
R. Kone
⚽ ↓
R. Kone
J. Widell Zetterstrom
J. Widell Zetterstrom
S. Langas
⚽
S. Langas
D. Sanderson
↓
D. Sanderson
M. Clarke
🎯
M. Clarke
M. Johnston
🎯 ↓
M. Johnston
L. Travis
↓
L. Travis
O. Fraulo
⚽ ↓
O. Fraulo
J. Ward
🎯
J. Ward
S. Szmodics
↓
S. Szmodics
B. Brereton Diaz
B. Brereton Diaz
C. Morris
C. Morris
QPR 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
P. Nardi
G
27
A. S. Mbengue
↓ 46'
D
37
R. Edwards
D
6
J. Clarke-Salter
D
18
R. Norrington-Davies
D
23
D. Bennie
🎯 13' ↓ 62'
M
40
J. Varane
M
21
K. Morgan
↓ 62'
M
11
P. Smyth
↓ 79'
M
20
H. Vale
⚽ 13' 🎯 55'
F
22
R. Kone
⚽ 55' ↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
29
B. Hamer
G
10
I. Chair
↑ 68'
M
14
K. Saito
↑ 79'
F
2
K. Adamson
↑ 46'
D
28
Esquerdinha
D
26
R. Kolli
F
24
N. Madsen
↑ 62'
M
16
R. Burrell
↑ 62' 🟨 70'
F
48
I. Alemayehu Mulugeta
M
Derby 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
J. Widell Zetterstrom
G
6
S. Langas
⚽ 76' 🟨 63'
D
28
D. Sanderson
↓ 61'
D
5
M. Clarke
🎯 88'
D
22
M. Johnston
🎯 25' ↓ 61'
D
27
L. Travis
↓ 75'
M
29
O. Fraulo
⚽ 25' ↓ 61'
M
23
J. Ward
🎯 76'
M
19
S. Szmodics
↓ 90+1' 🟨 53'
M
25
B. Brereton Diaz
🟨 81'
M
9
C. Morris
F
Substitutes
31
J. Vickers
G
4
D. Batth
↑ 90+1'
D
34
J. Banel
⚽ 88' ↑ 61'
M
37
O. Eames
M
3
C. Forsyth
↑ 61'
D
15
L. Salvesen
↑ 75'
F
18
D. Ozoh
↑ 61'
M
54
C. Allen
44
I. Gordon
D
Last matches: QPR
21.07.26
Fri
QPR
Wycombe
1
0
W
16.07.26
Fri
QPR
SC Wiener Neustadt
3
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
QPR
First Vienna
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
QPR
Ipswich
0
3
L
21.04.26
Cha
QPR
Swansea
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
QPR
Millwall
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
QPR
Bristol City
0
0
D
06.04.26
Cha
QPR
Preston
1
1
D
03.04.26
Cha
QPR
Watford
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
QPR
Portsmouth
6
1
W
14.03.26
Cha
QPR
Leicester
3
1
W
11.03.26
Cha
QPR
Birmingham
0
1
L
08.03.26
Cha
QPR
Middlesbrough
0
4
L
28.02.26
Cha
QPR
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
24.02.26
Cha
QPR
Southampton
0
5
L
21.02.26
Cha
QPR
Hull City
3
1
W
14.02.26
Cha
QPR
Blackburn
1
3
L
06.02.26
Cha
QPR
Charlton
0
0
D
31.01.26
Cha
QPR
Coventry
2
1
W
24.01.26
Cha
QPR
Wrexham
2
3
L
Last matches: Derby
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
21.04.26
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
21.02.26
Cha
Derby
Watford
0
2
L
14.02.26
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
0
W
07.02.26
Cha
Derby
Ipswich
1
2
L
30.01.26
Cha
Derby
Bristol City
5
0
W
23.01.26
Cha
Derby
West Brom
1
1
D
20.01.26
Cha
Derby
Charlton
2
1
W
17.01.26
Cha
Derby
Preston
1
0
W
H2H: QPR vs Derby
25.04.26
H2H
QPR
Derby
2
3
L
25.10.25
H2H
Derby
QPR
1
0
L
14.02.25
H2H
QPR
Derby
4
0
W
05.10.24
H2H
Derby
QPR
2
0
L
18.04.22
H2H
QPR
Derby
1
0
W
29.11.21
H2H
Derby
QPR
1
2
W
23.01.21
H2H
QPR
Derby
0
1
L
04.11.20
H2H
Derby
QPR
0
1
W
25.02.20
H2H
QPR
Derby
2
1
W
30.11.19
H2H
Derby
QPR
1
1
D
22.04.19
H2H
Derby
QPR
2
0
L
06.10.18
H2H
QPR
Derby
1
1
D
06.03.18
H2H
QPR
Derby
1
1
D
21.11.17
H2H
Derby
QPR
2
0
L
31.03.17
H2H
Derby
QPR
1
0
L
Last matches: QPR
21.07.26
Fri
QPR
Wycombe
1
0
W
21.04.26
Cha
QPR
Swansea
1
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
QPR
Bristol City
0
0
D
03.04.26
Cha
QPR
Watford
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
QPR
Portsmouth
6
1
W
08.03.26
Cha
QPR
Middlesbrough
0
4
L
28.02.26
Cha
QPR
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
14.02.26
Cha
QPR
Blackburn
1
3
L
31.01.26
Cha
QPR
Coventry
2
1
W
24.01.26
Cha
QPR
Wrexham
2
3
L
04.01.26
Cha
QPR
Sheffield Wednesday
3
0
W
01.01.26
Cha
QPR
Norwich
1
2
L
20.12.25
Cha
QPR
Leicester
4
1
W
09.12.25
Cha
QPR
Birmingham
