NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE
23.04.2026 19:00
Philips Stadion
Referee: M. Nagtegaal
PSV Eindhoven
Match Timeline
PEC Zwolle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
R. Pepi · Assist: E. Bajraktarevic
PSV Eindhoven
🟨
41'
Anselmo Garcia McNulty
PEC Zwolle
⚽
51'
Z. Buurmeester
PEC Zwolle
⚽
57'
R. Pepi · Assist: E. Bajraktarevic
PSV Eindhoven
🔄
69'
J. Veerman ↔ I. Perisic
PSV Eindhoven
🔄
70'
R. Thomas ↔ T. Gooijer
PEC Zwolle
⚽
72'
S. Graves
PSV Eindhoven
⚽
73'
E. Bajraktarevic · Assist: G. Til
PSV Eindhoven
⚽
79'
C. Driouech
PSV Eindhoven
🔄
80'
Mauro Junior ↔ J. Bawuah
PSV Eindhoven
🔄
81'
R. Pepi ↔ M. Boadu
PSV Eindhoven
🔄
81'
G. Til ↔ J. Koller
PSV Eindhoven
⚽
82'
E. Bajraktarevic · Assist: C. Driouech
PSV Eindhoven
🔄
83'
K. de Rooij ↔ T. Buitink
PEC Zwolle
🔄
83'
O. Aertssen ↔ T. Velthuis
PEC Zwolle
🟨
89'
Ivan Perišić
PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 95%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 89.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
95%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
89.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.5%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
PSV Eindhoven Win 95%
Draw 0%
PEC Zwolle Win 5%
Expected Goals (xG)
PSV Eindhoven2.38
PEC Zwolle1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven
WWDLW
100 GF / 56 GA
PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle
WLDWL
40 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
2.63
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
2
29
BTTS Yes
21
31
Over 2.5
19
6.53
Shots on Goal
3.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 38 matches
PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 30 matches
PSV Eindhoven Statistic PEC Zwolle
26 Wins 8
4 Draws 10
8 Losses 12
100 Goals For 40
56 Goals Against 60
2.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 2
29 BTTS Yes 21
37 Over 1.5 26
31 Over 2.5 19
20 Over 3.5 13
7 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 5
6.53 Shots On Goal 3.57
16.37 Total Shots 9.93
6.84 Corners 3.6
59.3% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around PSV Eindhoven's more proactive style and PEC Zwolle's more cautious structure. PSV Eindhoven appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward PEC Zwolle. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. PSV Eindhoven arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 74 points compared to PEC Zwolle in 13 on 34, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward PEC Zwolle.

PSV Eindhoven Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 74 points from 30 games, PSV Eindhoven bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 24 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 84:40, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by I. Saibari (15 goals), G. Til (13 goals), R. Pepi (11 goals), with creative support from J. Veerman (14 assists), I. Perisic (10 assists), Mauro Junior (9 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the split of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. Although they are without I. Saibari, S. Dest, A. Plea, P. Wanner, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

PEC Zwolle Analysis

So far, PEC Zwolle have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 34 points from 30 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 40:60 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by K. Kostons (11 goals), K. de Rooij (6 goals), T. Oosting (6 goals), with creative support from K. Kostons (6 assists), K. de Rooij (5 assists), Y. Namli (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with S. Lagsir, J. Monteiro, J. Schendelaar unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, PSV Eindhoven won 14 times, PEC Zwolle won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 58:11 from PSV Eindhoven's perspective. 15 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 4.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: PSV Eindhoven 4-2-3-1 / PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1
Missing players: PSV Eindhoven 9, PEC Zwolle 8
H2H summary: PSV Eindhoven wins 14, draws 0, PEC Zwolle wins 1

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5 34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie