WORLD UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE
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Tofiq Bahramov Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 45.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
45.1%
-
BTTS Yes
71%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Qarabag Win 45.1%
Draw 14.7%
CSKA Sofia Win 40.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Qarabag2.35
CSKA Sofia1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Qarabag Qarabag
WWDLW
23 GF / 9 GA
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia
WLDWL
22 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
2.88
Average Goals Scored
2
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
3
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
9
2.5
Shots on Goal
2.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Qarabag Qarabag 8 matches
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 11 matches
Qarabag Statistic CSKA Sofia
6 Wins 7
0 Draws 1
2 Losses 3
23 Goals For 22
9 Goals Against 17
2.88 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
3 BTTS Yes 7
7 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 3
2.5 Shots On Goal 2.5
8.5 Total Shots 7.5
4.5 Corners 3
36% Ball Possession 31.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Qarabag won 2 times, CSKA Sofia won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:0 from Qarabag's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.3%)
Predicted formations: Qarabag 4-2-3-1 / CSKA Sofia 3-5-2
H2H summary: Qarabag wins 2, draws 0, CSKA Sofia wins 0
Last matches: Qarabag
16.07.26
UEF
Qarabag
Vestri
3
0
W
09.07.26
UEF
Qarabag
Vestri
3
0
W
01.07.26
Fri
Qarabag
Ferencvarosi TC
0
1
L
01.07.26
Fri
Qarabag
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2
6
L
27.06.26
Fri
Qarabag
WSG Wattens
4
0
W
24.02.26
UEF
Qarabag
Newcastle
2
3
L
18.02.26
UEF
Qarabag
Newcastle
1
6
L
28.01.26
UEF
Qarabag
Liverpool
0
6
L
21.01.26
UEF
Qarabag
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
2
W
16.01.26
Fri
Qarabag
Zaglebie Lubin
3
1
W
16.01.26
Fri
Qarabag
NK Osijek
3
1
W
12.01.26
Fri
Qarabag
Neftchi
5
0
W
10.12.25
UEF
Qarabag
Ajax
2
4
L
25.11.25
UEF
Qarabag
Napoli
0
2
L
05.11.25
UEF
Qarabag
Chelsea
2
2
D
22.10.25
UEF
Qarabag
Athletic Club
1
3
L
01.10.25
UEF
Qarabag
FC Copenhagen
2
0
W
16.09.25
UEF
Qarabag
Benfica
3
2
W
27.08.25
UEF
Qarabag
Ferencvarosi TC
2
3
L
19.08.25
UEF
Qarabag
Ferencvarosi TC
3
1
W
Last matches: CSKA Sofia
16.07.26
UEF
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
2
1
W
09.07.26
UEF
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
3
2
W
03.07.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Marek
3
0
W
28.06.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Odra Opole
3
2
W
24.06.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Polessya
0
4
L
20.06.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Brinje-Grosuplje
2
1
W
25.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
0
1
L
16.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
0
2
L
13.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
1
1
D
08.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
1
0
W
03.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
1
0
W
25.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
1
3
L
13.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
1
1
D
08.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Montana
1
0
W
04.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Beroe
3
0
W
22.03.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Dobrudzha
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
0
3
L
08.03.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
2
0
W
04.03.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Botev Vratsa
1
0
W
28.02.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
0
2
L
H2H: Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia
27.06.26
H2H
CSKA Sofia
Qarabag
0
0
D
04.07.23
H2H
CSKA Sofia
Qarabag
0
1
W
07.07.21
H2H
CSKA Sofia
Qarabag
0
1
W
Last matches: Qarabag
09.07.26
UEF
Qarabag
Vestri
3
0
W
01.07.26
Fri
Qarabag
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2
6
L
18.02.26
UEF
Qarabag
Newcastle
1
6
L
21.01.26
UEF
Qarabag
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
2
W
12.01.26
Fri
Qarabag
Neftchi
5
0
W
10.12.25
UEF
Qarabag
Ajax
2
4
L
05.11.25
UEF
Qarabag
Chelsea
2
2
D
01.10.25
UEF
Qarabag
FC Copenhagen
2
0
W
27.08.25
UEF
Qarabag
Ferencvarosi TC
2
3
L
12.08.25
UEF
Qarabag
Shkendija
5
1
W
30.07.25
UEF
Qarabag
Shelbourne
1
0
W
Last matches: CSKA Sofia
16.07.26
UEF
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
2
1
W
28.06.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Odra Opole
3
2
W
20.06.26
Fri
CSKA Sofia
Brinje-Grosuplje
2
1
W
25.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
0
1
L
16.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
0
2
L
08.05.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
1
0
W
08.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Montana
1
0
W
04.04.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Beroe
3
0
W
14.03.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
0
3
L
28.02.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fir
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
2
0
W
06.12.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Cherno More Varna
0
2
L
29.11.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Spartak Varna
4
0
W
08.11.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
1
0
W
19.10.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Dobrudzha
1
0
W
27.09.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
1
1
D
22.09.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Botev Vratsa
1
1
D
18.09.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
0
1
L
30.08.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Slavia Sofia
2
2
D
02.08.25
Fir
CSKA Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
1
L