2
1
W
06.12.25
Cha
QPR
West Brom
3
1
W
22.11.25
Cha
QPR
Hull City
3
2
W
05.11.25
Cha
QPR
Southampton
1
2
L
01.11.25
Cha
QPR
Ipswich
1
4
L
18.10.25
Cha
QPR
Millwall
1
2
L
01.10.25
Cha
QPR
Oxford United
0
0
D
H2H at home: QPR
25.04.26
H2H
QPR
Derby
2
3
L
14.02.25
H2H
QPR
Derby
4
0
W
18.04.22
H2H
QPR
Derby
1
0
W
23.01.21
H2H
QPR
Derby
0
1
L
25.02.20
H2H
QPR
Derby
2
1
W
06.10.18
H2H
QPR
Derby
1
1
D
06.03.18
H2H
QPR
Derby
1
1
D
Last matches: Derby
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
21.04.26
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
21.02.26
Cha
Derby
Watford
0
2
L
30.01.26
Cha
Derby
Bristol City
5
0
W
20.01.26
Cha
Derby
Charlton
2
1
W
17.01.26
Cha
Derby
Preston
1
0
W
29.12.25
Cha
Derby
Leicester
1
2
L
26.12.25
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
1
D
15.12.25
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
3
0
W
29.11.25
Cha
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
2
L
25.11.25
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
1
W
08.11.25
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
2
1
W
01.11.25
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
3
1
W
18.10.25
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
0
1
L
27.09.25
Cha
Derby
Wrexham
1
1
D
H2H away: Derby
25.04.26
H2H
QPR
Derby
2
3
W
14.02.25
H2H
QPR
Derby
4
0
L
18.04.22
H2H
QPR
Derby
1
0
L
23.01.21
H2H
QPR
Derby
0
1
W
25.02.20
H2H
QPR
Derby
2
1
L
06.10.18
H2H
QPR
Derby
1
1
D
06.03.18
H2H
QPR
Derby
1
1
D

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Coventry
46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2
Ipswich
46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3
Millwall
46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4
Southampton
46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5
Middlesbrough
46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6
Hull City
46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7
Wrexham
46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8
Derby Away
46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9
Norwich
46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10
Birmingham
46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11
Swansea
46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12
Bristol City
46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13
Sheffield Utd
46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14
Preston
46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15
QPR Home
46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16
Watford
46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17
Stoke City
46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18
Portsmouth
46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19
Charlton
46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20
Blackburn
46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21
West Brom
46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22
Oxford United
46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23
Leicester
46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24
Sheffield Wednesday
46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

QPR 5 missing
-
K. Dembele
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Z. Larkeche
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
J. Dunne
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
K. Poku
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
K. Saito
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Derby 3 missing
-
C. Elder
Missing Fixture Toe Injury
OUT
-
B. Clark
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
P. Agyemang
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT